clskinsfan Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1020ish HP over the top isnt good enough. Need it to be at least 1030. At least historically we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: I am getting set for the epic HH run (lol). First up- a quick and dirty Old Fashioned in a frosted glass. We garnish with turds now? Fits the winter I guess. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: As is, it's close for this far out. But it's rain for I-95 back to HGR. Goes over to light to mod snow for I-95 after heavy rains. Around hr 234 Strangely, that's not as bad an outcome as I would have thought given how things looked earlier on. Just need to punch that damned SER down more, somehow, some way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Not a bad run. Key features just a little off from 12z run, specifically the timing/location/strength of the vortices underneath the developing NAO ridge. Less confluence and weaker surface HP in eastern Canada as the low approaches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We garnish with turds now? Fits the winter I guess. Cocktail cherry dummy. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, CAPE said: Not a bad run. Key features just a little off from 12z run, specifically the timing/location/strength of the vortices underneath the developing NAO ridge. Less confluence and weaker surface HP in eastern Canada as the low approaches. Agree. It wouldn't take much with that depiction. Definitely don't expect models to nail down key features rn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: Agree. It wouldn't take much with that depiction. Definitely don't expect models to nail down key features rn Yeah lets wait and see what the GEFS has. Last 2 ens runs were pretty similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 1020ish HP over the top isnt good enough. Need it to be at least 1030. At least historically we do. It would take a 1080ish this year. And a 1012 low would plow right into it and muscle it out of the way. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Coastal redevelopment quite a bit souther on the 18z GEFS for the 28th event. Big improvement and great track for SNE. Maybe the trend continues? Sometimes models don't quite 'see' the block at range. P sure that one is in the weenie handbook. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Let’s see if the MJO is really going to head into Phase 8. I think that is the shakeup we need to move this pattern. If it stays in the null, we stay in the null for snow…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 17 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Agree. It wouldn't take much with that depiction. Definitely don't expect models to nail down key features rn Or a week from now for that matter.. The closest we're getting to snow this year is the Big Bear Eagle's nest 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Let’s see if the MJO is really going to headinto Phase 8. I think that is the shakeup we need to move this pattern. If it stays in the null, we stay in the null for snow…. The MJO is probably never gonna get "there" as long as we are in a Nina. Even in a decaying Nina, by the time the atmosphere responds it will be March 27th or something. Best to stop looking at it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: The MJO is probably never gonna get "there" as long as we are in a Nina. Even in a decaying Nina, by the time the atmosphere responds it will be March 27th or something. Best to stop looking at it. Then what mechanism/forcing moves the SER? The strat. warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2023 Author Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 hours ago, clskinsfan said: Speaking of the Pacific. Blizzard warnings in Los Angeles County right now. #WeREALLYsuckatwinter. Base state 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 It’s going to be like 100 degrees tomorrow. Go outside and ignore the models. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Then what mechanism/forcing moves the SER? The strat. warm? The Nina needs to continue to decay. That will shift the location of the persistent +height anomalies in the Pacific, and thus the location of the downstream trough and eastern ridge. We need a longwave pattern phase shift, and it probably wont happen in a major way until our climo goes to crap in the Spring. Good news is these features never stay fixed in one location. A few tweaks on the Pacific side with a favorable NA, in conjunction with shorter wavelengths as we approach Spring can get it done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, snowfan said: It’s going to be like 100 degrees tomorrow. Go outside and ignore the models. But what do the models say about winter 24-25? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, nj2va said: But what do the models say about winter 24-25? Don’t worry, next year there will always be next year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 18z GEFS is meh. Signal for a NW track on the mean is pretty strong. A step back from 12z, but still way out there. Look at the changes we are seeing for the 28th the last couple runs. Long way to go. The BASE STATE is Pacific suckage. That isn't going to change anytime soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: 18z GEFS is meh. Signal for a NW track on the mean is pretty strong. A step back from 12z, but still way out there. Look at the changes we are seeing for the 28th the last couple runs. Long way to go. The BASE STATE is Pacific suckage. That isn't going to change anytime soon. 0z is gonna be rockin'. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 0z is gonna be rockin'. If by rocking you mean thunderstorms, then yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 12 hours ago, TSSN+ said: The fact anyone still looking for snow this winter is pretty funny. Hang it up folks. Where is Joe Bastardi??? I am still waiting for his record breaking winter weather in the east for the 5th time this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Comma head snow at hr 237 Someone do the math for me, how many days is that? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 18z GEFS is meh. Signal for a NW track on the mean is pretty strong. A step back from 12z, but still way out there. Look at the changes we are seeing for the 28th the last couple runs. Long way to go. The BASE STATE is Pacific suckage. That isn't going to change anytime soon.That Feb 28 storm was off the nc coast 3 days ago lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 9 minutes ago, Ji said: That Feb 28 storm was off the nc coast 3 days ago lol Oh I am sure there was a random op run or 2 where that was the case. In addition to tracking to Cleveland, Minneapolis, and Savannah Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: 18z GEFS is meh. Signal for a NW track on the mean is pretty strong. A step back from 12z, but still way out there. Look at the changes we are seeing for the 28th the last couple runs. Long way to go. The BASE STATE is Pacific suckage. That isn't going to change anytime soon. Is our BASE STATE due to climate change? I’ll see myself out now and suspend my account until the day it snows. I’ll miss you all, but I have 7,953 beers in my fridge. That should be enough days to see snow again right!? I’m terrible at math. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said: Where is Joe Bastardi??? I am still waiting for his record breaking winter weather in the east for the 5th time this year. In between all the conspiracy theories he says frigid March inbound! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 WB latest extended GEFS coming in colder for mid month… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB latest extended GEFS coming in colder for mid month… CFS is in agreement during this period: Then has a half decent H5 look towards the end of March with a semblance of a ridge out West, a -NAO, and a flat SER: It keeps the BN theme going thru the first week of April: Enjoy the warm day tomorrow while you can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Every week, deja vù. A D10 threat. Fuck it, maybe we get one monster to take us above climo in an otherwise god awful winter, like we saw in 2016. Idgaf how we get there honestly if it pans out. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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