Very persistent signal for moderate snow and ice impact between "Wed night" and "Thur night" this week

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Always hate sitting on fences with not a lot of wiggle room for wintry outcomes, Your model watching right up until go time in many of these.

You’re in good shape no?

[CT Rain]

Euro is definitely colder. Really odd battle here shaping up lol.

 

I do feel like it's different from the typical SWFE look where the globals are slow with the mid level warm layer compared to the mesos. This is just a very different synoptic-scale track of the mid and upper level features. 

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You’re in good shape no?

Yes, I'm fine here, I've been in the middle of guidance for days with very little if any change, That was more for you guys down there, But i don't like being in that position that some of you are finding yourself in of needing 10-20 miles either way to catch the goods, Its nerve wracking, I'd rather be out early then fence sit, But i would still check in.........lol.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Going with 2-3” of snow before the flip to mixed bag the rain.  

[ORH_wxman]

21 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Euro is definitely colder. Really odd battle here shaping up lol.

 

I do feel like it's different from the typical SWFE look where the globals are slow with the mid level warm layer compared to the mesos. This is just a very different synoptic-scale track of the mid and upper level features. 

It gets really cold after the first pulse of precip too. It has upper teens in ORH county Thursday and sub-freezing down into CT Thursday evening….gonna have to watch for that 2nd round of precip. Even if it’s only a few tenths, if it’s falling as ZR in the 20s, that’ll be nasty. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

22 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yes, I'm fine here, I've been in the middle of guidance for days with very little if any change, That was more for you guys down there, But i don't like being in that position that some of you are finding yourself in of needing 10-20 miles either way to catch the goods, Its nerve wracking, I'd rather be out early then fence sit, But i would still check in.........lol.

Try it for the entire winter haha

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I don’t see more than 1-2” at NH/ border , not a big difference than what you have but just saying what I think 

another 32-33 F system , at least some of them have been snow compared to pike south folks 

Well, the southern end is closer to 2-3".

Its a range.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, the southern end is closer to 2-3".

Its a range.

You will probably be right , I’m just guessing really 

[CoastalWx]

25 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Euro is definitely colder. Really odd battle here shaping up lol.

 

I do feel like it's different from the typical SWFE look where the globals are slow with the mid level warm layer compared to the mesos. This is just a very different synoptic-scale track of the mid and upper level features. 

It’s not your typical strong s/w ripping over or just west of us.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

You will probably be right , I’m just guessing really 

I mean, we aren't disagreeing...its not a big snowmaker lol

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Try it for the entire winter haha

All set.........

[dryslot]

These usually have an uptick inside the last 24 hrs on qpf, Also you can start them 3 hrs sooner then modeled give or take so we shall see.

[Typhoon Tip]

45 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Euro is definitely colder. Really odd battle here shaping up lol.

 

I do feel like it's different from the typical SWFE look where the globals are slow with the mid level warm layer compared to the mesos. This is just a very different synoptic-scale track of the mid and upper level features. 

Agreed... 

How that translates to the ptype gradient ..heh.   But I feel ( still) that the correction vector for all this mess is still S oriented.  "weather" that ultimately happens, it's more like leaning.   The problem I'm also having is long years of experience related to seeing 1030 polar high with teens over single digit T/DP hanging over our latitudes by drain distance, with low pressure - however weak almost doesn't matter - rippling by to the S of us. Yet we stagnate at 33 F ... ? 

I don't know.  The GGEM has a coherent tuck evidenced by the 2-meter, Thurs afternoon - the model may suck by street cred but this seems like a dead ringer for that. 

Maybe what you said, is just unique enough for a cold bust.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Agreed... 

How that translates to the ptype gradient ..heh.   But I feel ( still) that the correct for all this mess is still S oriented.  "weather" that ultimately happens, it's more like leaning.   The problem I'm also having is long years of experience related to seeing 1030 polar high with teens over single digit T/DP hanging over our latitudes by drain distance, with low pressure - however weak almost doesn't matter - rippling by to the S of us. Yet we stagnate at 33 F ... ? 

I don't know.  The GGEM has a vicious tuck Thurs afternoon - the model may suck by street cred but this seems like a dead ringer for that. 

