Very persistent signal for moderate snow and ice impact between "Wed night" and "Thur night" this week

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Welcome to our April

heh... exactly what I was said in my mind when I read that, 'welcome to our spring'

[Typhoon Tip]

It occurs to me...this whole ordeal really has moved up by almost a complete 24 hours...

I started an obs/nowcast thread, but the title may be miss-leading: it's still focused on the same event, fyi

[Ginx snewx]

Obvious this morning the Euro has the right idea with holding on to the low level cold longer. Mesos caving to global ideas.  Thumpy thump. Congrats Dendy with over a foot and a half OTG

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

We’re gonna waste the ok mid levels for awhile unfortunately.

Yeah a lot of these 12z runs so far are pretty weak sauce with the precip rates this evening....I'm envisioning a lot of 1 mile vis light snow that accumulates slowly on the grass with maybe a heavier burst in the final hour before it flips. I was hoping for 3-4" but I haven't really strayed from my personal thoughts of an inch or so.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Obvious this morning the Euro has the right idea with holding on to the low level cold longer. Mesos caving to global ideas.  Thumpy thump. Congrats Dendy with over a foot and a half OTG

Euro is not that cold outside the tuck. It's not much different than the mesos. The mesos got colder aloft. 

[CoastalWx]

GFS about 4-6 up to Mark to Dendy. 3-4 near MHT.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is not that cold outside the tuck. It's not much different than the mesos. The mesos got colder aloft. 

I don't understand all the talk about the tuck. That's after all precip has ended. Don't know how impactful it is at all.

[CT Rain]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I don't understand all the talk about the tuck. That's after all precip has ended. Don't know how impactful it is at all.

Looks like a prolonged period of freezing drizzle around here. 

[Ginx snewx]

Kuchie in good use in this situation.  Beautiful thumping for ski areas on the gfs. Anyone north of the GFS sleet line gets the goods

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Looks like a prolonged period of freezing drizzle around here. 

Ah that would suck.

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I don't understand all the talk about the tuck. That's after all precip has ended. Don't know how impactful it is at all.

Icy roads

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I don't understand all the talk about the tuck. That's after all precip has ended. Don't know how impactful it is at all.

Because it's going to go from like 33-34 and slush to 22 and freeze everything up with some snizzle. Wherever that sets up. 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS about 4-6 up to Mark to Dendy. 3-4 near MHT.

Did have a nice 3-4 hour burst here....that would be nice to grab a few. I'm skepitcal though until there's more evidence we get some good rates.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Did have a nice 3-4 hour burst here....that would be nice to grab a few. I'm skepitcal though until there's more evidence we get some good rates.

I still don't expect much here while we are 33-34F. Once again a lousy antecedent airmass. 

[Ginx snewx]

The upper low passing adds some freezing stuff and snow for the north. Juicy Lucy up there

 

[dryslot]

12z GFS looked like some decent rates for 3 hrs or so in the 1-2"/hr window here, Also think we may be better then 10:1 ratios too.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I still don't expect much here while we are 33-34F. Once again a lousy antecedent airmass. 

Almost every single snow "Event" I've had has been at these temps. It's amazing....even when we have like -5C 925 temps, we cannot buy a good sfc PPT prior to the storm....we get one in the middle of this storm, but that doesn't do us any good on the front end, lol.

 

Only real exception was the 12/11 clipper-esque system where we had temps in the mid/upper 20s. We did drop to like 31F in the middle of the CCB on the 1/23 "happy ending" storm, but obviously a significant part of that one too was at 33-34.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Almost every single snow "Event" I've had has been at these temps. It's amazing....even when we have like -5C 925 temps, we cannot buy a good sfc PPT prior to the storm....we get one in the middle of this storm, but that doesn't do us any good on the front end, lol.

 

Only real exception was the 12/11 clipper-esque system where we had temps in the mid/upper 20s. We did drop to like 31F in the middle of the CCB on the 1/23 "happy ending" storm, but obviously a significant part of that one too was at 33-34.

Raindance nailed this season....explicitly stated in his outlook that lots of storms in the east would lack cold air. Most prickly guy you will ever come across on here, but knows his stuff.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Almost every single snow "Event" I've had has been at these temps. It's amazing....even when we have like -5C 925 temps, we cannot buy a good sfc PPT prior to the storm....we get one in the middle of this storm, but that doesn't do us any good on the front end, lol.

 

Only real exception was the 12/11 clipper-esque system where we had temps in the mid/upper 20s. We did drop to like 31F in the middle of the CCB on the 1/23 "happy ending" storm, but obviously a significant part of that one too was at 33-34.

Some of my friends in SNH love to rub it in  @NHDrySlot with NE winds saying it won't snow here and needing N winds. Up until this year..most of the snows here come on NE winds lol. A decent airmass is fine...ala 12/16/07 with screaming east winds and temps of 31F. But yeah this year...can't buy a good antecedent airmass. 

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some of my friends in SNH love to rub it with@NHDrySlot 

TMI

[HoarfrostHubb]

This will be unpleasant to clean up.   Timing sucks.  

[CoastalWx]

I haven't watched today, but last night nobody really mentioned anything about temps falling. I can only hope everyone asks "what happened" as cars slide off 128. 

[Typhoon Tip]

45 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Looks like a prolonged period of freezing drizzle around here. 

GGEM has the more prolific just looking at that QPF products. 

[8611Blizz]

Most outlets in Boston are 1-3 or coating to 1 followed by complete mess tomorrow morning.  Changing back and forth all morning into afternoon. 

Also expect tomorrow night to be worse. 

 

[subdude]

27 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

This will be unpleasant to clean up.   Timing sucks.  

shitstorm 2023

[512high]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I haven't watched today, but last night nobody really mentioned anything about temps falling. I can only hope everyone asks "what happened" as cars slide off 128. 

Scott, was going to say the same thing! Local mets, not really telling the public enough, nightmare on the roads ahead

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, 512high said:

Scott, was going to say the same thing! Local mets, not really telling the public enough, nightmare on the roads ahead

I think for you guys you’ll be below freezing anyways, so not sure how much of a deal it would be there. But down here potentially could be a high impact.

[TalcottWx]

I am not good at my own area yet tbh. Looks like it could be one of those deals where I don't ice very much in Simsbury. Way more skeptical on icing for a place like work in Rocky Hill.

[weathafella]

Nothing says winter like overcast and 40 as precipitation moves towards us….

[wxeyeNH]

Some crazy snow totals coming in for up here if all the GFS storms pan out.

As far as this one the sleet line almost tickles me but doesn't really get in here per models.  Looks like a good dump from Dendy (ish) to and north.