Very persistent signal for moderate snow and ice impact between "Wed night" and "Thur night" this week

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Models have 1”+ qpf south of 90. Much of that will be zr

What model would that be ...GFBEER?

[DJln491]

GFS not running?  at least it can't disappoint us then.

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2nd batch is where the cold tuck could be dangerous. 
 

Still not seeing much trend so far at 12z. NAM still an absolute furnace and we don’t even get much precip from round 1. Dryslotted. 

RGEM cooled a tick (lot of sleet after brief snow)

ICON cooled even more, has a pretty decent thump on the pike kind of like the euro. 

 

Im guessing NAM is too amped but the colder models are too flat if someone held a gun to my head. 

2nd batch is what to watch for sure. I just don't see much snow near the pike. Will be happy to be wrong, but just my gut.

[NW_of_GYX]

goal posts are there. I like where I am in the middle of them. 6-8 would be great since it hasn't snowed here in almost a month. 

[NW_of_GYX]

Fom GYX AFD: 

The NAM is particularly bullish but we can`t discount it since it has done
well with temperature profiles in these southwest flow aloft
overunning scenarios.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No they don't. 

The euro does 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The euro does 

Not anymore. Sell that.

[CoastalWx]

Euro is like 0.4" for Kevin. LOL.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not anymore. Sell that.

00z was. Let’s see about 12z. Who cares about off hour run

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is like 0.4" for Kevin. LOL.

Euro had more QPF by pike bc it was furthest south with the boundary , would think it makes a compromise next 36 hours but who knows 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Gfs running 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

00z was. Let’s see about 12z. Who cares about off hour run

The forcing is all north. You'll be lucky for half inch QPF.

[CoastalWx]

GFS giving pike a few inches.

[ORH_wxman]

GFS decided to cool slightly. Decent thump for MA. At some point either the NAM or the globals are going to make some noticeable moves. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Gfs seems to start earlier and moved toward euro 

[tunafish]

How far north are those torched mid-levels on the NAM?  Asking for a backyard near me.

[Whineminster]

go with the nam, ignore everything else.  we torch. 

[CoastalWx]

It wouldn't shock me is 925ish cooled a bit, but it's tough to buy snowier solutions with these set ups. Still have some time to go. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, tunafish said:

How far north are those torched mid-levels on the NAM?  Asking for a backyard near me.

They taint your area. NAM might be too far north synoptically..which is the thing to watch. We know it can handle the elevated warm layers well, but it only matters if it is correct synoptically. If it is simply just too far north with the storm, then it will be wrong. 
 

I think Euro/GFS are likely too cold aloft here but the magnitude will matter a lot…esp for those more up near NH border. 

[NW_of_GYX]

2 minutes ago, tunafish said:

How far north are those torched mid-levels on the NAM?  Asking for a backyard near me.

farther north than you are

[CoastalWx]

GFS soundings don't really show that classic warm bulge aloft compared to the NAM. Not sure that makes sense at all. The NAM does show this, ..but maybe the whole solution is too far north. So take the soundings, but think about a possible correction south. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS soundings don't really show that classic warm bulge aloft compared to the NAM. Not sure that makes sense at all. The NAM does show this, ..but maybe the whole solution is too far north. So take the soundings, but think about a possible correction south. 

Yeah there is a complete disconnect synoptically right now with NAM and others. It’s basically dryslotting us before any real robust precip. That’s separate than a simple sounding disagreement. 

[TalcottWx]

51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2nd batch is where the cold tuck could be dangerous. 
 

Still not seeing much trend so far at 12z. NAM still an absolute furnace and we don’t even get much precip from round 1. Dryslotted. 

RGEM cooled a tick (lot of sleet after brief snow)

ICON cooled even more, has a pretty decent thump on the pike kind of like the euro. 

 

Im guessing NAM is too amped but the colder models are too flat if someone held a gun to my head. 

NAM was awful outlier in this Tuesday event, I expect a cold trend into Thursday. But for most I'm skeptical about how significant the shift would actually be. 

[subdude]

So how's everyone's week going? 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Canadian cooled a bit. Again, probably doesn’t matter for most, but it did cool some.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah there is a complete disconnect synoptically right now with NAM and others. It’s basically dryslotting us before any real robust precip. That’s separate than a simple sounding disagreement. 

Yeah I was comparing similar areas in the snow shield to get a thermal sense because taking the sounding at the same location is night and day between NAM and GFS, 

[Sn0waddict]

GFS is 35F here Thursday afternoon while 3kNAM is 65F with sun . It’s ain’t going to snow so we might as well torch. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS decided to cool slightly. Decent thump for MA. At some point either the NAM or the globals are going to make some noticeable moves. 

well they'd better hurry ... Running out of time before they have to just be flat out considered busts...

I don't accept in recent tech advancing in these tools ... a day's lead than 'oh, by the way'?

UN acceptable.   That is a failure

That said... were/if folks were 'hoping' cold corrections would continue right on into a snowier solution for us, down here, ...yeah, not impossible. But it was never really on the better side of the odds with this mess.  It's still really unchanged to be blunt.  Looks like RUT -PWM ~ latitude for snow to me, with IP --> ZR --> cold rain however far it takes to ruin yet another opportunity in this winter of misfits going S. 

[Lava Rock]

41 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

farther north than you are

i have taint in my point/click

[CT Rain]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I was comparing similar areas in the snow shield to get a thermal sense because taking the sounding at the same location is night and day between NAM and GFS, 

Almost seems like it's more of a synoptic issue with the track of the mid level lows than a typical meso vs global kind of battle in a SWFE.