Very persistent signal for moderate snow and ice impact between "Wed night" and "Thur night" this week

[NW_of_GYX]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Mesos vs globals right now

Correct. And as some mets have already noted, the synoptic solutions the Nam suite had earlier didn't make sense. The 18z starts what looks to be a trend south. A lot of hand wringing here from folks who look to walk away with a nice little snow storm. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Gfs 3 inches pike to 4 ish NH border

4-6” N Essex county 

 

[CoastalWx]

GFS might be a bit warmer.

[NW_of_GYX]

18z gfs brings the good qpf further north. Goal posts tightening. 

[dendrite]

14 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Who you got 

I’ll go 18z rgem

[duncanwxnh]

28 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I should probably learn to look at models, but it seemed to me that people in the thread were talking about slightly further south, and slightly colder solutions, which I assumed would result in more snow up by me north of Concord. It sounds like the midlevel warmth is going further north though. The watch is still in place, but seems that they are leaning advisory.  Gene might be safe but sounds like this is not a big event south of the Lakes region and foothills.  I’m kinda surprised.

Neighbor, looks like one of those storms where I will be in Concord and Jealous of you in Bosc.... :-( 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

All we're doing in here it pointing out the very typical oscillations that happen to everything that is ever modeled. 

Step back and look at it from Orbit...this has been solid and relatively unalterable since a day ...day and half ago.  Every storm that is ever modeled, no matter the scale or the intensity, varies just like this - typically... no one notices, because they are safely inside the threat area where such minuscule movement are irrelevant ... thus, unnoticed. 

In other words, it's unlikely to be an indication of this moving en mass N or S from here on out.  These 'giga' motions are going to take place in the guidance output, right through verification.  

You'll know if this wholesale makes a definitive move.

[DavisStraight]

43 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I should probably learn to look at models, but it seemed to me that people in the thread were talking about slightly further south, and slightly colder solutions, which I assumed would result in more snow up by me north of Concord. It sounds like the midlevel warmth is going further north though. The watch is still in place, but seems that they are leaning advisory.  Gene might be safe but sounds like this is not a big event south of the Lakes region and foothills.  I’m kinda surprised.

Looks like the lake north gets the brunt, not sure where your town is, maybe on the borderline?

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

All we're doing in here it pointing out the very typical oscillations that happen to everything that is ever modeled. 

Step back and look at it from Orbit...this has been solid and relatively unalterable since a day ...day and half ago.  Every storm that is ever modeled, no matter the scale or the intensity, varies just like this - typically... no one notices, because they are safely inside the threat area where such minuscule movement are irrelevant ... thus, unnoticed. 

In other words, it's unlikely to be an indication of this moving en mass N or S from here on out.  These 'giga' motions are going to take place in the guidance output, right through verification.  

You'll know if this wholesale makes a definitive move.

Yeah it has trended surprisingly little in the past 2-3 days....guess we'll see if we can get one last colder push for us pike to rt 2 dwellers, but I doubt any major changes are coming. I kind of expect some tiny little ticks north/warmer in the final 24 hours here, but who knows....maybe it will throw us a bone for 6 hours tomorrow evening.

As much as we joke about the model dopamine drip, I do actually like watching snow falling from the sky, so it would be nice to get 6 hours of moderate to heavy snowfall for once this winter. Been an utter dearth of snow lasting more than about 2 hours this season and a vast majority of them were like today....33F grass/car top jobs that start melting immediately after it falls.

[40/70 Benchmark]

47 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Gfs 3 inches pike to 4 ish NH border

4-6” N Essex county 

 

"No changes".

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/02/final-call-for-mess-thursday-commutes.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

that's utter trash up here

Not using it for your area.

[mahk_webstah]

39 minutes ago, duncanwxnh said:

Neighbor, looks like one of those storms where I will be in Concord and Jealous of you in Bosc.... :-( 

 

not if you believe GYX.  But...maybe.  If you get a lot of sleet we definitely get some significant sleet.

[duncanwxnh]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

not if you believe GYX.  But...maybe.  If you get a lot of sleet we definitely get some significant sleet.

we have a 1400 call with them tomorrow. See what the 'true' feelings are :-) 

[tunafish]

Anecdotally...and fwiw... I've been tracking GYX forecast amounts to actuals for PWM this year (and last) after (Chris, I think?) mentioned they have an over-forecast bias.

This year they've been remarkably accurate.  They are under-forecasting to the tune of 7.6", half of which came on the 12/16 event.  They have only over-forecast on the 1/25 event (by 2.3")

[HIPPYVALLEY]

BOX is unimpressed for snow. 
 