Maybe what you said, is just unique enough for a cold bust.

18z Euro has an almost continuous cold drain once the event starts. ORH is 30F moderate snow to 27F pellets to 23F freezing drizzle/mist in a 12-18 hour period. 

[Typhoon Tip]

The Euro may have tuck too, but it's so cold really N of the Pike that it may be sort of lost/absorbed in it

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z Euro has an almost continuous cold drain once the event starts. ORH is 30F moderate snow to 27F pellets to 23F freezing drizzle/mist in a 12-18 hour period. 

yeah, ( lol ) I just posted that exact thing..

[Typhoon Tip]

What's going on with NWS ? 

I don't wanna be flippant or impugn but ...there's been like 7 days of antecedent consistency leading this thing.  I think it's safe to pull a trigger on Headline graphics.   The other office did, what's the hold up? 

I needed those for critical update.  Damn it

[CT Rain]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

What's going on with NWS ? 

I don't wanna be flippant or impugn but ...there's been like 7 day of antecedent consistency to pull a trigger on Headline graphics.   The other office did, what's the hold up? 

I needed those for critical update.  Damn it

I was surprised to see no advisories this afternoon. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Maybe NWS Boston is a bunch of defeated weenies at this point waiting for the north trend 

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Always hate sitting on fences with not a lot of wiggle room for wintry outcomes, You're model watching right up until go time in many of these.

GYX really bought into the midlevel warming.  After starting the day with 5-10 I ended it with maybe 3-5.  The snow map really bumped north.  It will come down to the intensity of the first wave before we probably go to light sleet and frz drizzle and then who knows what for wave 2.  My guess for me is 7"

[Whineminster]

Gonna be a nice little critter for many.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

GYX really bought into the midlevel warming.  After starting the day with 5-10 I ended it with maybe 3-5.  The snow map really bumped north.  It will come down to the intensity of the first wave before we probably go to light sleet and frz drizzle and then who knows what for wave 2.  My guess for me is 7"

I've been 4-8" here, If the mids keep trending colder, Then its closer to 8" as we will see less in the way of any sleet until the flip to frdrz at the end.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Maybe NWS Boston is a bunch of defeated weenies at this point waiting for the north trend 

Seriously....but you think they would resist allowing emotions to preclude a thorough analysis the likes of which we have seen from John and Will.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Seriously....but you think they would resist allowing emotions to preclude a thorough analysis the likes of which we have seen from John and Will.

They are riding the pattern persistence train. 

[CoastalWx]

41 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Agreed... 

How that translates to the ptype gradient ..heh.   But I feel ( still) that the correction vector for all this mess is still S oriented.  "weather" that ultimately happens, it's more like leaning.   The problem I'm also having is long years of experience related to seeing 1030 polar high with teens over single digit T/DP hanging over our latitudes by drain distance, with low pressure - however weak almost doesn't matter - rippling by to the S of us. Yet we stagnate at 33 F ... ? 

I don't know.  The GGEM has a coherent tuck evidenced by the 2-meter, Thurs afternoon - the model may suck by street cred but this seems like a dead ringer for that. 

Maybe what you said, is just unique enough for a cold bust.

Those tucks usually are modeled too far to the N and W. In most seasons, those usually end up further south and east due to ageostrophic processes. 
 

That will accelerate a bit on Thursday  as 925 winds back to more NE. That allows the low levels to leak cold toward the SE with less resistance. 
 

What I have noticed is that models are really all over where and how far SE it gets. Later Thursday night we start to WAA and winds down to 925 veer to the south. I also noticed some models vary with the primary strength and position. That’s going to eff around with the tuck placement. You’re basically trying to forecast where the lower 2K of cold will go. Not an easy thing to do and guidance will struggle. 

[CT Rain]

HRRR looks a bit colder to me compared to 18z. Waiting for the NAM to come in as a furnace again lol. 

[kdxken]

17 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

They are riding the pattern persistence train. 

Watching the geese.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

HRRR looks a bit colder to me compared to 18z. Waiting for the NAM to come in as a furnace again lol. 

Yeah it is. Still awful lol.

[CoastalWx]

Hrrr with a violent tuck.

[Baroclinic Zone]