Very persistent signal for moderate snow and ice impact between "Wed night" and "Thur night" this week

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's not a typical SWFE ....

Like I just said to Will... the frontal structures and the forcing aren't gaining latitude. 

Yea, that is why I may need to adjust...I really missed that in my first eval. May need to reconsider on Tuesday. What you said about cold exertion offsetting advection really clarified what you mean...my reluctance is that is normally more applicable to the low levels. Maybe across the full profile here...we'll see.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It really wasn't knock. When I am on the run and looking for an honest assessment, you are one of the posters I look to read for a "no shit" eval.

But its not only in shit winters....you even doing in the lead up to impending blizzards. You remind me of messenger in that you are always looking for how the other shoe may drop via subtle trends.

When it comes to the actual day Of the storm I will be more vocal then others about anything I don’t like . I really 100% don’t consciously  look for things that won’t But at that lead time it’s kinda like well.. what convo has value ..and if there is like some Merrimack valley dryer zone on modeling I will certainly speak up about it so it’s probably more memorable . I mean I also will give very specific locations for certain micro climate type stuff lol but that was more when I lived in mass and was often on the edge of rain snow lines 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

When you are optimistic, it must be painfully obvious....your baseline is neurotically searching for means of failure lol

His subconscious tends to search for red flags but that’s not a bad thing. He’s like Wizzy in a way. 

[mreaves]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

His subconscious tends to search for red flags but that’s not a bad thing. He’s like Wizzy in a way. 

Except when Wiz is looking for severe, every little rumble producer has a chance to spawn an EF3. Until an an hour or two into the day of the event and the reality of living in the land of weak severe slaps him upside the head. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Except when Wiz is looking for severe, every little rumble producer has a chance to spawn an EF3. Until an an hour or two into the day of the event and the reality of living in the land of weak severe slaps him upside the head. 

I meant Wizzy in winter because you’re right…with severe lol, he has thunder goggles on. 

[CoastalWx]

The height tendencies at 500 have been to dampen out and lower heights across New England. Multiple runs of this too. That will help negate (doesn’t mean we can’t tick it north final 48hrs) the big push north we sometimes see with these things. It also means it probably won’t be a juicy system.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The height tendencies at 500 have been to dampen out and lower heights across New England. Multiple runs of this too. That will help negate (doesn’t mean we can’t tick it north final 48hrs) the big push north we sometimes see with these things. It also means it probably won’t be a juicy system.

John was mentioning (I think sat am)  he anticipated S trends and lower QPF 

[ORH_wxman]

51 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's not a typical SWFE ....

Like I just said to Will... the frontal structures and the forcing aren't gaining latitude.  Think of it like this  ... a warm front extends from southern Ontario to Boston, and the MCS travels along and to the right of the boundary ..pulling it back S... not sending it N

Yeah the more it trends, it’s more of a stationary overrunning look that slowly lifts northeast. But not the classic quick 4-7 hour thump of a typical SWFE. This is far longer duration. 

[CoastalWx]

Let’s get some 737s into Boston Harbor. 

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The height tendencies at 500 have been to dampen out and lower heights across New England. Multiple runs of this too. That will help negate (doesn’t mean we can’t tick it north final 48hrs) the big push north we sometimes see with these things. It also means it probably won’t be a juicy system.

There will probably be a relatively narrow band (say 50 miles wide?) that gets 1”+ of QPF but I can’t see lots of half inch type totals on either side of it…but this will prob be longer duration  with a lot of hazards to watch in the areas where it goes to IP/ZR. As we already know, freezing drizzle/mist for 6 hours is bad enough even if it totaling 0.2” of QPF. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There will probably be a relatively narrow band (say 50 miles wide?) that gets 1”+ of QPF but I can’t see lots of half inch type totals on either side of it…but this will prob be longer duration  with a lot of hazards to watch in the areas where it goes to IP/ZR. As we already know, freezing drizzle/mist for 6 hours is bad enough even if it totaling 0.2” of QPF. 

Can some folks grab .50+ accretion potentially?

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There will probably be a relatively narrow band (say 50 miles wide?) that gets 1”+ of QPF but I can’t see lots of half inch type totals on either side of it…but this will prob be longer duration  with a lot of hazards to watch in the areas where it goes to IP/ZR. As we already know, freezing drizzle/mist for 6 hours is bad enough even if it totaling 0.2” of QPF. 

