stormtracker Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 129, precip on the move from SW to NE, but pushes the 0 line back to our north in PA as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 On 2/25/2023 at 9:52 PM, AtlanticWx said: hour 66, that wednesday storm is fairly south on the gfs looks like a euro cave, wondering what implications this is gonna have on our storm Expand Not looking for awesome just better 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 On 2/25/2023 at 10:06 PM, stormtracker said: 129, precip on the move from SW to NE, but pushes the 0 line back to our north in PA as wellWould be nice if it was cold obviously, but the EURO is showing it snowing at 35 or so - so idk if the 0 line is of the utmost importance. We just kinda need to get smoked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 GFS still looks to be negative tilting too early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 this run is DEFINITELY an improvement. snowing in western areas at 135 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 The trough looks slightly more positive which I'm assuming is better. Really gonna need a strong high to the north for this one I think..at least with the gulf open for business like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Nothing to see here. It ends up like 12z. GFS not budging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 let's see gefs but if we get one more cold shift like this (12z -> 18z) we'll likely have atl some snow to start off with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 On 2/25/2023 at 10:09 PM, stormtracker said: Nothing to see here. It ends up like 12z. GFS not budging. Expand Just amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 it's not a banger by any means but if we look at the glass half full, i'd take this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 At the very least, the GFS has trended to improving the block over Greenland and weakening the WAR during the past 3 runs. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 A 978 low in Kentucky is not great. Need it to be way less strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 One Difference between 12z euro and this gfs run is on the euro, the pacific ridge develops and runs overtop of the western trough, keeping the trough strongly positive. That delays amplification that you see on 18z gfs (an apps runner) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 All those beers today for nothing!? Screw off HH GFS! I only listen to King Euro (Dr No) anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 On 2/25/2023 at 10:09 PM, stormtracker said: Nothing to see here. It ends up like 12z. GFS not budging.Verbatim it’s 2-3” along the PA/MD border but nowhere near what most of us want, sadly. Big run-to-run shift looking at snow though so not like GFS is being a pillar of consistency 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 That vorticity lobe over the southern end of Hudson Bay needs to pivot eastward sooner. It is in phase with the ejecting southern wave then digs in behind and tugs it north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 On 2/25/2023 at 10:14 PM, paulythegun said: One Difference between 12z euro and this gfs run is on the euro, the pacific ridge develops and runs overtop of the western trough, keeping the trough strongly positive. That delays amplification that you see on 18z gfs (an apps runner) Expand Agreed, keeping the troff positively tilted like the Euro is key here. The blocking is never going to force a 976MB bomb over W KY to reform east of Ocean City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 gefs run to run change, liking what i see so far (faster piece, lower heights in the 50/50 region and slightly more blocking) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 On 2/25/2023 at 10:19 PM, Amped said: Agreed, keeping the troff positively tilted like the Euro is key here. The blocking is never going to force a 976MB bomb over W KY to reform east of Ocean City. Expand Maybe if it was over W TN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 gefs definitely looks south! will post in a min 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 On 2/25/2023 at 10:42 PM, AtlanticWx said: Expand That looks better but not better enough if we get a neg tilt sub 980 bomb in W KY..those iso bars in TX look ominous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 On 2/25/2023 at 10:49 PM, BristowWx said: That looks better but not better enough if we get a neg tilt sub 980 bomb in W KY..those iso bars in TX look ominous. Expand Yep. Shift that configuration closer towards the Miss River and we party. Otherwise that looks like she's gone negative in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Looks like it's caving to the euro slowly each run 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 On 2/25/2023 at 10:58 PM, Chris78 said: Looks like it's caving to the euro slowly each run Expand Remembering when it was stubborn in showing a hit earlier this winter and slowly caved to the others! We shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Hopium take: gfs had a “bad” run yesterday and it’s still flushing it out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 On 2/25/2023 at 10:53 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Yep. Shift that configuration closer towards the Miss River and we party. Otherwise that looks like she's gone negative in a hurry. Expand And there is only an upper 1020 H in the N Plains. Not a 1040 elephant pressing down. There is work to be done on the GFS before we see anything close to what we want…little shifts south just make the colder rain last longer here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 to think this is the lowest output from an ensemble for our threat 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 GEFS is more favorable than 12z… lower heights in SE Canada and a slightly less amped S/W 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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