STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 On 2/21/2023 at 3:39 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Models have 1”+ qpf south of 90. Much of that will be zr Expand What model would that be ...GFBEER? 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 GFS not running? at least it can't disappoint us then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 On 2/21/2023 at 3:27 PM, ORH_wxman said: 2nd batch is where the cold tuck could be dangerous. Still not seeing much trend so far at 12z. NAM still an absolute furnace and we don’t even get much precip from round 1. Dryslotted. RGEM cooled a tick (lot of sleet after brief snow) ICON cooled even more, has a pretty decent thump on the pike kind of like the euro. Im guessing NAM is too amped but the colder models are too flat if someone held a gun to my head. Expand 2nd batch is what to watch for sure. I just don't see much snow near the pike. Will be happy to be wrong, but just my gut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 goal posts are there. I like where I am in the middle of them. 6-8 would be great since it hasn't snowed here in almost a month. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Fom GYX AFD: The NAM is particularly bullish but we can`t discount it since it has done well with temperature profiles in these southwest flow aloft overunning scenarios. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 On 2/21/2023 at 3:43 PM, CoastalWx said: No they don't. Expand The euro does 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 On 2/21/2023 at 3:49 PM, Damage In Tolland said: The euro does Expand Not anymore. Sell that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Euro is like 0.4" for Kevin. LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 On 2/21/2023 at 3:54 PM, CoastalWx said: Not anymore. Sell that. Expand 00z was. Let’s see about 12z. Who cares about off hour run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 On 2/21/2023 at 3:55 PM, CoastalWx said: Euro is like 0.4" for Kevin. LOL. Expand Euro had more QPF by pike bc it was furthest south with the boundary , would think it makes a compromise next 36 hours but who knows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Gfs running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 On 2/21/2023 at 3:58 PM, Damage In Tolland said: 00z was. Let’s see about 12z. Who cares about off hour run Expand The forcing is all north. You'll be lucky for half inch QPF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 GFS giving pike a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 GFS decided to cool slightly. Decent thump for MA. At some point either the NAM or the globals are going to make some noticeable moves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Gfs seems to start earlier and moved toward euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 How far north are those torched mid-levels on the NAM? Asking for a backyard near me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 go with the nam, ignore everything else. we torch. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 It wouldn't shock me is 925ish cooled a bit, but it's tough to buy snowier solutions with these set ups. Still have some time to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 On 2/21/2023 at 4:09 PM, tunafish said: How far north are those torched mid-levels on the NAM? Asking for a backyard near me. Expand They taint your area. NAM might be too far north synoptically..which is the thing to watch. We know it can handle the elevated warm layers well, but it only matters if it is correct synoptically. If it is simply just too far north with the storm, then it will be wrong. I think Euro/GFS are likely too cold aloft here but the magnitude will matter a lot…esp for those more up near NH border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 On 2/21/2023 at 4:09 PM, tunafish said: How far north are those torched mid-levels on the NAM? Asking for a backyard near me. Expand farther north than you are 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 GFS soundings don't really show that classic warm bulge aloft compared to the NAM. Not sure that makes sense at all. The NAM does show this, ..but maybe the whole solution is too far north. So take the soundings, but think about a possible correction south. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 On 2/21/2023 at 4:15 PM, CoastalWx said: GFS soundings don't really show that classic warm bulge aloft compared to the NAM. Not sure that makes sense at all. The NAM does show this, ..but maybe the whole solution is too far north. So take the soundings, but think about a possible correction south. Expand Yeah there is a complete disconnect synoptically right now with NAM and others. It’s basically dryslotting us before any real robust precip. That’s separate than a simple sounding disagreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 On 2/21/2023 at 3:27 PM, ORH_wxman said: 2nd batch is where the cold tuck could be dangerous. Still not seeing much trend so far at 12z. NAM still an absolute furnace and we don’t even get much precip from round 1. Dryslotted. RGEM cooled a tick (lot of sleet after brief snow) ICON cooled even more, has a pretty decent thump on the pike kind of like the euro. Im guessing NAM is too amped but the colder models are too flat if someone held a gun to my head. Expand NAM was awful outlier in this Tuesday event, I expect a cold trend into Thursday. But for most I'm skeptical about how significant the shift would actually be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 So how's everyone's week going? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Canadian cooled a bit. Again, probably doesn’t matter for most, but it did cool some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 On 2/21/2023 at 4:18 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah there is a complete disconnect synoptically right now with NAM and others. It’s basically dryslotting us before any real robust precip. That’s separate than a simple sounding disagreement. Expand Yeah I was comparing similar areas in the snow shield to get a thermal sense because taking the sounding at the same location is night and day between NAM and GFS, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 GFS is 35F here Thursday afternoon while 3kNAM is 65F with sun . It’s ain’t going to snow so we might as well torch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2023 Author Share Posted February 21, 2023 On 2/21/2023 at 4:07 PM, ORH_wxman said: GFS decided to cool slightly. Decent thump for MA. At some point either the NAM or the globals are going to make some noticeable moves. Expand well they'd better hurry ... Running out of time before they have to just be flat out considered busts... I don't accept in recent tech advancing in these tools ... a day's lead than 'oh, by the way'? UN acceptable. That is a failure That said... were/if folks were 'hoping' cold corrections would continue right on into a snowier solution for us, down here, ...yeah, not impossible. But it was never really on the better side of the odds with this mess. It's still really unchanged to be blunt. Looks like RUT -PWM ~ latitude for snow to me, with IP --> ZR --> cold rain however far it takes to ruin yet another opportunity in this winter of misfits going S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 On 2/21/2023 at 4:11 PM, NW_of_GYX said: farther north than you are Expand i have taint in my point/click Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 On 2/21/2023 at 4:22 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah I was comparing similar areas in the snow shield to get a thermal sense because taking the sounding at the same location is night and day between NAM and GFS, Expand Almost seems like it's more of a synoptic issue with the track of the mid level lows than a typical meso vs global kind of battle in a SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now