Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: It is OK for 5 days out. We have a few hits and we have an extreme outlier. The concerning part is the outlier has been most consistent and the hits moved towards it. But still, not a bad spot attm. All we can do is keep on trackin It's hard to say. Is that "extreme outlier" (GFS, I assume you mean) really all that extreme? OK, I would maybe doubt that much of a wound up system and maybe not quite that far west as what the 00Z GFS showed. But the end result...too far north and west where we just get rain...is hardly an outlier at this point. Maybe that sounds a bit cynical, but you know what I mean. And you're right, all we can do for the next couple of days is keep on trackin'. If this goes totally down the sh*tter by Monday or Tuesday, well, that will probably be the end of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: 2 for 3 so far. In Euro we trust! LFG! But coming north is a trend to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 The other models have more confluence pressing down. GFS has the confluence further north and not as strong. That's basically the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 brutal runs tonight...oof 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 with the mood in here you'd think that we went from snow to cold rain on every model lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 CMC 990mb primary gets overtaken by a 996mb coastal low, also a strange solution. Coastal lows almost never end up being weaker than the primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ji said: brutal runs tonight...oof Not sure I'd necessarily say brutal, but I sure as hell wish the GFS would have at least given a hat-tip to the more favorable solutions that's for sure! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Vorts over Texas really aren’t that far apart from GFS vs CMC…the Canadian has this blocking feature, GFS has it north and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 not comfortable at all being bullseyed 5-6d out but all we can do is watch the next model runs come out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Not sure I'd necessarily say brutal, but I sure as hell wish the GFS would have at least given a hat-tip to the more favorable solutions that's for sure! the euro is already going towards the GFS and we lost all our OP suppressed solutions...how are we going to survive 4 more days of trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 gefs looks nw so far, but maybe it's good we get our nw trend now rather than later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 lets just hope the first storm in our new pattern(March 8th-33rd) isnt rain. We cant afford to waste any more storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 7 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: with the mood in here you'd think that we went from snow to cold rain on every model lmao That’s a lot because of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 i see even in MJO Phase 8--the gfs is still giving us cutters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Just now, North Balti Zen said: That’s a lot because of you true that lol--he created the mood and then are faulting people for being down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: not comfortable at all being bullseyed 5-6d out but all we can do is watch the next model runs come out Well then the gfs should have been thrilling for you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Just now, Ji said: the euro is already going towards the GFS and we lost all our OP suppressed solutions...how are we going to survive 4 more days of trends Well, that's a fair point, it did seem the Euro went more toward the GFS (I assume you're talking about the 18Z Euro ensemble mostly?). But right now, it's hard to really say which model is moving which solution. The 00Z GFS actually seemed to up the ante with that even farther north and west solution, and quite wound up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ji said: true that lol--he created the mood and then are faulting people for being down my bad for posting model outputs and then giving my take on the general trend this could go in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 who was the moron that was worried about suppression the past 2 days? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: my bad for posting model outputs and then giving my take on the general trend this could go in! Somehow you’ve made getting flush hit on two models terrible. And then made getting missed by one even more terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: Somehow you’ve made getting flush hit on two models terrible. And then made getting missed even more terrible. if my posts are affecting ur mood then that's on you lmao and i said how the icon and cmc being great were good and bad in their own ways respectively so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 10 minutes ago, Ji said: i see even in MJO Phase 8--the gfs is still giving us cutters GFS has no blocking. This a year for cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 38 minutes ago, Amped said: If the GFS ends up verifying this time winter is rigged against us. I WANT A RECOUNT HAHA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 The UKMET is going to save us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 There's another threat at day 10 on the GFS op, so we have that going for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 8 minutes ago, Ruin said: I WANT A RECOUNT HAHA Problem is the recount would be done by the heat miser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Ukmet north so euro will prob be north too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Just on the ensembles, 7 out of the last 9 gefs runs had the low track to our NW. Canadian too inconsistent to do a run by run trend analysis. Couldn’t check Euro because TT only goes out to 90h on off runs. i think this is another mirage as the block hasn’t yet established itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 GEPS is absolutely insane 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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