Very persistent signal for moderate snow and ice impact between "Wed night" and "Thur night" this week

[Damage In Tolland]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I mean, it has. This 2/23 event is already quite a bit south from what it was 2-3 days ago. But we’re fighting other variables too. The lead 2/21 wave isn’t the only thing affecting this. 

It’s the SE ridge. Always under modeled until about about 48 hours 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The dominating forces are the PV,  vs   the -PNA/La Nina circulation mode

Those two have situated ( in the models) a battle ground from Lakes through New England. 

That's why for the very strong consistency for actually getting an event done - those are largely/physically unmovable compared to the smaller disturbances contained. You know... one school says, you should be grateful and end it there.  But no... now that any snow at all enters the discussion, it's hand throwing unfair?   wow  

But beyond that, the gradients are narrowly defined, so much so that mere 'giga' motions in the runs ... less the 50 mi of tolerance even, may dictate if your town gets 5.5" of snow with a crust, or just 1/2" of snow then IP/ glaze ... or less.  It just is what it is. 

Reiterating.. this still looks to me like RUT-PWM is the snow axis.  That may get adjusted, but I haven't seen any reason/evidence yet...  S of there, it's a gradient to including more IP and ZR to eventually cold rainy teared posters.

My question at hour 60 is the low level cold to be eroded if this ticks north So that the sleet / frz rain part sort of becomes irrelevant into Merrimack valley or is the low level cold tuck to Nashua area high probability regardless 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well, I know when I was discussing typical SWFE north trends, I meant aloft in the mid levels.....I've always gotten why the surface can stay colder. Looks like this is a typical SWFE where it matters in terms of snowfall...the mid levels.

Figured that. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

okay, .. that may have been a conversation regarding aloft - ... honestly, I outlined the snow potential as being along a RUT-PWM line in the opener...  That may get dinged by mid levels, it may not... but since snow wasn't really the emphasis down our way, I'm really more interested in testing the vision for IP and ICE ... Snow probably heralds this thing in, either way...it's a matter of timing transition.

I admit that I posted following banter, regarding this having S potential still... but at 72 to 90 hours, the models are likely also nearing end point of that. 

I thought you were talking about snow down to at least  rt 2 and maybe the pike, yesterday .

[ORH_wxman]

Icon actually came in a decent tick colder. Has a nasty cold tuck over eastern areas too…temps crashing into 20s. That’s prob the top hazard in SNE…flash freeze potential for the areas that go from a quick burst to snow to IP to cold 34-35F rain but then it quickly falls to 27F with little notice. 
 

Still a possibility this ends up as mostly a sleet bomb too after an inch or two of snow. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Icon actually came in a decent tick colder. Has a nasty cold tuck over eastern areas too…temps crashing into 20s. That’s prob the top hazard in SNE…flash freeze potential for the areas that go from a quick burst to snow to IP to cold 34-35F rain but then it quickly falls to 27F with little notice. 
 

Still a possibility this ends up as mostly a sleet bomb too after an inch or two of snow. 

I honestly don't care much....at this point, I'm not going to melt over missing out on 4".

[STILL N OF PIKE]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I know when I was discussing typical SWFE north trends, I meant aloft in the mid levels.....I've always gotten why the surface can stay colder. Looks like this is a typical SWFE where it matters in terms of snowfall...the mid levels.

Figured that. 

On nam , the ticks north are taking the mid level cold and low level cold with It as the cold tuck has modified about 6-8 F for South and central NH with the mid levels warming Over last 2 cycles . I’m not sold this is a trend yet .

[George001]

It’s coming north, in these events a few days out if you are on the southern edge of the snow axis, you likely aren’t getting much snow. For these SWFE events you want to be north enough to have a good 100 miles of wiggle room at this stage of tracking, not 10-20 miles.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

On nam , the ticks north are taking the mid level cold and low level cold with It as the cold tuck has modified about 6-8 for South and central NH with the mid levels warming Over last 2 cycles . I’m not sold this is a trend yet .

I know I trust the NAM most in these situations.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know I trust the NAM most in these situations.

I trust the ICON most 

[Modfan2]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Icon actually came in a decent tick colder. Has a nasty cold tuck over eastern areas too…temps crashing into 20s. That’s prob the top hazard in SNE…flash freeze potential for the areas that go from a quick burst to snow to IP to cold 34-35F rain but then it quickly falls to 27F with little notice. 
 

Still a possibility this ends up as mostly a sleet bomb too after an inch or two of snow. 

It’s been consistent with a back door like cold tuck in Emass

[ORH_wxman]

GFS is coming in colder now too. So it doesn’t seem like the 06z runs were necessarily a start of a consistent trend. Lot of wobbling going on really if you look at the past 4-5 cycles. 