Looks like the upper level wave is opening up too as it moves through the Ohio Valley… some of the earlier runs had it more consolidated and closer to closed off.  That probably keeps it flatter rather than amplifying.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Looks like the upper level wave is opening up too as it moves through the Ohio Valley… some of the earlier runs had it more consolidated and closer to closed off.  That probably keeps it flatter rather than amplifying.

Yep. And Will is right, a narrow area will do well. I just meant  the typical thump we see with these may not be as widespread. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

How far off are mid levels from staying predominantly snow for route 2 / S NH Are

[ROOSTA]

Out of the hospital after 5 day stay. Clots everywhere, heavy duty blood thinners. Enjoy each-day! today could be the last.

Winter appears to be finally coming. Enjoy whatever may transpire. FINALLY!

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep. And Will is right, a narrow area will do well. I just meant  the typical thump we see with these may not be as widespread. 

Yeah I could certainly see it go from heavy thump to long duration light/moderate snow, especially the trailing energy up north.  Could see like 8” over 24 hours up here instead of 6-10” thump.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Out of the hospital after 5 day stay. Clots everywhere, heavy duty blood thinners. Enjoy each-day! today could be the last.

Winter appears to be finally coming. Enjoy whatever may transpire. FINALLY!

jesus ... what'dya reach for the powdered concrete instead of the corn starch.  How does one just manifest clots - seriously..  sounds scary

[weathafella]

13 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Out of the hospital after 5 day stay. Clots everywhere, heavy duty blood thinners. Enjoy each-day! today could be the last.

Winter appears to be finally coming. Enjoy whatever may transpire. FINALLY!

Yikes!  Get well Don!

[Typhoon Tip]

that's why I'm keeping this a moderate affair ... for now.  I mean, there's not lot of wiggle room to make this more than what we are seeing... It's a pulse of pretty significant wind mechanics zipping through the interface between the PV and the S warm wall... The polar boundary is just what Will said, more like a stationary front with flop over being pulled up the elevated frontal slope by restoring mechanics on the equatorial side of the exit/lateral/entrace jet max passing by just N. 

Gfs still carrying the 28th event ( btw...) not to stray on this thread...  That's a potent consistency in the GFS, now also inside of D10 ... pinch us, we're almost spoiled here!  

no but the GEFs have been trending to an actually vision, and not just buckshot from Michigan to Bermuda...

[HoarfrostHubb]

53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s get some 737s into Boston Harbor. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

58 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

that's why I'm keeping this a moderate affair ... for now.  I mean, there's not lot of wiggle room to make this more than what we are seeing... It's a pulse of pretty significant wind mechanics zipping through the interface between the PV and the S warm wall... The polar boundary is just what Will said, more like a stationary front with flop over being pulled up the elevated frontal slope by restoring mechanics on the equatorial side of the exit/lateral/entrace jet max passing by just N. 

Gfs still carrying the 28th event ( btw...) not to stray on this thread...  That's a potent consistency in the GFS, now also inside of D10 ... pinch us, we're almost spoiled here!  

no but the GEFs have been trending to an actually vision, and not just buckshot from Michigan to Bermuda...

Check out the EPS...I posted in the other thread.

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Check out the EPS...I posted in the other thread.

Saw it...  yup.  The 00z oper Euro tried to remove NS off the face of the Earth with this thing - btw.   It backed off quite a bit at 12z though...  The EPS and GEFs is a nice cross -guidance appeal, no doubt.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Saw it...  yup.  The 00z oper Euro tried to remove NS off the face of the Earth with this thing - btw.   It backed off quite a bit at 12z though...  The EPS and GEFs is a nice cross -guidance appeal, no doubt.

Yea, EPS actually was more ominous at 12z.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The guy asking about 1/2" of ice in a modest overrunning ordeal dishing out buns...its raining pots and kettles.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The guy asking about 1/2" of ice in a modest overrunning ordeal dishing out buns...its raining pots and kettles.

18z Euro looks very good for your hood.

[Damage In Tolland]

 

Digging in deeper to 18z GFS.. it gives icestorm warnings for most of CT almost to the coast 

[Supernovice]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The guy asking about 1/2" of ice in a modest overrunning ordeal dishing out buns...its raining pots and kettles.

The fact that he thinks it takes 6 days for clouds to move from Ohio to SNE really does go a long way in explaining his abysmal weather understanding and forecasting.

[Torch Tiger]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t recall saying that , but it may be beer if I did . I still truly believe the gradient remains to our north . Would love nothing more than to be totally wrong on that. Time tells 

it will be north

[Damage In Tolland]

Ray laughing along with a teen kid that is anti military. Unbelievable 

[weathafella]

Powderfreak is a teenager?