Very persistent signal for moderate snow and ice impact between "Wed night" and "Thur night" this week

[CT Rain]

GFS has one heck of a cold tuck Thursday. Going to be icy. 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

GFS has one heck of a cold tuck Thursday. Going to be icy. 

Sneaking some teens into N MA. That’s gonna be interesting to follow.

[8611Blizz]

Yeah this has traffic disaster written all over it. Hopefully the media gets out the warning and people stay off the roads.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

GFS could have some in MA measuring sleet in inches.  Be fun to get some freezing drizzle on top of that.

[#NoPoles]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

3km NAM is good up this way, the blocked SE flow and then unblocked westerly flow helps on the east slopes throughout NNE.

This is a good illustration of how Bretton Woods usually gets shadowed and Phin cashes in

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sneaking some teens into N MA. That’s gonna be interesting to follow.

Euro had me down to 18-19

[CoastalWx]

Euro warmed and qpf shifted north a bit.

[BombsAway1288]

BOX is very unimpressed with this. Has nothing (snow and ice) inside 128, less then 1” 495 including ORH and 1-2 up the border. 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

BOX is very unimpressed with this. Has nothing (snow and ice) inside 128, less then 1” 495 including ORH and 1-2 up the border. 

The mesos albeit initially too warm I think have the right idea. Although I definitely would have some snow and ice inside 128 and that tuck tomorrow may cause issues.

Just saw the 6z nam and that isn’t backing down. 

[Modfan2]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The mesos albeit initially too warm I think have the right idea. Although I definitely would have some snow and ice inside 128 and that tuck tomorrow may cause issues.

Just saw the 6z nam and that isn’t backing down. 

I’m thinking my 250’ elevation is going to hurt me down here vs Ginxy with elevation and might stay frozen longer. Expecting a coating of snow some sleet, freezing rain then plain rain

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

I’m thinking my 250’ elevation is going to hurt me down here vs Ginxy with elevation and might stay frozen longer. Expecting a coating of snow some sleet, freezing rain then plain rain

Won’t matter much there. It’s all about the temperatures aloft.

[TalcottWx]

It is incredible how much of an outlier these NAM runs appear to be. Not even close to the GFS.

[Ginx snewx]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The mesos albeit initially too warm I think have the right idea. Although I definitely would have some snow and ice inside 128 and that tuck tomorrow may cause issues.

Just saw the 6z nam and that isn’t backing down. 

Mesoos definitely caving towards globals. 6 Z 12K NAM backed down colder south

[qg_omega]

15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Mesoos definitely caving towards globals. 6 Z 12K NAM backed down colder south

Almost no trend there

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Almost no trend there

Are you trolling, or drinking early? It literally shows a south trend.

[tunafish]

Wife and kids are supposed to drive PWM to Dendrite land via 95>101 Thursday early afternoon. Precip rates look light at that time, so I'm assuming crews will be able to stay on top of road conditions. Keep seeing cold tuck and mixed precip, which is my concern. 

Bad assumption/idea to drive? 

[moneypitmike]

15 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Wife and kids are supposed to drive PWM to Dendrite land via 95>101 Thursday early afternoon. Precip rates look light at that time, so I'm assuming crews will be able to stay on top of road conditions. Keep seeing cold tuck and mixed precip, which is my concern. 

Bad assumption/idea to drive? 

Probably if you're heading up there.  Though it's going to be snow there rather than slop, so they have that in their favor.

[mahk_webstah]

5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Probably if you're heading up there.  Though it's going to be snow there rather than slop, so they have that in their favor.

Not gonna be all snow up here.  Heaviest snow mixing with and changing to sleet to end by noon, west to east.  Then a lull and precipitation moves back in towards eve.

[moneypitmike]

5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Not gonna be all snow up here.  Heaviest snow mixing with and changing to sleet to end by noon, west to east.  Then a lull and precipitation moves back in towards eve.

Okay....I see the sleet.  Still mostly a snow event--at least up in Maine.

Tonight

Snow before 3am, then snow, possibly mixed with sleet. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 19. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Thursday

Snow, possibly mixed with sleet, becoming all snow after 9am. High near 23. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Thursday Night

Snow. Low around 15. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

[Ginx snewx]

34 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Almost no trend there

Depicts frozen line further south. Look at PA especially as that is closest to go time. Based on that wagons south for Nam

[Modfan2]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Depicts frozen line further south. Look at PA especially as that is closest to go time. Based on that wagons south for Nam

What does that mean for us? 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, Modfan2 said:

What does that mean for us? 

Colder rain

[Ginx snewx]

16 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Not gonna be all snow up here.  Heaviest snow mixing with and changing to sleet to end by noon, west to east.  Then a lull and precipitation moves back in towards eve.

Euro sleet line

[ORH_wxman]

06z euro looks like it ticked slightly colder than 00z. Gonna be close here. I could see half an inch before pellets or 4-5”. 

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z euro looks like it ticked slightly colder than 00z. Gonna be close here. I could see half an inch before pellets or 4-5”. 

BOX p/c is much more mundane than the wording of the advisory.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Mesoos definitely caving towards globals. 6 Z 12K NAM backed down colder south

That shows pellets  too, so that’s not a good comparison. The globals definitely got warmer. And I suspect they aren’t done. I’m also thinking The best lift and QPF will be north and that’s another issue we may have in the snow department.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

BOX p/c is much more mundane than the wording of the advisory.

I’m not planning on much snow here. But if we get 3 or 4 inches I’ll be pleasantly surprised. The most interesting part of the event here is prob the temp crash during Thursday. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I’m not planning on much snow here. But if we get 3 or 4 inches I’ll be pleasantly surprised. The most interesting part of the event here is prob the temp crash during Thursday. 

Same. A coating to maybe 1 inch if lucky. Like you I’m more interested in tomorrow afternoon.

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That shows pellets  too, so that’s not a good comparison. The globals definitely got warmer. And I suspect they aren’t done. I’m also thinking The best lift and QPF will be north and that’s another issue we may have in the snow department.

Yea wasn't talking snow here. Colder at the surface for extended frozen. 

[Ginx snewx]

31 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Not gonna be all snow up here.  Heaviest snow mixing with and changing to sleet to end by noon, west to east.  Then a lull and precipitation moves back in towards eve.

You will probably be 95% snow . 8 to 12