Very persistent signal for moderate snow and ice impact between "Wed night" and "Thur night" this week

[Typhoon Tip]

At this range and considering the recency/complexion of the various persistence' in the guidance ( cross analysis, too), the the risk associated with this somewhat protracted event is situated along I-90 in NYS through roughly RUT-PWM for snow, where astride this region along the south by some 200 miles ( give or take) there's likely to be a gradient of IP, ICE, then cold rain. 

Snow amounts look to be 6-8" with more in favored elevations/cold ratio loading ...and/or impossible to predetermine meso banding - which I feel there may be some in this latter aspect. This is an overrunning scenario, with a powerful left exit/lateral to entrance jet structure associated with the main short wave mechanics...torpedoing by N of an intensely defined low level polar boundary. That boundary is likely to be very intense at elevation, up the warm boundary slope, where it is then encounters an evacuating circumstance. This will enhance lift around (likely...) some frontogenic structures/very narrow.    I wouldn't venture a precise idea on the width of the snowing region of this total event, but would suggest it is not spread out all over hell's creation in size.

IP vs ICE and where?  

Firstly, a cold thrust/"tuck" showed up yesterday at finite analysis of a lot of guidance ( Thurs afternoon...).  That is/was built into our climate, and given the general synopsis as it has existed in the guidance for days ( really...), the possibility is/was assumed in this particular scenario.  The models outright showed that happening and still are.

There is an antecedent building +PP over western QUE that's put there by PV confluent against the southern ridge wall  - that is a large scale scaffolding that is physically connected(able) to the smaller scales. These finite lower tropospheric features in the guidance are thus less likely merely noise, given that totality.   Trying to establish some confidence in that actually taking place, because it matters greatly on who gets affected by IP vs ICE vs cold rain across the region of southern NYS tier, to S of ~ rt 2 along N Mass.  

I personally believe these above cold implications are too overwhelming to ignore - and frankly...I would not bother down playing them in this case, unless the short term on this corrects abundantly N.  I don't believe this latter adjustment is very likey, however, ...because this overall 'needle thread' longitudinal event is being "locked" into a position guided by the PV press against the -PNA/La Nina persistent/circulation base state.  I suspect this is why we are seeing such a persistent signal for this overall event, it's got the deterministic advantage of competing titanic forces, which by virtue of their size ...command a lot of physical proxy on the flow set...etc.  

Basically it's a higher confidence total event.  The details will be ironed out during the next 4 or so days.. .but I feel pretty confident this needs its separate evaluation window at this time. 

Special considerations ... 

- QPF may be a bit of a challenge particularly S of the snow transition to IP axis.   The excessively thermally compressed overall nature of this in the N-S, combined with the idea that 'lift' may in fact move off of that mix axis, means that precipitation could ( not saying it will...) end up shredding and become more intermittent in nature from lower growth. In fact, ....IP could relax to pixie dust between rt 2 and the Pike, should the suspected cold acceleration arrive under a ceiling where the lift has moved off.    This is just a possibility...  Lots of potential for cold wedging here, with equally 700 mb push over top may set up more prolific fall rates in the snow growth areas of the soundings in Central NE axis.

- the trailing 'main low pressure' may offer a burst of heaving returns as the system is exiting.   

 

[WxWatcher007]

Wasn’t paying any attention but now I’m casually watching. Certainly thread worthy. Could be an impactful mixed precipitation event here in northern CT. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Wasn’t paying any attention but now I’m casually watching. Certainly thread worthy. Could be an impactful mixed precipitation event here in northern CT. 

For now I'd say that is higher ice to IP ratio/result ... from there up to the Pike and down the Pike length... but tuck getting under way mid day Thursday - if it is even identifiable at that time, probably makes the eastern end of the Pike more IP/pixie dusty. 

[rcostell]

How much for Philly? (kidding). Tip- Interested in your thoughts on possibilty of continued cold "press"  vs  the omnipresent southeast ridge.  Seems like these forces are currently depicted as deadlocked?  Thanks, trying to learn... as spend a lot of time just west (eastern ADK's) of BTV. 

[CoastalWx]

Think the gfs may be a touch cooler again.

[CoastalWx]

Seems like gfs might not be handling the tuck as well. 

[weathafella]

GFS is definitely colder.  As I statedin the main thread, good bye BOS futility on GFS.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Gfs has wintery weather across S SNE this run for Thursday 

[Damage In Tolland]

[wx2fish]

Gfs soundings almost wedge in the dgz with it tickling 1c above. Would be alot of pixie flakes mixed for those sleeting.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Sleet is my least favorite form of winter weather behind snow and ice but I’ll take anything over rain .

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Sleet is my least favorite form of winter weather behind snow and ice but I’ll take anything over rain .

Give me sleet any time over ice.   

[weathafella]

Yeah anything but ice.  Rain is preferred over zr.   I like not being a prisoner in my house and I really enjoy power.

[8611Blizz]

The thing not being talked about much is the duration. The gfs shows about 28 hours of precip on the 23/24 for this area.

A kitchen sink of sleet snow frz. A classic shit storm.

[weathafella]

I just looked at the soundings on GFS.  Just for BOS it's snow to sleet eventually back to snow.

[powderfreak]

Wild gradient on the ICON.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Why are some models showing the tuck arriving faster/ more pronounced in se Mass than virtually all of CT and other areas west? 
 

Closer to the cold drain?

[Spanks45]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Wild gradient on the ICON.

I have no use or need for some sleet/frz drizzle or 33 degree rain....I prefer those 70s up here, mid 60s would be just fine as well. Icon is the only one bringing those warm temps into the SW portions of SNE, so it probably is wrong. GFS is 30-34 here around the same time period. Not even close for 100 hrs out

[512high]

17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Wild gradient on the ICON.

What a temp difference down to NY/NJ area,

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

First Call for Thursday.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/02/messy-thursday-on-tap-first-call.html

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Wild gradient on the ICON.

Wow

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Wow

I know I’ve been bearish to say the least about winter down here, but we toss that into the Atlantic. Much much colder down here in CT for this one IMO.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Only thing I would add is it may have a bit more of a Wnw/ese gradient with the cold tuck 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Only thing I would add is it may have a bit more of a Wnw/ese gradient with the cold tuck 

That is in the lower levels and has little impact on snowfall.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, rcostell said:

How much for Philly? (kidding). Tip- Interested in your thoughts on possibilty of continued cold "press"  vs  the omnipresent southeast ridge.  Seems like these forces are currently depicted as deadlocked?  Thanks, trying to learn... as spend a lot of time just west (eastern ADK's) of BTV. 

I'm not sure exactly what you're asking?   ...is Philly in contention for this..??  If so, no ... this is a gradient contingent scenario, compressed along a relatively narrow corridor .... like I said, 'probably' within 150 miles N/S of roughly I-90/Mohawk Trail/SNE/CNE/NNE

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Why are some models showing the tuck arriving faster/ more pronounced in se Mass than virtually all of CT and other areas west? 
 

Closer to the cold drain?

It funnels down along the coastal plain on a NE wind to the right of the ORH hills...like a back door front.

[wx2fish]

Euro looks a little colder than 0z 

[ORH_wxman]

Euro came In a tick colder. 

[George001]

It will come north. 

[ORH_wxman]

29 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I know I’ve been bearish to say the least about winter down here, but we toss that into the Atlantic. Much much colder down here in CT for this one IMO.

Yep. ICON tossed far for those 60s in CT. Pretty big outlier compared to other guidance which mainly keeps that warm sector down in central NJ and southward.