Very persistent signal for moderate snow and ice impact between "Wed night" and "Thur night" this week

[Lava Rock]

meh, 4-8". 8"+ would be better

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Ukie has the good snow to pike still 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ukie has the good snow to pike still 

Actually has 2-3" tomorrow for pike area.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Actually has 2-3" tomorrow for pike area.

Yup has both 

tomorrows is mostly before 1pm and south of route 2 

looks sneaky for CT hills

 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Yup has both 

tomorrows is mostly before 1pm and south of route 2 

 

Temps are borderline here (what else is new lol). 

[CoastalWx]

No offense @powderfreak I know some of the typical posters get reactional, but I definitely had a concern for 6z...and still do knowing how these work.

[ORH_wxman]

Haven’t really seen any 12z trend. NAM went warmer, GFS went colder, GGEM was maybe a tick colder but really close and Ukie looked a tick warmer as it comes back to earth a bit from being the cold outlier at 00z when it had warning snows into CT. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Temps are borderline here (what else is new lol). 

I’m liking the look AOA 500’ in CT / RI to maybe ORH

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’m liking the look AOA 500’ in CT / RI to maybe ORH

Those hilly areas north of the Merritt might be a decent spot tomorrow over to Ginxy and N RI hills. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Haven’t really seen any 12z trend. NAM went warmer, GFS went colder, GGEM was maybe a tick colder but really close and Ukie looked a tick warmer as it comes back to earth a bit from being the cold outlier at 00z when it had warning snows into CT. 

I've felt that the NAM usually leads the way in sniffing out the warmth. Let's see what happens this time

[powderfreak]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No offense @powderfreak I know some of the typical posters get reactional, but I definitely had a concern for 6z...and still do knowing how these work.

I didn’t think of you at all, you didn’t overreact or break a laptop .

The concern is definitely north mid-level trends.  Concern is different than overreacting.

But again, just busting balls.  We are all jokesters and good sports.  GFS had a nice one for you guys early next week.

[mahk_webstah]

I woke up to you a GY this discussion that had me just far north enough to get 2-4” of her snow tomorrow afternoon. Now this is a below deck system? That seems odd.  And a couple of days ago wasn’t this little clipper that was going to slide across near the Canadian border?

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I woke up to you a GY this discussion that had me just far north enough to get 2-4” of her snow tomorrow afternoon. Now this is a below deck system? That seems odd.  And a couple of days ago wasn’t this little clipper that was going to slide across near the Canadian border?

The 2/21 impulse actually has two parts to it (kind of like how 2/23 does too). That second part is more for NNE. But recently a more southern wave has tried to develop ahead of round 2. 

[moneypitmike]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Icon actually came in a decent tick colder. Has a nasty cold tuck over eastern areas too…temps crashing into 20s. That’s prob the top hazard in SNE…flash freeze potential for the areas that go from a quick burst to snow to IP to cold 34-35F rain but then it quickly falls to 27F with little notice. 
 

Still a possibility this ends up as mostly a sleet bomb too after an inch or two of snow. 

If we were to extend the fraud five, I’d put flash freeze as #6.

[mahk_webstah]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The 2/21 impulse actually has two parts to it (kind of like how 2/23 does too). That second part is more for NNE. But recently a more southern wave has tried to develop ahead of round 2. 

I guess there’s no need to be greedy, there’s plenty for the needy

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

If we were to extend the fraud five, I’d put flash freeze as #6.

Yeah they frequently don’t pan out because you need the low levels saturated which inherently is difficult when you are advecting in colder air. But this is an example of when it’s more likely to verify than usual. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Those hilly areas north of the Merritt might be a decent spot tomorrow over to Ginxy and N RI hills. 

Sey-mour snow land. Idk it’s going to be close here with temps but elevation will help. I’ll believe it tonight if more guidance confirms that narrow band of heavier precip. Looks like this could be a Prospect special about 10 miles NE of here has 1000’ elevation. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Sey-mour snow land. Idk it’s going to be close here with temps but elevation will help. I’ll believe it tonight if more guidance confirms that narrow band of heavier precip. Looks like this could be a Prospect special about 10 miles NE of here has 1000’ elevation. 

Seems like it all stays south of here . Good luck down that way 

[tunafish]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems like it all stays south of here . Good luck down that way 

Nothing for you " up there"?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Nothing for you " up there"?

He’s been hurt so many times . I’m hoping he gets a nice band

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah they frequently don’t pan out because you need the low levels saturated which inherently is difficult when you are advecting in colder air. But this is an example of when it’s more likely to verify than usual. 

I think what it is is that they are overly forecast. I've seen some flash freezes that moved street slush to turbo grease in 10 minutes flat at regional scale of DPW grid locking emergency crew nightmare.

2003 windex?     ..c'mon... people should know this.  There's nothing fraudulent about the advent of flash freezing. It's f'ing absolutely real. 

LOL, I guess you can have 'degrees of fraudulence'  ...haha.   Like I'd put ANA snow events uno numero on the list of yee-haw model solutions.   Then ... I dunno, Norlun as #2 ...  down the list is Tornado Watches and D7 1938's up the EC....  Flash freeze I'd put somewhere in there.  

All these aspects are real - eventually... it's a matter of return rate vs the rate in which humans like to forecast them.  hahaha 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Should we start a new thread for tomorrows "little critter that's trying to bite"  ?  this is turning into a free-for-all

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Should we start a new thread for tomorrows "little critter that's trying to bite"  ?  this is turning into a free-for-all

It’s a love bite / nibble 

1-2” S of pike 

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Yup has both 

tomorrows is mostly before 1pm and south of route 2 

looks sneaky for CT hills

 

You can bet 84 Will be closed by 6am.

[George001]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Should we start a new thread for tomorrows "little critter that's trying to bite"  ?  this is turning into a free-for-all

That could easily end up being the snowier event of the next 2 coming up. For my area anyways it looks im too far south for the Thursday one to stay snow, and will be getting more sleet and ice based on what the models are saying. I’m not really buying those gfs 10:1 snow maps since they count sleet and ice as snow. 

[CoastalWx]

Euro was pretty snowy to the pike. 

[CoastalWx]

Wonder if it’s omega related because it was juicer there too.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Wonder if it’s omega related because it was juicer there too.

Looks colder in low levels too. All of it may be related though…just like better omega leads to colder temps, colder temps initially (or via advection during the early stages) make a tighter thermal gradient is going to lead to better QPF too. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Paint peeler on the euro here. I will say, hours and hours of sleet may be interesting 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Euro looks as cold as Ukie for Wed nite - Thur