Weather Will Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Nice EPS for second week of March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 The primary issue is the next trough digging in out west is right on the heels and additional shortwave energy from that is influencing the shortwave in front. The 'good' runs had more separation/little interaction. The GFS has consistently depicted the trough diving in closer behind(plus NS interaction with the Hudson vort) which causes the shortwave to take on a neutral/negative tilt sooner and track further NW. Last few runs of the Euro have trended towards more interaction with the next trough. That wave needs to be 'left alone' in order to take a more southerly track. Current Euro run compared to 4 runs ago- I'm not sure minor improvements to our NE(increased confluence) will help that much at our latitude. If there are more significant changes in that area then it could encourage a secondary coastal low to form further south. Otherwise we need to see more separation between the wave and the upper level energy coming in behind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: Nice EPS for second week of March. At this juncture, I have my doubts. We have seen this look a lot on guidance over recent weeks, and we never get there. Maybe by early April. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: At this juncture, I have my doubts. We have seen this look a lot on guidance over recent weeks, and we never get there. Maybe by early April. You said what I was thinking. Tho I've been suggesting we need patience and this would be a March backloaded winter since back in December. Part of me wants to take psu's stance on base state and seasonal trends and say this falls apart too as it approaches. But with psu on board for this period for like the first time all winter I will likely remain open-minded... for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 24 minutes ago, CAPE said: At this juncture, I have my doubts. We have seen this look a lot on guidance over recent weeks, and we never get there. Maybe by early April. I am skeptical but hopeful….this is different as others have stated as well….we are finally getting some WPO and MJO help, the PNA is heading toward neutral, and I guess the stratwarm effects. Inside 2 weeks now…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 26 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I am skeptical but hopeful….this is different as others have stated as well….we are finally getting some WPO and MJO help, the PNA is heading toward neutral, and I guess the stratwarm effects. Inside 2 weeks now…. Interesting high amplitude MJO phase 7 and 8. Haven't seen that in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 6z icon back to the toilet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 52 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You said what I was thinking. Tho I've been suggesting we need patience and this would be a March backloaded winter since back in December. Part of me wants to take psu's stance on base state and seasonal trends and say this falls apart too as it approaches. But with psu on board for this period for like the first time all winter I will likely remain open-minded... for now. I am all into the idea of the Chuck/Hail Mary period. I'll take mid March snow. Snow anytime is good. But climo gets progressively more hostile for snow especially in the lowlands mid-late March. Would be nice to see that look move up in time for once. The Nina is decaying, so we should see some changes with the position /strength/orientation of the Aleutian ridge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 12 minutes ago, Ji said: 6z icon back to the toilet Might be time to let this one go amigo. I’m gonna wait until 18z, but it’s looking slim to grim. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 27, 2023 Author Share Posted February 27, 2023 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Might be time to let this one go amigo. I’m gonna wait until 18z, but it’s looking slim to grim. It wouldn’t take much. My thoughts are we have what we need in the east but a little more ridging in the southwest would go a long way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 26 minutes ago, Ji said: 6z icon back to the toilet Pretty sure the Icon IS the toilet. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 3 hours ago, Weather Will said: Nice EPS for second week of March. I am sure it will be Rocking in March.. so much so that someone in Westminster will get 2 inches of snow that melts before it stops snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 3 hours ago, CAPE said: The primary issue is the next trough digging in out west is right on the heels and additional shortwave energy from that is influencing the shortwave in front. The 'good' runs had more separation/little interaction. The GFS has consistently depicted the trough diving in closer behind(plus NS interaction with the Hudson vort) which causes the shortwave to take on a neutral/negative tilt sooner and track further NW. Last few runs of the Euro have trended towards more interaction with the next trough. That wave needs to be 'left alone' in order to take a more southerly track. Current Euro run compared to 4 runs ago- I'm not sure minor improvements to our NE(increased confluence) will help that much at our latitude. If there are more significant changes in that area then it could encourage a secondary coastal low to form further south. Otherwise we need to see more separation between the wave and the upper level energy coming in behind. You are spot on as usual but I think its important to note that the reason this is a huge problem and not just a minor one is that the mean thermal boundary position as the wave approaches is 200 miles to our NW. IF the boundary was to our south we could survive minor imperfections and an initial wave tracking to our west. I am not even sure it would track as far west if the boundary was further south. The flow is reasonably suppressive but the issue is a developing low pressure will track along the thermal boundary, so no matter how much confluence there is if that boundary is way to the north its a big big problem. Again, with the thermals the way they are we need everything to be absolutely perfect...and even then it can still fail as we've seen a couple times this year. Substitute a cold antecedent airmass and this setup would work imo. Again you're not wrong in diagnosing why this specific event is having trouble within the thermals we have to work with...I am just pointing out that our easier path to a win is to get a setup where there is actually a cold antecedent airmass...then we have way way more wiggle room for win scenarios v needing 8 million things to all go perfectly. 