Very persistent signal for moderate snow and ice impact between "Wed night" and "Thur night" this week

[mahk_webstah]

23 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 

Not that I think it will happen, but that depiction really stops the sleep, line and southern Merrimack County up here. That would give us a nice snow.

[mahk_webstah]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That’s what we need up here for the higher range. Fight back those warming midlevels for a couple of hours and sneak another couple of inches in. 

Rates rates rates.  We rates

 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Rates rates rates.  We rates

 

You get your 8” of crud on hrrr.

[CoastalWx]

Man what a violent tuck. Might even be some OE under that shit.

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

You get your 8” of crud on hrrr.

7 or more is my standard

for heavy snow.

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Congrats Dendrite.  How much OTG right now?

8"

Actually make that 9" after the inch last night

[wx2fish]

Nam looks like a bump south. Little better front end qpf around here too. 

[weathafella]

Yeah nam came back to earth.  

[dendrite]

Yeah NAM is all snow here. Bump'em up

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man what a violent tuck. Might even be some OE under that shit.

HRRR gets teens into metrowest now, lol

[CoastalWx]

Ok mark maybe hold at 8” afterall. Lol. 

[weathafella]

The tuck seems earlier than guidance a couple of days ago.

[CoastalWx]

Much colder at 925. Probably a lot of Sleet for BOS.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The tuck seems earlier than guidance a couple of days ago.

It really accelerates Thursday morning.

[CoastalWx]

A little less aggressive with the tuck though. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

A little less aggressive with the tuck though. 

It's further southwest but less east....it's trying to maintain a CF which is also what the Euro was doing until late Thu afternoon....though the NAM maintains the CF into Thu evening.

[ORH_wxman]

3k is more aggressive with the tuck than 12k. Brings BOS below freezing by midday Thursday

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's further southwest but less east....it's trying to maintain a CF which is also what the Euro was doing until late Thu afternoon....though the NAM maintains the CF into Thu evening.

Usually I would lean more aggressive, but who knows. Pretty lame verbatim compared to HRRR.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Usually I would lean more aggressive, but who knows. Pretty lame verbatim compared to HRRR.

Yeah well the HRRR is usually....

 

[CoastalWx]

I wonder if it's because the low is further south. IOW, less of an ageostrophic response with the low further SE. But no doubt just aloft it is much cooler.

[Modfan2]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

3k is more aggressive with the tuck than 12k. Brings BOS below freezing by midday Thursday

Sleet into NE CT/NW RI

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

DIT’s favorite warning in his favorite city, wishing he lived there:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
408 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

MIZ063-068>070-075-222115-
/O.CON.KDTX.IS.W.0001.230222T1700Z-230223T0900Z/
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-
Including the cities of Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, Warren,
and Ann Arbor
408 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total snow accumulations of
  up to two inches and ice accumulations of a quarter to half
  inch.

* WHERE...St. Clair, Livingston, Oakland, Macomb and Washtenaw
  Counties.

* WHEN...From noon today to 4 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow and sleet is expected to develop
  through this morning before transitioing to freezing rain and
  sleet by midday. Freezing rain will continue in the evening
  with significant icing occuring before tapering off Wednesday
  night.

[Typhoon Tip]

been in meetings all morning stealing glances.. sorry if this is covered - which I'm sure it must have been knowing this gang. LOL

Just saw the new NAM FOUS grid numbers.  Pretty chilly...  coldest run for this mess I've seen out of that particular guidance.  

These numbers are all snow for 4-6 hours at Logan on the front 'wall' of this thing:

18037987363 07119 160914 46009798... this is .37" thru 0C 980,-3 900,-2 800 mb
24025987730 -1425 120620 48009602 

The next period is .25" at 0, -4, +2  ...but +2 is not really enough to melt aggregate completely unless the layer is thick.  I'm assuming there is a warm layer above 800 ...but not abundantly certain without looking at the NAM modeled soundings...   Assuming there is, that is tall sleet column. 

This is near warning snow/IP combination totals at Logan just using these numerics and what they mean as a guide.  Obviously, this is old school and there's modern other tech we use..

[subdude]

We be shoveling pellets...

[monadnocks]

At this point, I'd just love to know what it's going to be like at commute times tomorrow.  Am I going to wake up to 3 inches of snow with a nice sleet covering per GYX or 5-8" of snow from another site which coworkers default to? Type A planners go brrrr

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Ok mark maybe hold at 8” afterall. Lol. 

No shrinkage.  We bump.

[SnoSki14]

12z Nam just cut temps by 30 degrees down in NYC/NJ. From low 70s to 40s. That blows 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

12z Nam just cut temps by 30 degrees down in NYC/NJ. From low 70s to 40s. That blows 

Welcome to our April

[weathafella]

We’re gonna waste the ok mid levels for awhile unfortunately.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, dendrite said:

Welcome to our April

Opening day at Fenway is March 30.  That’s a good plan