Very persistent signal for moderate snow and ice impact between "Wed night" and "Thur night" this week

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Yea wasn't talking snow here. Colder at the surface for extended frozen. 

Eh. I think that tuck is more important because outside of that it’s a lot of 33-34F rain and pellets. This is more for south of pike. Ironically mesos more aggressive with tuck.

[CoastalWx]

I’ll go around 8” for marky mark. 

[dryslot]

Warnings are up this morning, This map only goes into thursday night so there is some friday stuff left to be had.

[TalcottWx]

22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Depicts frozen line further south. Look at PA especially as that is closest to go time. Based on that wagons south for Nam

It depicts everything further south. Just look in Ray's hood in Methuen and Northern MA. Omega must have skipped the morning coffee. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

I would pay $1 for any vendor that could produce a decent sleet map

 

 

[mahk_webstah]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You will probably be 95% snow . 8 to 12 

Thank you for your analysis…I hope so, but GYX seems leaning less than 6 on snow and a definite change to sleet.  Heavier rates earlier would make the difference to get 6+ I’d think.

[mahk_webstah]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ll go around 8” for marky mark. 

I won’t take the bait

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Thank you for your analysis…I hope so, but GYX seems leaning less than 6 on snow and a definite change to sleet.  Heavier rates earlier would make the difference to get 6+ I’d think.

I could see less too. These setups are a pita.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

I won’t take the bait

6-8?

[mahk_webstah]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ll go around 8” for marky mark. 

GYX says 5-6 but I like how you think

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

6-8?

What are we talking about here

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

What are we talking about here

I’m offended.

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m offended.

Well then.  I appreciate your optimism.

[CoastalWx]

Actually looking at some soundings, maybe lower end better. DGZ May dry out quick.  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

BOX forecast has around 1” for my area, same for Ray’s hood.  They have mostly rain and freezing rain.  
Riding the mesos I guess.  

[mahk_webstah]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Actually looking at some soundings, maybe lower end better. DGZ May dry out quick.  

We need a vicious thump tonight, then in to Tuesday 

[dendrite]

I like the GYX map. I think we ping after 3-5”. 

[CoastalWx]

Sorry Mark.  

[Typhoon Tip]

Not seeing a big load of QPF.  

In general we may correct the llvs colder … but for a lighter event ?

[CoastalWx]

The gfs has a decent thump with the euro and that would be 6-8 for mark to dendrite. Also it gets cold and a decent wind profile over that done would probably allow for hours of crud building up. Lots of easterly flow aloft over that dome.

But the nam which I fear may be more right than wrong, would fly pellets north to the whites. If that happens it’s advisory snow. So after looking finally, I’d be conservative I think. 

[512high]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The gfs has a decent thump with the euro and that would be 6-8 for mark to dendrite. Also it gets cold and a decent wind profile over that done would probably allow for hours of crud building up. Lots of easterly flow aloft over that dome.

But the nam which I fear may be more right than wrong, would fly pellets north to the whites. If that happens it’s advisory snow. So after looking finally, I’d be conservative I think. 

Scott, what do we look like between 3pm-6pm Thursday? I keeping hearing possible "lull" or a flash freeze at that time frame? What a piece of shit storm this looks like.

[ORH_wxman]

12z HRRR looks a little more thumpy here this evening. Has 4-5” on the 10 to 1 maps but even half of that would be nice. Im assuming the first couple tenths are basically going to be wasted on a slushy coating because the sfc is pretty warm to start. 

[Ginx snewx]

31 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

We need a vicious thump tonight, then in to Tuesday 

But is 6 to 8 enough for a vicious thump? Lol. Anyways HREF freezing rain. ( eweather)

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z HRRR looks a little more thumpy here this evening. Has 4-5” on the 10 to 1 maps but even half of that would be nice. Im assuming the first couple tenths are basically going to be wasted on a slushy coating because the sfc is pretty warm to start. 

 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah I’ll sell 10:1 here. Still think c-1” here. Lots of qpf wasted to cool boundary layer. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, 512high said:

Scott, what do we look like between 3pm-6pm Thursday? I keeping hearing possible "lull" or a flash freeze at that time frame? What a piece of shit storm this looks like.

They’ll be a lull, but temps will drop in the aftn. There might be some very fine flakes or snizzle, but it will be slippery for sure. 

[mreaves]

This is BTV's latest

[scoob40]

48 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

BOX forecast has around 1” for my area, same for Ray’s hood.  They have mostly rain and freezing rain.  
Riding the mesos I guess.  

They could be right but the 1" total i think will be here.

[dendrite]

11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 

That’s what we need up here for the higher range. Fight back those warming midlevels for a couple of hours and sneak another couple of inches in. 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That’s what we need up here for the higher range. Fight back those warming midlevels for a couple of hours and sneak another couple of inches in. 

Congrats Dendrite.  How much OTG right now?