&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Our active and progressive weather pattern continues during this period as we see a ridge of high pressure briefly bring a quiet and dry period of weather for Wednesday before another winter weather system arrives Wednesday night. This storm starts as a low pressure over the Midwest Wednesday afternoon before it moves into NY/PA Wednesday night, generating a secondary low along the frontal boundary off the mid Atlantic coast overnight into Thursday. Precipitation arrives in western MA and CT after sunset Wednesday associated with the warm frontextending from the parent low. Given this timing we`re not expecting an impact to the Wednesday evening commute. Temperatures through the column may be initially cold enough for this to start off as snow for some, though there remains much uncertainty as to the timing/details of this dynamic mixed precipitation event. There is high confidence in a stout warm nose around 800 mb which will produce sleet and freezing rain, eventually changing to rain. The low confidence comes with how quickly that warm nose moves in. The faster guidance would allow very little time for any snow, while the slower global guidance keeps precipitation as snow for several hours before flipping over. We are just getting into the window of the higher resolution guidance, and for now we`ll stick with a blend of the two solutions, with some minimal snowfall accumulations at the onset, northwest of the I-95 corridor, then flipping to sleet and freezing rain. Best shot at a few inches of snow will be for northern MA. Of greater concern for travel interests during Thursday morning`s commute will be the icy precipitation (sleet/freezing rain). For areas south and east of I- 95 a mostly rain solution is favored. Eventually the dry slot moves overhead Thursday morning bringing an end to precipitation by afternoon. After widespread highs in the 40s on Wednesday we`ll be cooler for most on Thursday. Given the path of the low, it will direct cold north/northeasterly flow into southern New England as it passes on Thursday so the warmest part of the day will be early, with colder air funneling in during the afternoon. Highs will be coldest in northern MA and warmest along the south coast. &&

 

[duncanwxnh]

4 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Anecdotally...and fwiw... I've been tracking GYX forecast amounts to actuals for PWM this year (and last) after (Chris, I think?) mentioned they have an over-forecast bias.

This year they've been remarkably accurate.  They are under-forecasting to the tune of 7.6", half of which came on the 12/16 event.  They have only over-forecast on the 1/25 event (by 2.3")

real good team up thar

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Ice

[STILL N OF PIKE]

55 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

"No changes".

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/02/final-call-for-mess-thursday-commutes.html

I don’t see more than 1-2” at NH/ border , not a big difference than what you have but just saying what I think 

another 32-33 F system , at least some of them have been snow compared to pike south folks 

[ORH_wxman]

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ice

Mostly marginal I think until we get the cold drain later in the event prior to round 2. 

[Torch Tiger]

looks good

[Chris12WX]

What does the Narcan show?

[TalcottWx]

Looks terrible and uneventful for CT outside of a glaze. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

10 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Looks terrible and uneventful for CT outside of a glaze. 

Well said 

[powderfreak]

This from BTV seems reasonable.  I think 6-10” or 7-11” is a good guess for most spots in their area.

Snowfall totals are in the 7-11 inch
range with potentially 11-15 inches on mountaintops.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This from BTV seems reasonable.  I think 6-10” or 7-11” is a good guess for most spots in their area.

Snowfall totals are in the 7-11 inch
range with potentially 11-15 inches on mountaintops.

You guys just have so much More wiggle room to snow In the -PNA this year . Latitude has been king . The more the better 

[ORH_wxman]

18z euro def tickled a little colder. Has a couple inches into N CT tomorrow night and about 5-6 for the pike. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

18z euro def tickled a little colder. Has a couple inches into N CT tomorrow night and about 5-6 for the pike. 

Will what seems to be driving the little shifts ...i know you said there were multiple factors competing ..do models lock in on some of these better at 36 hours out 

[CoastalWx]

I noticed on the 12z run it looked like the PV to the north was ever so slightly exerting some force to the south. Haven’t looked at 18z, but it’s a tad colder.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Will what seems to be driving the little shifts ...i know you said there were multiple factors competing ..do models lock in on some of these better at 36 hours out 

I’ve noticed the PV has been extending/elongating just a hair SE on these colder runs lowering the heights in NE. I’m not entirely sure on the reason we are seeing those little wobbles.  Might be how it’s interacting with today’s shortwave.
 

I think Tip’s overall larger view has been very correct on this one…that PV is a monster and isn’t going to move very easily so it’s that versus the western trough and the forces are pretty equal at the moment. But since your area in the NH border region down to mine near the pike is right on the line, we’re sweating these 15 mile wobbles whereas nobody in NYC gives a crap and powderfreak doesn’t give a crap either…it’s mostly been the same solutions for them outside the “marginal zone” where we are. 

[dryslot]

Always hate sitting on fences with not a lot of wiggle room for wintry outcomes, You're model watching right up until go time in many of these.