Very persistent signal for moderate snow and ice impact between "Wed night" and "Thur night" this week

[Hoth]

34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro has little QPF MA/CT border on south. 

I'm cool with that.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Fine by me.

Why 
i thought you wanted snow 

 

[WinterWolf]

Ya let’s get this POS done, and see if we can’t capitalize with something post 2/23? All the best to the folks in CNE with this. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Why 
i thought you wanted snow 

 

Yeah, another euro like move and he’s out of the game too, unless he’s stoked for a bunch of sleet.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Here comes the warmer moves.

People allowed the lack of snowfall this season to cloud their judgment on this event. This was always a likely outcome. No real surprise 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya let’s get this POS done, and see if we can’t capitalize with something post 2/23? All the best to the folks in CNE with this. 

It's amazing how these events have gone to crap everytime the models show something decent in the 7-10 day range .

[MJO812]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

People allowed the lack of snowfall this season to cloud their judgment on this event. This was always a likely outcome. No real surprise 

The trough out west is relentless.  That piece of crap needs to get lost .

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, another euro like move and he’s out of the game too, unless he’s stoked for a bunch of sleet.

Nam was much milder at surface up to MHT. I don’t really trust it for surface temps 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, MJO812 said:

The trough out west is relentless.  That piece of crap needs to get lost .

It’s not getting lost, we have to hope we receive help from the Atlantic and the Arctic. That’s the hope going forward. How many times do the folks in the know need to explain that? Some folks refuse to Pay attention, and keep moaning about the same shit. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Nam was much milder at surface up to MHT

Yeah, we all knew this was coming. I’d take a cold rain over the kitchen sink at this point.

My interest in a bunch of slop is 0

[MJO812]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

It’s not getting lost, we have to hope we receive help from the Atlantic and the Arctic. That’s the hope going forward. How many times do the folks in the know need to explain that? Some folks refuse to Pay attention, and keep moaning about the same shit. 

Because it sucks 

Yes the wave lengths get shorter in March and the PNA isn't a huge factor so maybe there is a chance.

Your area has a better chance than mine. 

All I'm looking for is 1-3 Inches to remind me what snow looks like.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Because it sucks 

Yes the wave lengths get shorter in March and the PNA isn't a huge factor so maybe there is a chance.

Your area has a better chance than mine. 

All I'm looking for is 1-3 Inches to remind me what snow looks like.

Theres a shot you’ll see that. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

0z HRR still gives my area 3" from the Tuesday deal... waiting for the 12z to finish 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

People allowed the lack of snowfall this season to cloud their judgment on this event. This was always a likely outcome. No real surprise 

Nothing was clouded…it was only legit discussion that I saw. I didn’t see anybody saying anything other than let’s see how this plays out. We all knew this was a long shot for 2/23 for most of us in SNE. 

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nothing was clouded…it was only legit discussion that I saw. I didn’t see anybody saying anything other than let’s see how this plays out. We all knew this was a long shot for 2/23 for most of us in SNE. 

Didn’t we all say it would likely move north? TAN was never in this anyways. Neither was anyone really south of the pike unless you like sleet. 

[powderfreak]

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's amazing how these events have gone to crap everytime the models show something decent in the 7-10 day range .

One man’s crap is another’s treasure.

It’s exactly where it was two days ago.

[powderfreak]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Didn’t we all say it would likely move north? TAN was never in this anyways. Neither was anyone really south of the pike unless you like sleet. 

Yeah I don’t see much change in past 48-72 hours to be honest as a collective.  Toggle back two days ago. Seems like we all wanted it to get as far south as possible in that range knowing it would come back up.

[tamarack]

P has a max of 15 for Thursday, which would make for the first "cold" snowfall - every event with 1"+ this season has come with temps mid 20s to near 32, usually closer to the latter.  GYX discussion compared this setup to 2/4/22 and we had 12.4" from that one, also on a Wed-Fri though 90% came on the Thursday.  Still 3 days out . . .

[Damage In Tolland]

I’m pretty certain Tippy said this wasn’t a typical  SWFE yesterday , and that it could easily keep correcting south 

[SnoSki14]

29 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The trough out west is relentless.  That piece of crap needs to get lost .