2 hours ago, CAPE said: At this juncture, I have my doubts. We have seen this look a lot on guidance over recent weeks, and we never get there. Maybe by early April. I will play the optimist here... I think there are some notable differences. Namely XYZ here. X is a new feature...that mid latitude trough under the north Pac high changes the equation some. Instead of a full latitude ridge there with promotes a full latitude trough on the west coast...that trough undercutting the ridge encourages some ridging into the southwest...Y. That is just enough combined with the shorter March wavelengths and the effects of the true retrograding block to result is Z which is finally the SER is totally eradicated. It's not just suppressed on that prog its gone, bye bye, finito. Obviously it can be wrong, and I am breaking with my mantra all season here...but I do think this time has a legit chance to be different and a meaningful change to the longwave pattern. Whether its in time to save us is another story. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It wouldn’t take much. My thoughts are we have what we need in the east but a little more ridging in the southwest would go a long way. There would have been some moves, subtle or explicit, by now I think. They are all trending toward the GFS. Yeah, things have changed before as we got closer, but nothing is budging and the GFS has been pretty consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 I will play the optimist here... I think there are some notable differences. Namely XYZ here. X is a new feature...that mid latitude trough under the north Pac high changes the equation some. Instead of a full latitude ridge there with promotes a full latitude trough on the west coast...that trough undercutting the ridge encourages some ridging into the southwest...Y. That is just enough combined with the shorter March wavelengths and the effects of the true retrograding block to result is Z which is finally the SER is totally eradicated. It's not just suppressed on that prog its gone, bye bye, finito. Obviously it can be wrong, and I am breaking with my mantra all season here...but I do think this time has a legit chance to be different and a meaningful change to the longwave pattern. Whether its in time to save us is another story. IF this pans out in the timeframe depicted above, we’ll likely get one shot at a biggie. It’s early enough to make some magic happen. If it’s kicked down the road to the end of march, maybe not, and we watch nyc to Boston have an epic backend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 It’s encouraging the see both the EPS and GEFS annihilate the SER around the 10th. Just hope it holds. Combine that with legit blocking, and that’s how we overcome the PAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 I don't know.. this looks good to me. We have a +PDO setup and strong -NAO still when this rolls east Models lost a lot of the moisture they were showing earlier for during and after the time.. yesterday was a drier day so they seem extrasensitive to current conditions. edit: it's still pretty wet. I'm getting frustrated that it's not showing an organized system because of sheering out SER. The upper latitudes with the ridge bridge look good. There's a lot of moisture everywhere still. (It does look like the window closes early in the LR). If the SE ridge is running as an independent feature, there is going to be more moisture in the pattern too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Might be time to let this one go amigo. I’m gonna wait until 18z, but it’s looking slim to grim. Now tracking to see if it is close enough to easily chase and see snow fall on Friday... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Now tracking to see if it is close enough to easily chase and see snow fall on Friday...I’m headed up to NY from the 3rd-5th. Non storm related but excited that the timing lines up nonetheless. If you can make it happen, it’s good for the weenie soul.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: You are spot on as usual but I think its important to note that the reason this is a huge problem and not just a minor one is that the mean thermal boundary position as the wave approaches is 200 miles to our NW. IF the boundary was to our south we could survive minor imperfections and an initial wave tracking to our west. I am not even sure it would track as far west if the boundary was further south. The flow is reasonably suppressive but the issue is a developing low pressure will track along the thermal boundary, so no matter how much confluence there is if that boundary is way to the north its a big big problem. Again, with the thermals the way they are we need everything to be absolutely perfect...and even then it can still fail as we've seen a couple times this year. Substitute a cold antecedent airmass and this setup would work imo. Again you're not wrong in diagnosing why this specific event is having trouble within the thermals we have to work with...I am just pointing out that our easier path to a win is to get a setup where there is actually a cold antecedent airmass...then we have way way more wiggle room for win scenarios v needing 8 million things to all go perfectly. I will play the optimist here... I think there are some notable differences. Namely XYZ here. X is a new feature...that mid latitude trough under the north Pac high changes the equation some. Instead of a full latitude ridge there with promotes a full latitude trough on the west coast...that trough undercutting the ridge encourages some ridging into the southwest...Y. That is just enough combined with the shorter March wavelengths and the effects of the true retrograding block to result is Z which is finally the SER is totally eradicated. It's not just suppressed on that prog its gone, bye bye, finito. Obviously it can be wrong, and I am breaking with my mantra all season here...but I do think this time has a legit chance to be different and a meaningful change to the longwave pattern. Whether its in time to save us is another story. The thermal boundary being displaced to our northwest has been the core issue with the pattern since at least the beginning of Jan.. I see the difference in the advertised look here and ofc that is a more favorable h5 pattern, but we have seen model simulations depicting this general progression on the LR means/extended products previously, and it doesn't verify/reverts back to the same general unfavorable look- Aleutian ridge/western trough/SER. I know because I have been one of the optimistic