Very persistent signal for moderate snow and ice impact between "Wed night" and "Thur night" this week

[HIPPYVALLEY]

13 minutes ago, Brewbeer said:

It will be the first for me …. If it happens

I hope it works out there. I have a bit more latitude of course so I’m planning on some snow to sleet.

[DJln491]

my snowblower has become like my parent's treadmill in the 90s - a coat rack in the garage

[weathafella]

NAM coming back to earth at happy hour.  Colder through 36.

[CoastalWx]

I like 60 for Kevin and 28 for BOS on the HRRR.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weathafella said:

NAM coming back to earth at happy hour.  Colder through 36.

Yeah it was super zonked the last couple runs. Synoptically, it seemed very likely it would come south some. 

[dryslot]

Keep the pellets south.

[kdxken]

17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Me too!  Brand new bought with so much promise in December….

 

[weathafella]

Still north of all other guidance.

[George001]

Kev, do you still think you are getting an ice storm? Or are you having second thoughts?

[40/70 Benchmark]

EURO now looks pretty much exactly like my first call (think positive snow depth change map, not dumb clowns)...not sure I will change much from the First Call on Sunday.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EURO now looks pretty much exactly like my first call (think positive snow depth change map, not dumb clowns)...not sure I will change much from the First Call on Sunday.

 

[NotSureWeather]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Pretty darn close. Nice job!

[George001]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EURO now looks pretty much exactly like my first call (think positive snow depth change map, not dumb clowns)...not sure I will change much from the First Call on Sunday.

I saw in your blog that you mentioned concern about the mid levels tracking well inland, which isn’t a good setup for big snows in SNE. It looks like your first call is going to end up being the right idea. That goes to show that the models are good if used correctly, rather than just ripping and reading 10:1 snow maps. That’s why I was skeptical of those gfs 10:1 snow maps that gave even my area a foot. I saw the image on your blog of the mid level low going into Canada and lowered my expectations for snow accordingly (for this threat). The models are still waffling around some so I’m not really sure if for my area I should expect more sleet or ice.

[George001]

5 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

Pretty darn close. Nice job!

I’ve gotten burned in these swfes ripping and reading 10:1 snow maps. Those are especially horrible for these because they count all frozen precip as snow. That’s fine when you are getting all snow, but when you are getting sleet and or ice (which my area especially often does in these setups) 10:1 maps significantly overestimate snow totals. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Hopefully this is high impact somewhere near Boston so governor Healey gives us a day off 

[weathafella]

19 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’ve gotten burned in these swfes ripping and reading 10:1 snow maps. Those are especially horrible for these because they count all frozen precip as snow. That’s fine when you are getting all snow, but when you are getting sleet and or ice (which my area especially often does in these setups) 10:1 maps significantly overestimate snow totals. 

Look at soundings.  They’ll give you more precise guidance.  

[tunafish]

GYX slashing some

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Seems right, Dave and the N Orh Co elevation crew, get double everyone else in SNE. 
I will be happily surprised but not shocked if you and I get 4-5” out of this before the sleet.  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

7 minutes ago, tunafish said:

GYX slashing some

 

@Lava Rockis not pleased with this development. 

[tunafish]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

@Lava Rockis not pleased with this development. 

Certainly not.

Was surprised to see this after the mention of the NAM moving S (synoptically).   In actuality, it took PWM "Point" forecast on these maps from 6.5" to 5.7", enough to drop the range even though it's less than an inch different.  

Will just be nice to cover up the mud again.

[Lava Rock]

44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

that's utter trash up here

[Lava Rock]

1 minute ago, tunafish said:

Certainly not.

Was surprised to see this after the mention of the NAM moving S (synoptically).   In actuality, it took PWM "Point" forecast on these maps from 6.5" to 5.7", enough to drop the range even though it's less than an inch different.  

Will just be nice to cover up the mud again.

I'll take 6-8" vs the euro's 4".

[tunafish]

2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

that's utter trash up here

Only through hr 55.  we have several hours left to go at that point (I think).

[NW_of_GYX]

1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

I'll take 6-8" vs the euro's 4".

[NW_of_GYX]

18z NAM

lava gonna meh his way to 8"

[tamarack]

10 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

that's utter trash up here

Instead of 8" here from the first wave, it's maybe 3.  WWA criteria, but still would be the month's biggest snowfall.

Edit:  Seeing the map that includes Act II, maybe 6" total, still WWA.  Hope the lowered numbers aren't a trend.

[mahk_webstah]

I should probably learn to look at models, but it seemed to me that people in the thread were talking about slightly further south, and slightly colder solutions, which I assumed would result in more snow up by me north of Concord. It sounds like the midlevel warmth is going further north though. The watch is still in place, but seems that they are leaning advisory.  Gene might be safe but sounds like this is not a big event south of the Lakes region and foothills.  I’m kinda surprised.

[dendrite]

Mesos vs globals right now

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Mesos vs globals right now

Who you got 

[WeatherWilly]

WeatherWX keeps moving the goalposts for an actual snow event. Now it's March 4th. I'll panic when the goalposts are in May.