Very persistent signal for moderate snow and ice impact between "Wed night" and "Thur night" this week

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Saw it...  yup.  The 00z oper Euro tried to remove NS off the face of the Earth with this thing - btw.   It backed off quite a bit at 12z though...  The EPS and GEFs is a nice cross -guidance appeal, no doubt.

Ok, now that would be interesting.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Looking forward to two weeks of winter weather in NW MA.

[weathafella]

Another tick colder.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Another tick colder.

She’s trending still. 

[weathafella]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

She’s trending still. 

I may finally get to use the new snowblower.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Canadian a tick warmer 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Canadian a tick warmer 

More than a tick I’d say

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

More than a tick I’d say

Yeah, not going to get it done for pike area. Not what you wanted to see

[dendrite]

Initially I thought the gfs mid level temps looked a hair warmer, but I think it’s just sped up a bit. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, dendrite said:

Initially I thought the gfs mid level temps looked a hair warmer, but I think it’s just sped up a bit. 

Southern trend seems to have halted.

 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Southern trend seems to have halted.

 

Maybe.   I thought this run was slightly colder per gfs based on BOS soundings and cmc looked kind of like a mess.  Let’s see what euro and uncle say and tomorrows guidance as well.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Maybe.   I thought this run was slightly colder per gfs based on BOS soundings and cmc looked kind of like a mess.  Let’s see what euro and uncle say and tomorrows guidance as well.

CMC is always a mess…that model blows..period! 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

CMC is always a mess…that model blows..period! 

Maybe, but you know if it continued the cold trends it would be mentioned 

[dendrite]

Yeah I didn’t see the colder look in the gfs 850-500 max column temps, but it looked like mostly noise at worst when factoring in the system moving in a hair faster.

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Southern trend seems to have halted.

 

Fine by me.

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie was quite a bit colder than 12z. Actually has warning snows down into N CT. Seems like some mixed results at 00z. Crazy Uncle have been on the bottle though too….tries to dump like 4-5” in the clipper prior to the 2/23 storm too in the pike region. 
 

My gut still says mostly IP here though. I’d want to see most models going 00 Ukie tomorrow before pulling the trigger in plowable snowfall. 

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie was quite a bit colder than 12z. Actually has warning snows down into N CT. Seems like some mixed results at 00z. Crazy Uncle have been on the bottle though too….tries to dump like 4-5” in the clipper prior to the 2/23 storm too in the pike region. 
 

My gut still says mostly IP here though. I’d want to see most models going 00 Ukie tomorrow before pulling the trigger in plowable snowfall. 

It's a long weekend.  Uncle finally opened that high end Scotch he got for Christmas.

[greenmtnwx]

NAM looks like crap for Tuesday and the late week storm. Weak sauce tomorrow and then wagons north Thursday. 

[TalcottWx]

A ton of positive and Negative posts last two pages, good luck figuring out what's going on

[Rtd208]

1 minute ago, TalcottWx said:

A ton of positive and Negative posts last two pages, good luck figuring out what's going on

Says every forecast model. 

[SouthCoastMA]

4 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

A ton of positive and Negative posts last two pages, good luck figuring out what's going on

Most models ticked warmer last two cycles. 0z and 6z

[CoastalWx]

Here comes the warmer moves.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Most models ticked warmer last two cycles. 0z and 6z

Euro just came in significantly warmer now at 06z. This trend was expected though…we kept saying it was coming.  It was just a matter of how far south we could tick it first. Not too optimistic here for much snow. I think a lot of IP. 
 

Though if we’re not careful on the north ticks, it could still end up at mostly cold rain here too. But I do think that PV confluence will put a cap on things. 

[Modfan2]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Here comes the warmer moves.

Tip starting a thread has been the kiss of death this season for SNE.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Tip starting a thread has been the kiss of death this season for SNE.

To be fair, Jesus Christ himself could start a thread this season and it wouldn’t work out. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Icestorm across the guidance. 
Saturday night event has trended into nothing other than snow showers 

 

[CoastalWx]

I was hoping the PV would at least “help” with significant moves north, but 6z euro was a sizable move. North ticks inevitable though with these, but hopefully a limit for those near the MA/NH border on north. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Icestorm across the guidance. 
Saturday night event has trended into nothing other than snow showers 

 

Might be questionable even for you. 

[CoastalWx]

Euro has little QPF MA/CT border on south. 

[Rtd208]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

To be fair, Jesus Christ himself could start a thread this season and it wouldn’t work out.