ones posting those 'improved' LR looks the last couple months lol. This time it might be more believable, as the Nina continues to weaken and we head towards Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: The thermal boundary being displaced to our northwest has been the core issue with the pattern. I see the difference in the advertised look here and ofc that is a more favorable h5 pattern, but we have seen model simulations depicting this general progression on the LR means/extended products previously, but doesn't verify/everts back to the same general unfavorable look- Aleutian ridge/western trough/SER. I know because I have been one of the optimistic ones posting those 'improved' LR looks the last couple months lol. This time it might be more believable, as the Nina continues to weaken and we head towards Spring. Imo there are several factors that make it more believable. Often as wavelengths shorten the same forcing has different results. We’ve seen this in Nina’s before. Additionally, the tropical forcing is less hostile. We’ve not seen a strong wave into 7/8 all season. We saw some waves projected to weakly skim through but nothing that would seriously alter the forcing imo. Of course this could be a mirage but this isn’t the same tease we’ve seen. The pac is altered somewhat finally. It’s not exactly the same. All winter we had the same forcing but expected different results and I saw signs of the same background base state just muted in the long range progs. It was predictable those muted traits would become more pronounced. This time I think there is a chance the equation has actually changed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Need to see some positive movement during this cycle. Doesn't need to be a flush hit, but some kind of better confluence, souther track...anything to keep hope-ium alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 ICON is a poor start to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 54 minutes ago, jayyy said: It’s encouraging the see both the EPS and GEFS annihilate the SER around the 10th. Just hope it holds. Combine that with legit blocking, and that’s how we overcome the PAC. The h5 look on the EPS is much better than the GEFS for that period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Good thing it's March. Shorter 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: You are spot on as usual but I think its important to note that the reason this is a huge problem and not just a minor one is that the mean thermal boundary position as the wave approaches is 200 miles to our NW. IF the boundary was to our south we could survive minor imperfections and an initial wave tracking to our west. I am not even sure it would track as far west if the boundary was further south. The flow is reasonably suppressive but the issue is a developing low pressure will track along the thermal boundary, so no matter how much confluence there is if that boundary is way to the north its a big big problem. Again, with the thermals the way they are we need everything to be absolutely perfect...and even then it can still fail as we've seen a couple times this year. Substitute a cold antecedent airmass and this setup would work imo. Again you're not wrong in diagnosing why this specific event is having trouble within the thermals we have to work with...I am just pointing out that our easier path to a win is to get a setup where there is actually a cold antecedent airmass...then we have way way more wiggle room for win scenarios v needing 8 million things to all go perfectly. I will play the optimist here... I think there are some notable differences. Namely XYZ here. X is a new feature...that mid latitude trough under the north Pac high changes the equation some. Instead of a full latitude ridge there with promotes a full latitude trough on the west coast...that trough undercutting the ridge encourages some ridging into the southwest...Y. That is just enough combined with the shorter March wavelengths and the effects of the true retrograding block to result is Z which is finally the SER is totally eradicated. It's not just suppressed on that prog its gone, bye bye, finito. Obviously it can be wrong, and I am breaking with my mantra all season here...but I do think this time has a legit chance to be different and a meaningful change to the longwave pattern. Whether its in time to save us is another story. Yeah shorter wavelengths are big because otherwise that's just a woosh, fast flow, out to sea, suppressed, or squashed pattern. I love this look in March though. And (nerd voice) EXTRAPOLATING, there's your big storm circled, hour 390 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: The h5 look on the EPS is much better than the GEFS for that period. here's to hoping the EPS is correct, because this is pretty much as good of a look you could have for a high-end storm strong -EPO providing Arctic air, decaying west-based -NAO, stout semi-permanent 50/50, and a strong S/W ejecting out of the west and amplifying underneath the block 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 The GEFS has the same pacific progression its just losing the blocking way faster and flipping the AO back positive. So the question you have to ask is after such a SSW that did lead to a total wind reversal and subsequent obliteration of the SPV which then coupled with the TPV leading to blocking...do we believe the slower progression there of the EPS or the quick rebound of the GEFS. ETA: FWIW the GEPS is more in the EPS camp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The GEFS has the same pacific progression its just losing the blocking way faster and flipping the AO back positive. So the question you have to ask is after such a SSW that did lead to a total wind reversal and subsequent obliteration of the SPV which then coupled with the TPV leading to blocking...do we believe the slower progression there of the EPS or the quick rebound of the GEFS. ETA: FWIW the GEPS is more in the EPS camp I would believe that the blocking wouldn't just evaporate into thin air like that after the SPV has been torn to shreds. it usually sticks around into April, even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Can already tell this run ain't it yall. I'm sorry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: I would believe that the blocking wouldn't just evaporate into thin air like that after the SPV has been torn to shreds. it usually sticks around into April, even Agree which is why I am hopeful for this period. I think the GEFS is rushing the high latitude recovery. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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