Next season

[powderfreak]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m pretty certain Tippy said this wasn’t a typical  SWFE yesterday , and that it could easily keep correcting south 

GEFS are further south than they were yesterday.  Dampens out the operational swings.

Yesterday’s 12z 

Today’s 6z

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Modfan2 said:

Tip starting a thread has been the kiss of death this season for SNE.

Which threads would those be ?  - just curious...

because according to my recollection, I have started one thread this year.   And it was a system that broke records and wreaked fatal havoc - the scope and specter of which should have had a thread, regardless of myopic intent with this pastime.  I dunno...maybe one other. But really, no one has really had much needs to start any event-specific threads.

Also... the 06z hardly constitutes the 'the warm move back N' .... the 00z was colder than the 12z ( Euro), and so the 06z ticked essentially that same delta ...the other direction.  It may be more indicative of this nesting into a final result.   But there is still only so much synoptic room for this to go back N, and in fact, there is still room for it to come S more.  

I suspect people are hyper focusing on the isothermic layout ...and so the 06z Euro vs the 00z, for 21z Thur ...this difference somehow constitutes a big warm change?  

 

Not sure where to begin ... Those differences are far more modest than the melody in here sings.  And it was one run.  

 

[Snowcrazed71]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Which threads would those be ?  - just curious...

because according to my recollection, I have started one thread this year.   And it was a system that broke records and wreaked fatal havoc - the scope and specter of which should have had a thread, regardless of myopic intent with this pastime.  

Also... the 06z hardly constitutes the 'the warm move back N' .... the 00z was colder than the 12z ( Euro), and so the 06z ticked essentially that same delta ...the other direction.  It may be more indicative of this nesting into a final result.   But there is still only so much synoptic room for this to go back N, and in fact, there is still room for it to come S more.  

I suspect people are hyper focusing on the isothermic layout ...and so the 06z Euro ...this difference somehow constitutes a big warm change?  

 

Not sure where to begin ... Those differences are far more modest than the melody in here sings.  And it was one run.  

 

You gotta love some people Tippy ... They are frustrated and need to throw blame at whomever they feel at that moment. 

Although some of your wording might need a look up here and there...lol.... I appreciate all the time and effort you put into your posts. 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Which threads would those be ?  - just curious...

because according to my recollection, I have started one thread this year.   And it was a system that broke records and wreaked fatal havoc - the scope and specter of which should have had a thread, regardless of myopic intent with this pastime.  

Also... the 06z hardly constitutes the 'the warm move back N' .... the 00z was colder than the 12z ( Euro), and so the 06z ticked essentially that same delta ...the other direction.  It may be more indicative of this nesting into a final result.   But there is still only so much synoptic room for this to go back N, and in fact, there is still room for it to come S more.  

I suspect people are hyper focusing on the isothermic layout ...and so the 06z Euro ...this difference somehow constitutes a big warm change?  

 

Not sure where to begin ... Those differences are far more modest than the melody in here sings.  And it was one run.  

 

Euro took a bit of a harder trend north in the midlevels, but agreed it’s not a multi cycle thing yet. Could easily go back south at 12z. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

TauntonBlizz just sees CTBlizz’s post and all is lost. 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro took a bit of a harder trend north in the midlevels, but agreed it’s not a multi cycle thing yet. Could easily go back south at 12z. 

okay, .. that may have been a conversation regarding aloft - ... honestly, I outlined the snow potential as being along a RUT-PWM line in the opener...  That may get dinged by mid levels, it may not... but since snow wasn't really the emphasis down our way, I'm really more interested in testing the vision for IP and ICE ... Snow probably heralds this thing in, either way...it's a matter of timing transition.

I admit that I posted following banter, regarding this having S potential still... but at 72 to 90 hours, the models are likely also nearing end point of that. 

[ORH_wxman]

NAM tries to give CT/RI/SE MA an advisory event tomorrow morning 

[CoastalWx]

What the hell is the nam doing tomorrow lol.

[dendrite]

3k really interesting down there too

[mahk_webstah]

up here gyx is 2-4 for tomorrow up here with a short period of heavy rates.