Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Stronger hp on the cmc, slightly better positioning. LP strength may mitigate that tho. Still close and not a cave to gfs imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Moderate snow/frozen from 123. Heavy snow at 135 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Hmmm, coastal NC weakness. Miller B-ish Eta: CAD signal now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 CMC is what we want/need 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Nice...0z vs 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 For this year, it's a legit beatdown on the CMC...but alas...it's the CMC Sign me up 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Kind of sucks to see the NAO trend upward just in time for phase 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 22 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: This may mean the Severe Thread needs some attention. 3 closed-low, cutting into a -NAO block lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 GEFS looks to follow the OP thru 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 re: 12z gfs Closed 500mb low rolling into the west coast.. -EPO. closed 50/50 low. This is the one I want to watch (what's diving into the WC). m 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 if euro/eps/geps improve like cmc did or hold i wouldn't be worried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Have the GfS and Euro agreed at all this winter? We always get the CMC and Icon for a few runs and maybe the euro or gfs. But never both gfs and euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 7 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Kind of sucks to see the NAO trend upward just in time for phase 8. A -NAO trending towards neutral isn’t bad, especially if the numerical trend is because the blocking is retrograding west into Canada which is increasing the NAO in the east region of the NAO domain. That’s not a bad look for us. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windycutter Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Not sure if this was posted from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 KU setup imo.. it could change. Biggest threat to change is that Aleutian island high needs to break in pattern.. we have rain going up into the Davis Straight and Alaska.. sometimes that high latitude stuff trends back to -PNA. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 The GEFS is going to be slightly improved from the 6z run. There's at least some reflection of a HP up north now. It's not much, but something 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Just now, Newman said: The GEFS is going to be slightly improved from the 6z run. There's at least some reflection of a HP up north now. It's not much, but something That high is what's kicking the low north. Low needs to be in front or at the same time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 GEFS is at least slightly improved. more confluence and a slightly weaker vort 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 SE ridge is pumping up every run. The storm is too slow and needs to be about 12 hours faster for confluence to really matter. The CMC and the Euro have been steadily headed north along with the icon. We all know where this is headed unless timing works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Compared to it's 00z counterpart, the 12z CMC has a much stronger and better placed high over Canada. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS is at least slightly improved. more confluence and a slightly weaker vort And I see better separation between the vort and the one behind it. Maybe if this trend continues, ridging over montana can keep this vort pos tilted just a wee bit longer. It’s not much and it’s just one run, but it’s something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windycutter Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Now at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windycutter Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, windycutter said: Now at 12z Gfs like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 12 minutes ago, Terpeast said: And I see better separation between the vort and the one behind it. Maybe if this trend continues, ridging over montana can keep this vort pos tilted just a wee bit longer. It’s not much and it’s just one run, but it’s something. Agreed. And it's 5 days out so there is actually time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 GEPS has more confluence. should be good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 GEPS actually took a nice step south 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: These are rough times, but I kinda would feel better with the GFS on our side than the Euro. *runs and hides* But wait a minute...Remember last month when the GFS was totally on it's own showing a favorable solution for literally DAYS before finally folding? That's why I'm not sure how much to trust it right now, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEPS actually took a nice step south The system that crosses the MA and SNE area 90-108 hours is likely to have an impact on heights and subsequently this event...not sure models are not going to really see that for another 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: But wait a minute...Remember last month when the GFS was totally on it's own showing a favorable solution for literally DAYS before finally folding? That's why I'm not sure how much to trust it right now, lol Even if the GFS is right with the track, it's probably at least 10mbs too deep with the pressure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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