Very persistent signal for moderate snow and ice impact between "Wed night" and "Thur night" this week

[codfishsnowman]

Well regardless how it shakes out this week sounds fairly active with at least some wintry precip on tap. Maybe I will soar in to double digits ( need two inches)

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro was pretty snowy to the pike. 

What would you expect for sleet accums down this way? Looks like the euro is a paint peeler 

[WxWatcher007]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Should we start a new thread for tomorrows "little critter that's trying to bite"  ?  this is turning into a free-for-all

I like keeping one thread, but if tomorrow produces there are going to be a lot of obs that will clog up this thread. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

What would you expect for sleet accums down this way? Looks like the euro is a paint peeler 

Will be dependent on QPF and temps. Tough to really say. If you want more than an inch of sleet I’d like to see temps less than 32 and a solid half inch qpf. 

[8611Blizz]

Looks like a classic shit storm. GFS has Boston going from 40 to 26 in a span of 6 hours. That is not going to go well.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I like keeping one thread, but if tomorrow produces there are going to be a lot of obs that will clog up this thread. 

I think we could start an obs thread late tonight as a compromise. The model analysis can stay in here for the next 12 hours on the 2/21 stuff. 

[Damage In Tolland]

How much qpf south of 90?

[CoastalWx]

Kind of lost the tuck ironically. 

[FXWX]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How much qpf south of 90?

Around an inch total qpf; give or take few hundreds

[STILL N OF PIKE]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Kind of lost the tuck ironically. 

On today’s euro (For 12z  Thursday to 0z Friday ) the 32 isotherm is closer to Boston than it was On the 0z run 

[Whineminster]

20 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Paint peeler on the euro here. I will say, hours and hours of sleet may be interesting 

It makes for terrible roads, grease. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Around an inch total qpf; give or take few hundreds

That’s much juicier than 00z.. so finally some good news 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

On today’s euro (For 12z  Thursday to 0z Friday ) the 32 isotherm is closer to Boston than it was On the 0z run 

It just doesn’t really rip it southeast like some guidance which is what the “tuck” part of cold tuck is really defined by.
 

It actually cools during the day Thursday over the interior though…obvious cold drain going on there but not the same as the tuck south/southeast. 

[Typhoon Tip]

man, that commute Thurs morning is going to be a nasty -

[CoastalWx]

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It just doesn’t really rip it southeast like some guidance which is what the “tuck” part of cold tuck is really defined by.
 

It actually cools during the day Thursday over the interior though…obvious cold drain going on there but not the same as the tuck south/southeast. 

Yeah usually models aren’t quick enough to bring it further SE.  Definitely related to some ageostrophic processes and the meso low.

[CoastalWx]

31 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

On today’s euro (For 12z  Thursday to 0z Friday ) the 32 isotherm is closer to Boston than it was On the 0z run 

Yeah I saw. Unfortunately I think it will struggle to get near 32 unless we can cold drain better. 

[wx2fish]

Nam remains wild tomorrow

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, wx2fish said:

Nam remains wild tomorrow

Pikey thump.

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Nam remains wild tomorrow

Starts ripping in CT by midnight or so. Could be an interesting sensible wx shock…people grilling dinner at 55-60F in CT this evening to parachutes falling with several inches already OTG when they wake up. 

Other mesos continue to be a bit more tame but they still have it. More like 1-2” or so. 

[Modfan2]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Starts ripping in CT by midnight or so. Could be an interesting sensible wx shock…people grilling dinner at 55-60F in CT this evening to parachutes falling with several inches already OTG when they wake up. 

Other mesos continue to be a bit more tame but they still have it. More like 1-2” or so. 

Patiently waiting to see what it looks like tomorrow am

[ORH_wxman]

3k beefed up too from 12z. 

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

3k beefed up too from 12z. 

Went coating-2" for most of CT but damn the 18z NAM run is impressive.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Starts ripping in CT by midnight or so. Could be an interesting sensible wx shock…people grilling dinner at 55-60F in CT this evening to parachutes falling with several inches already OTG when they wake up. 

Other mesos continue to be a bit more tame but they still have it. More like 1-2” or so. 

I made a thread. 

[CoastalWx]

Nice cold rain on the nam lol.

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nice cold rain on the nam lol.

Way north too.  So far on its own but is it sniffing reality or glue?

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Way north too.  So far on its own but is it sniffing reality or glue?

3k seemed to start as snow while 12k was a furnace. My gut says we don’t get much snow in the pike region for 2/23, but Everytime I convince myself of that, the non-NAM runs keep singing a different tune. Hopefully we get a little more clarity tonight. 

[Damage In Tolland]

I dunno . I can think of numerous times in these events I tossed the NAM and it ended up correct . I think one of those events was earlier this winter 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

3k seemed to start as snow while 12k was a furnace. My gut says we don’t get much snow in the pike region for 2/23, but Everytime I convince myself of that, the non-NAM runs keep singing a different tune. Hopefully we get a little more clarity tonight. 

Scott mentioned yesterday the heights on model runs has trended lower due to flatter weaker look of the wave moving across country , is the nam keeping the low more intact and pumping heights more than other guidance (if you follow what I’m trying to say )

[CoastalWx]

39 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Scott mentioned yesterday the heights on model runs has trended lower due to flatter weaker look of the wave moving across country , is the nam keeping the low more intact and pumping heights more than other guidance (if you follow what I’m trying to say )

I noticed a subtle trend to raise heights now.  

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I noticed a subtle trend to raise heights now.  

There’s the SE ridge always undermodeled until 48 hours out. Happens everytime