[ORH_wxman]

A few inches of snow here turns into an absolute paint peeler on the GFS. It’s cold in the low levels. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Our best bet for a quicky along 84 may be tomorrow morning. Grab it and enjoy. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

I’ve been pretty much sold on a sleet fest here for a few days.  

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

It’s been consistent with a back door like cold tuck in Emass

The thing that makes it somewhat “dangerous” is the cold tuck accelerates right before that 2nd pulse of precip comes in on Thursday night. So if some areas had warmed up to mid 30s or something like that after the initial snow/sleet, a lot of people will think the worst is over but then all of the sudden it dumps back down to 28 and the next wave of precip is coming in. That’s how it could be especially nasty. GFS actually shows this too at 12z. 

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, TalcottWx said:

I'm not even sure what I'm looking at in terms of a run to run difference there on the Nam. How does it jump like that run to run. Skeptical. Especially this close to tuesday

Because it's the NAM... and behaving like its typical self However once in a while it does sniff something out, so if this stripe stabilizes maybe someone is surprised tomorrow

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, UnitedWx said:

Because it's the NAM... and behaving like its typical self However once in a while it does sniff something out, so if this stripe stabilizes maybe someone is surprised tomorrow

Other guidance has it at 12z so far, just not nearly as robust as the NAM. But GFS has a little stripe too of 1-2”. Something to watch anyway. 

[powderfreak]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is coming in colder now too. So it doesn’t seem like the 06z runs were necessarily a start of a consistent trend. Lot of wobbling going on really if you look at the past 4-5 cycles. 

The forum may have overreacted a bit at 6z?  Shocking.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Some may have overreacted a bit at 6z?  Shocking.

As usual…

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The forum may have overreacted a bit at 6z?  Shocking.

Easy to say when you'll be knee deep in powder. But I get it.

[CoastalWx]

Definitely a paint peeler look even around here.

[mahk_webstah]

22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Our best bet for a quicky along 84 may be tomorrow morning. Grab it and enjoy. 

send pics  

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Easy to say when you'll be knee deep in powder. But I get it.

This winter has done a number on folks, I get that too.  But ironically it seems the ones that keep saying they are completely done with winter, find a way to melt each time.   Then again it’s like sports fans… can say however many times they aren’t following the team anymore but then go ballistic at every blown game, missed shot, etc.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Easy to say when you'll be knee deep in powder. But I get it.

Ya, he knows all about suffering thru a 8” winter . 
 

Im not surprised the gfs stayed cold , seemed awfully early for any trend to start unless the end game was gonna be frz rain to Stowe 

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya, he knows all about suffering thru a 8” winter . 
 

Im not surprised the gfs stayed cold , seemed awfully early for any trend to start unless the end game was gonna be frz rain to Stowe 

Agree. Holding steady for now on the guidance generally. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

My question at hour 60 is the low level cold to be eroded if this ticks north So that the sleet / frz rain part sort of becomes irrelevant into Merrimack valley or is the low level cold tuck to Nashua area high probability regardless 

Good question... 

Models have improved over the years with low level/BL resolution - to which 'tuck' handling is pretty much entirely within 200 mb of the surface. 

It's still more likely that even these days, the models are really better at seeing the 900- 925 mb vectors moving cold dense air;  From there, its shorter error to the surface because cold always goes under warm.  ...which is sufficient for assuming the BD type responses under the 925 level, in the model depiction.  But the resolution doesn't really allow an absolute diagnosis of how the fluid mechanics will interact with the surface to say, 1000 meters over the tree tops.  Tumbling 'Ekman' layer problem..

blah blah headache later ...  once the tuck mechanics get going, the models will be iffy on its strength and termination points because of that 'fuzzy' assessment underneath the 925 mb forcing layer. 

From that, my guess is if the tuck is actively moving flags and numbing knuckles, it'll go farther S-W and fill in the regions E of the elevation stripes and then crest over ORH ...

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This winter has done a number on folks, I get that too.  But ironically it seems the ones that keep saying they are completely done with winter, find a way to melt each time.   Then again it’s like sports fans… can say however many times they aren’t following the team anymore but then go ballistic at every blown game, missed shot, etc.

Checked out but left some bags behind?

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This winter has done a number on folks, I get that too.  But ironically it seems the ones that keep saying they are completely done with winter, find a way to melt each time.   Then again it’s like sports fans… can say however many times they aren’t following the team anymore but then go ballistic at every blown game, missed shot, etc.

Well my reaction and others from the 6z run was more about seeing the inevitable ticks north that happen with these 99.5% of the time. I don't think it was an overreaction since all guidance had this. And one 12z GFS run won't really change my mind lol. 

[Modfan2]

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Easy to say when you'll be knee deep in powder. But I get it.

Exactly!