Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 18z guidance is beefing up and moved north with the axis of snow for Tuesday. The HRRR nam and 3km all like rt 2 south through central CT and then out east to SE MASS for a swath of 2-4” snow where it is cold enough .. down here in southern CT, we look to be a bit too warm and maybe the southern edge of heavier rates. However, the exact axis of the band has been waffling and this is a nowcast event so we track. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Lol that’s 4-8” of heavy, wet tree snapping snow there. I have 1-3” out as my call. I guess it just might snow! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: 18z guidance is beefing up and moved north with the axis of snow for Tuesday. The HRRR nam and 3km all like rt 2 south through central CT and then out east to SE MASS for a swath of 2-4” snow where it is cold enough .. down here in southern CT, we look to be a bit too warm and maybe the southern edge of heavier rates. However, the exact axis of the band has been waffling and this is a nowcast event so we track. Unfortunately places along the shore and valleys in southern CT look too warm for any accumulations which would go along with seasonal trends. The 75 day accumulating snowless drought for @The 4 Seasons looks to continue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Just now, CT Rain said: Went coating-2" for most of CT but damn the 18z NAM run is impressive. Yeah it’s really deep lift. Kind of weird how strong and deep the omega is on the NAM but not so much other guidance. It does seem to be leading the trend on 2/21 though. But prob good to hedge quite a bit here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Lol that’s 4-8” of heavy, wet tree snapping snow there. I have 1-3” out as my call. I guess it just might snow! You stole my snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: You stole my snow lol I think that’s Nam doing Nam stuff. It’s going to have trouble accumulating the first few hours I think. Even in hills 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Unfortunately places along the shore and valleys in southern CT look too warm for any accumulations which would go along with seasonal trends. The 75 day accumulating snowless drought for @The 4 Seasons looks to continue. Could be one of those situations where it's relatively easy to cool to 32F if rates pick up enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think that’s Nam doing Nam stuff. It’s going to have trouble accumulating the first few hours I think. Even in hills Hrrr went north and 3km. We will see.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Could be one of those situations where it's relatively easy to cool to 32F if rates pick up enough. Ya I’d like to see that heavier swath tick back south to encompass southern CT as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Might cut back on temps being borderline especially to start but hills above 500’ look good. Haven’t had the chance to look at soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 NWS not enthused yet for CT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Unfortunately places along the shore and valleys in southern CT look too warm for any accumulations which would go along with seasonal trends. The 75 day accumulating snowless drought for @The 4 Seasons looks to continue. 71 days but who's counting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: 18z NAM Boy what a surprise is right if that verifies, a lot of people again, will be caught off guard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Other years I’d be thinking lolli’s to 10” This year I’m worried if it even sticks 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Hrrr went north and 3km. We will see.. Those might tick north again a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 8 minutes ago, DJln491 said: NWS not enthused yet for CT That’s a map that starts at 1pm Tuesday so it would miss anything overnight and tomorrow morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That’s a map that starts at 1pm Tuesday so it would miss anything overnight and tomorrow morning. Kind of weird they would issue that then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Might cut back on temps being borderline especially to start but hills above 500’ look good. Haven’t had the chance to look at soundings. Here’s the 3k sounding near BDL at 09z. Looks pretty cold actually just off the deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That’s a map that starts at 1pm Tuesday so it would miss anything overnight and tomorrow morning. lol. clearly indicated where it says in big letters Tues 1pm, which I clearly missed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Just now, DJln491 said: lol. clearly indicated where it says in big letters Tues 1pm, which I clearly missed. Beer? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Beer? soon. in my defense...that's a weird map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Thunder snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTBFFH1905 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 23 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: 18z NAM This looks promising! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Good luck S of pike, hopefully misses here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 52 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it’s really deep lift. Kind of weird how strong and deep the omega is on the NAM but not so much other guidance. It does seem to be leading the trend on 2/21 though. But prob good to hedge quite a bit here. I thought there were 2 areas of snow? Looks like just one through SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 This looks better, congrats Ginxy! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 18z GFS looks a bit juicier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 10 minutes ago, CT Rain said: 18z GFS looks a bit juicier. 17 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: This looks better, congrats Ginxy! Take the over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 14 minutes ago, CT Rain said: 18z GFS looks a bit juicier. May need to take em up. Everything is juiced . If Euro follows .. juice it up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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