Very persistent signal for moderate snow and ice impact between "Wed night" and "Thur night" this week

[weathafella]

10 minutes ago, George001 said:

It will come north. 

Eventually.  But how many ticks south if any beforehand?  Last night's depiction is pretty classic SWFE with good antecedent and cold tuck.  

[SnoSki14]

51 minutes ago, 512high said:

What a temp difference down to NY/NJ area,

What a fun rollercoaster that would be. 30s on Wednesday to low 70s Thursday and back to the 20s on Friday. 

[Allsnow]

[Damage In Tolland]

Nice Ice

[mreaves]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nice Ice

 

[Allsnow]

Boston probably ends up a bit with stronger confluence but this Looks like a repeat of the end of January with the snows for @dendrite

[ma blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nice Ice

meh enough to look cool but not enough for damage 

[Typhoon Tip]

47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. ICON tossed far for those 60s in CT. Pretty big outlier compared to other guidance which mainly keeps that warm sector down in central NJ and southward. 

ha... oh man. The icon -

yeah, iconic symbol of how NOT to formulate an atmospheric model.  Sorry to throw it under the bus and nothing intended toward the Germans but .....  no, don't do that.

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

meh enough to look cool but not enough for damage 

Enough to damage your bones falling on it though.....

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

meh enough to look cool but not enough for damage 

yeah,... this is a moderate impact event, overall?  I wouldn't expect more, just in general.  Snow...   In fact, maybe less where icing.  Typically 2/5ths of an inch starts the timbre sound off, and weakly hung utility points ... really you need 1/2", which I believe is the warning criteria for ice.

I don't see this happening much beyond that scale. 

The cold is likely - I see it ...-  to be really compactly compressed against where it just ends up 33F... such that there ice region is very narrow. Also, it's unclear if the lift mechanism hangs over the icing layer, or if it peels N and leaves that region with pixie dust and freezing drizzle making what rimes sort of 'glow' pail.  

Overall, I suspect this is 6-10" of snow where ever is getting charmed, and 2/5ths icing in a narrow band S ... leverage in some IP in between.

We may have furthering trouble a few short days later with a more index-scaled signal.

[ma blizzard]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Enough to damage your bones falling on it though.....

this is true, my mom broke her wrist a couple winters ago in a similar situation .. 

but personally, I think I got about 30 years before I gotta worry about it  

[Typhoon Tip]

Having said that ...I do suspect south corrections may overwhelm any attempts to bump back N - but wouldn't totally rule out a run or two setting off panic tones... LOL.   This doesn't appear to be a situation that would wholesale end up back N to me.  But we'll see

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Having said that ...I do suspect south corrections may overwhelm any attempts to bump back N - but wouldn't totally rule out a run or two setting off panic tones... LOL.   This doesn't appear to be a situation that would wholesale end up back N to me.  But we'll see

Hope you're right...at this juncture, I would rather need to adjust colder, than warmer...that's why I was tame on first call....especially given the mood in the room lol

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hope you're right...at this juncture, I would rather need to adjust colder, than warmer...that's why I was tame on first call....especially given the mood in the room lol

You may be the winner in SNE for once. 

[dryslot]

46 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Boston probably ends up a bit with stronger confluence but this Looks like a repeat of the end of January with the snows for @dendrite

It does look like another 7-10 day run.

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

That looks good

[powderfreak]

GEFS mean actually went north from the 6z mean for snowfall.  Meanwhile the EPS ticked ever so slightly south at 12z from 6z.  

[Cold Miser]

Meh. 

Good luck to the northern folks again. For the below the CT/ Mass border people, only fools, clowns, and suckers, have continued to follow this charade of a "winter".

[DavisStraight]

5 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Meh. 

Good luck to the northern folks again. For the below the CT/ Mass border people, only fools, clowns, and suckers, have continued to follow this charade of a "winter".

Yeah, not sure what we're going to get down where we are, snow, sleet, some ice, rain? all of the above

[ineedsnow]

Leaving Florida Tuesday afternoon going to be back by Wednesday night now for the fun

[qg_omega]

32 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

GEFS mean actually went north from the 6z mean for snowfall.  Meanwhile the EPS ticked ever so slightly south at 12z from 6z.  

You have Euro OP Kuchera?

[Chris12WX]

This feels like one of those events where we get fooled into thinking the cold air will hold off the warmth aloft long enough to pick up 4-5” here. But when the event arrives it’s pinging 45 minutes after precipitation starts. And the posts or “Bust!” arrive quickly.

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, Chris12WX said:

This feels like one of those events where we get fooled into thinking the cold air will hold off the warmth aloft long enough to pick up 4-5” here. But when the event arrives it’s pinging 45 minutes after precipitation starts. And the posts or “Bust!” arrive quickly.

The warm tongue is always closer than it appears 

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

You have Euro OP Kuchera?

Everyone does on COD

[rcostell]

Thanks Tip. No. would not be asking for Philly in this subform...no way that happens. Was more curious if you thought cold push would continue to ooze south- meaning better chances for warning snow just west of "Powderfreak land".   

[STILL N OF PIKE]

18 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The warm tongue is always closer than it appears 

Especially after a brew or two when nite falls in Hubbardston?

[TalcottWx]

Warm tongue baby

[Ginx snewx]

Don't sleep on Tuesday night

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Don't sleep on Tuesday night

I haven't been sleeping much any might these days, so no problem

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Cold Miser said:

Meh. 

Good luck to the northern folks again. For the below the CT/ Mass border people, only fools, clowns, and suckers, have continued to follow this charade of a "winter".

Call me a fool call me a clown call me a sucker but it's ain't over m'fer