Very persistent signal for moderate snow and ice impact between "Wed night" and "Thur night" this week

[dryslot]

Nice stripe of heavy snow down there too on the 3k as well.

[tamarack]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

up here gyx is 2-4 for tomorrow up here with a short period of heavy rates.

Only an inch here, but we'll more than make up for that in the late week event.

[Damage In Tolland]

That would be nice but man I just cannot buy that . 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

That would be nice but man I just cannot buy that . 

Yeah... it has been inconsistent with placement of that stripe.  Toss

[HoarfrostHubb]

Although HRRR and NAM are trying their best to salvage some snow somewhere tomorrow...

 

[CoastalWx]

Tblizz magic strikes again?

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Tblizz magic strikes again?

Would be pretty fitting. Throws a tantrum and then is shoveling 4” of snow the next day. 

[dryslot]

SEMA is a magical place.

[metagraphica]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya let’s get this POS done, and see if we can’t capitalize with something post 2/23? All the best to the folks in CNE with this. 

Come on, you're not looking forward to more 39 degree rain??  Enjoy it. Savor it.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Would be pretty fitting. Throws a tantrum and then is shoveling 4” of snow the next day. 

I’ll be shoveling him into the Taunton River if that gradient happens. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Can someone post 3K if have it ?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

For any Tuesday snow to happen and accumulate , are we gonna need heavy rates 

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Can someone post 3K if have it ?

Have at it

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Have at it

DIT just logged onto insa.com. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Have at it

Oh it’s all south of here . Sounded like was for everyone 

[dryslot]

12z Nam with a shit sandwich for pike north.

[TalcottWx]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ll be shoveling him into the Taunton River if that gradient happens. 

I'll pick you up, I'll drive us there, and pay for the gas. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Nam basically rain Now for CP to about NH border now for Thursday ...cool 

[TalcottWx]

I'm not even sure what I'm looking at in terms of a run to run difference there on the Nam. How does it jump like that run to run. Skeptical. Especially this close to tuesday

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Nam basically rain Now for CP to about NH border now for Thursday ...cool 

yeah ticked north again. 3 in a row

[mahk_webstah]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z Nam with a shit sandwich for pike north.

that's pulse #1?  It is looking foothillsy until one gets to Maine.  That probably comes south a bit I'd think given the way the precip and cold air has been oriented in the models up to this point.  Big question is does it rot the midlevels for many of us for pulse#2 that is due to come in Thursday evening I think.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

that's pulse #1?  It is looking foothillsy until one gets to Maine.  That probably comes south a bit I'd think given the way the precip and cold air has been oriented in the models up to this point.  Big question is does it rot the midlevels for many of us for pulse#2 that is due to come in Thursday evening I think.

Tuesday hasn't looked good for more then maybe 1-2" for a few days over your way to here, Thursday looks like 4-8" in a swath running from west to east over CNE and SW Maine north to the capitol district.

[Damage In Tolland]

Why is the Jersey guy laughing at everyone’s posts about north trends!

[ORH_wxman]

Rgem has the Tuesday morning stuff too but much weaker with it. Maybe a coating to an inch type deal south of pike. 

[Damage In Tolland]

What happened to the idea that the Tuesday wave would force Thursday wage south/ colder ?

[MJO812]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

What happened to the idea that the Tuesday wave would force Thursday wage south/ colder ?

Ridge too strong 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

What happened to the idea that the Tuesday wave would force Thursday wage south/ colder ?

I mean, it has. This 2/23 event is already quite a bit south from what it was 2-3 days ago. But we’re fighting other variables too. The lead 2/21 wave isn’t the only thing affecting this. 

[Typhoon Tip]

The dominating forces are the PV,  vs   the -PNA/La Nina circulation mode

Those two have situated ( in the models) a battle ground from Lakes through New England. 

That's why for the very strong consistency for actually getting an event done - those are largely/physically unmovable compared to the smaller disturbances contained. You know... one school says, you should be grateful and end it there.  But no... now that any snow at all enters the discussion, it's hand throwing unfair?   wow  

But beyond that, the gradients are narrowly defined, so much so that mere 'giga' motions in the runs ... less the 50 mi of tolerance even, may dictate if your town gets 5.5" of snow with a crust, or just 1/2" of snow then IP/ glaze ... or less.  It just is what it is. 

Reiterating.. this still looks to me like RUT-PWM is the snow axis.  That may get adjusted, but I haven't seen any reason/evidence yet...  S of there, it's a gradient to including more IP and ZR to eventually cold rainy teared posters.

[BombsAway1288]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why is the Jersey guy laughing at everyone’s posts about north trends!

Because he’s one of the many posters down there that are obsessed with Boston/SNE weather in the winter. If they’re missing out the next focus is on here, hoping that we get screwed too. It’s very much a jealousy thing. 
I know cause I used to be one. Would never come in here and throw it in your faces though like these guys do. Pretty childish. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

33 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

I'm not even sure what I'm looking at in terms of a run to run difference there on the Nam. How does it jump like that run to run. Skeptical. Especially this close to tuesday

Look at the gradient all models have had . Very sharp and tight . A couple 25 mile shifts north in guidance is about all it takes . I mean if this was really a trend already it would be Rains to lake winni in next 8 more cycles  so I’m hoping maybe it can still move south later today