Very persistent signal for moderate snow and ice impact between "Wed night" and "Thur night" this week

[Cold Miser]

41F, and some sparsely placed large, wet-azz-flakes falling here in Manchester.

Looking forward to more WAP!  WAP!  WAP! (wet-a.ss-precipitation) tomorrow.  

[wxeyeNH]

What do you think Brian for our area?  I post my thoughts from time to time in our 7000 member Newfound Lake  facebook group which if others don't know is just north of you.  Any tweets you would suggest before I post this?

Newfound Area Weather Outlook as of Wednesday 2/22

Very cold and Stormy Weather Pattern Upcoming

Mother Nature looks like she is going to make up for lost time! The first in what might be a series of storms over the next couple of weeks will arrive mid or late evening. Snow will be heavy at times tonight with temperatures falling into the upper teens by daybreak. Light winds and dry powdery snow that will not adhere to trees or powerlines.

Thursday morning the snow will let up in intensity but may continue lightly for much of the day. There will be a warm layer of air up at cloud level so the snow may mix or even change to some ice pellets (sleet) late at night or during tomorrow, especially in areas south of the lake. Temperatures will stay in then teens all day tomorrow. Snowfall totals depend on if any ice pellets get mixed in.. Highest totals will be north. Elevation will not make a difference in this case. 7-12" north to south would be my call.

Thursday Night. Another weak weather system passes through. Although is will stay cold at the low levels of the atmosphere that warm layer above may make it warm enough at cloud level so the precipatation could fall as either ice pellets or snow. If it is all snow another 1-2" is probable.

Friday and the Weekend. Lots of clouds and the chance of some snow showers. Extremely cold. Teens during the days and below 0F at night.

Early next week. It is a long ways away but there is potential for another storm. Lots of cold air around so it could be another dump of snow. Even beyond this possibility there are more storms lined up across the country. In fact the weather models don't even show us rising much above freezing until the second week of March.

[Cyclone-68]

Heck with this. Might as well embrace it and get aboard the futility train at this point. At least THAT would be interesting LOL 

[CoastalWx]

HRRR is really cold  tomorrow.

[Lava Rock]

38.7.

[CoastalWx]

42. 

[8611Blizz]

Honestly if this thing keeps trending warmer at the coast I'm not going to complain.  Tomorrow afternoon/night seems like the time to worry about slick spots here in town.  

43.5 25.2

[CoastalWx]

NAM is no snow south of MA/NH border now lol.

[8611Blizz]

Looks like the "shirk hole" has expanded?

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM is no snow south of MA/NH border now lol.

What a drastic juxtaposition looking at the 12/18Z NAM/3K. Just completely dried everything up. Looking at the radar though it looks more like what 12Z was showing than 18.  Should have a quick burst of snow/sleet through CT this evening. 

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR is really cold  tomorrow.

Colder in BOS than upstate NY

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR is really cold  tomorrow.

Doesnt it warm up prior to the second batch with 925 winds going SSE, nam has most areas to 33 by time second batch of precip arrives , which is kinda funny 

[tunafish]

GYX taken' 'em back up.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, tunafish said:

GYX taken' 'em back up.

After 18z nam they may take em back down lol

[tunafish]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

After 18z nam they may take em back down lol

They usually don't go making big changes to graphics this close in.  Took me from 6.0" earlier today up to 7.3".  

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

After 18z nam they may take em back down lol

Looks like the NAM down here.

[dryslot]

Only added close to 1", Went from 7.6" to 8.4", Just kicked us into the the 8-12" from 6-8", That is still only going to 7pm thursday so you can probably add another 1-3" into friday.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Nam does sneak 2-3” on a ese trajectory into Groton ma to Northern half of Essex county Area . Looks like ray might actually be in one of the “better“ spots for SNE snow . Nothing big obviously but could tack on 2-4” if things break  right  

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Doesnt it warm up prior to the second batch with 925 winds going SSE, nam has most areas to 33 by time second batch of precip arrives , which is kinda funny 

HRRR doesn't do that and neither does the Euro....NAM is the only one that erodes it all prior to round 2. It's gonna be hard to dislodge it once it oozes down....you need a legit mechanism to move that dense air. Right on the water it would be easier if you can turn the flow onshore, but I don't see how you remove it from, say, the 128 belt.

[HoarfrostHubb]

OTA Mets finally getting in board with the tucky 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Rap gone wild north of the pike.

[Modfan2]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Rap gone wild north of the pike.

Think it’s onto a colder solution the other models aren’t picking up on?

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Think it’s onto a colder solution the other models aren’t picking up on?

It's coming in slightly colder, but the biggest difference is it's ripping the rates much better than on earlier runs. It hammers for about 3-4 hours this evening. Other guidance has been pretty paltry with rates while it's still cold enough to snow up until you are north of NH border.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM is no snow south of MA/NH border now lol.

Well, it is lightly snowing here attm.   Not that expect much in terms of snow

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Well, it is lightly snowing here attm.   Not that expect much in terms of snow

It had some near NH border, but very little south of rt 2. Seems suspect anyways. 

[TalcottWx]

I think a snowy bust might be on our hands, at least in Northern CT. 

[Spaizzo]

We have light snow and sleet down here in Ansonia turned over from rain about 5 min ago


.

[powderfreak]

Heaviest tonight IMO up north will be on the 700mb thermal gradient.  Best mid-level fronto.

Models like that CVT toward Lakes Region.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just home from a couple days in and around Albany …. Snowed hard on the way home thru the Berks. Ground is white here . Haven’t looked at much but not thinking or planning on anymore snow . Hopefully a lot of zr 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just home from a couple days in and around Albany …. Snowed hard on the way home thru the Berks. Ground is white here . Haven’t looked at much but not thinking or planning on anymore snow . Hopefully a lot of zr 

Did you get snow?