2023 Atlantic Hurricane season

[Normandy]

95L looks very classifiable to me. Small but very well defined circulation with persistent convection.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I think it is the wave just past 0 degrees the models like a lot more than 95L.

[Boston Bulldog]

Don's structure has rebounded once again this AM

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Don's structure has rebounded once again this AM

I just checked all 4 6Z hurricane models. All strengthen to a peak near 6Z tomorrow/DMAX. All 4 have minimal H force winds somewhere between 0Z and 6Z.

[Normandy]

Not sure why Don hasn’t been upgraded yet. I get it’s not a threat to land but a hurricane is a hurricane 

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Not sure why Don hasn’t been upgraded yet. I get it’s not a threat to land but a hurricane is a hurricane 

 Not only that, but the 12Z models don't have Don reach peak strength for still another 12 hours (DMAX):

-HWRF has it drop from 995 mb at 18Z to 988 mb at 6Z along with an increase from 70 knots at 18Z to 95 knot winds tonight
-HMON rises from 80 to 90 knots
-HAFS A rises from 65 to 95 knts 
-HAFS B rises from 70 to 95 knots

 So, the 4 Hurr models already have him cat 1 and strengthen him to strong cat 2!

[NorthHillsWx]

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Not only that, but the 12Z models don't have Don reach peak strength for still another 12 hours (DMAX):

-HWRF has it drop from 995 mb at 18Z to 988 mb at 6Z along with an increase from 70 knots at 18Z to 95 knot winds tonight
-HMON rises from 80 to 90 knots
-HAFS A rises from 65 to 95 knts 
-HAFS B rises from 70 to 95 knots

 So, the 4 Hurr models already have him cat 1 and strengthen him to strong cat 2!

Agree- this looks to make hurricane status. Very impressive burst thanks to the Gulf Stream. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

27 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

GFS and Euro show  nothing  now as we  head  into August. Season needs to start really  soon for  10/5 or  9/4 to verify.

You haven't seen the GFS and Euro ensembles, or the op Euro.  I agree 10 hurricanes seems high to me, Euro weeklies don't look very active into early September (although the ACE product is normal to somewhat above normal) but it isn't dead heading into August.  Not a slam dunk, only a few GFS ensemble members see it but the Euro system is a big deal if it is just N of the Greater Antilles instead of through it.  That system, if it forms, probably fishes, but ten days out, who knows?

[GaWx]

Don's a cane officially!

[WxWatcher007]

Started a thread for Don. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

El Nino looks weak in the subsurface

https://ibb.co/qsv4Ytm

There is a correlation with -50 to -250m, 180W to 140W, between many "nowtime events", I've found stronger than surface SSTs. If you look at the central-subsurface, it's not even an El Nino right now. It will be interesting to see if El Nino effects don't happen so much this season. 

[GaWx]

 0Z GEFS for the AEW about to move offshore looks like the most active run yet with 10 Hs out of 31 members by my count!

[jconsor]

Need to watch for possible development near the SE US coast late this week into this weekend.
 

 

[ldub23]

39 minutes ago, jconsor said:

Need to watch for possible development near the SE US coast late this week into this weekend.
 

 

If it  does develop it will correspond to a  brief  change  in the  pattern with the rain stopping for  a  few days. 

[jconsor]

Thread about the next potential MDR/central Atlantic system. Of course it's very early and the system isn't expected to form for another 5-7 days, but I though it's worth discussing potential track. I'm not so sure this will form as early as ensembles imply. Given the indications of a weakening E US trough/building W Atl ridge first week of Aug, this could work against a clean recurve out to sea.

[ldub23]

12 minutes ago, jconsor said:

Thread about the next potential MDR/central Atlantic system. Of course it's very early and the system isn't expected to form for another 5-7 days, but I though it's worth discussing potential track. I'm not so sure this will form as early as ensembles imply. Given the indications of a weakening E US trough/building W Atl ridge first week of Aug, this could work against a clean recurve out to sea.

The  pattern does appear to be  changing. Hopefully  it  lasts thru OCT. 

[jconsor]

Be careful using the CFS for assessing how favorable/unfavorable the Atlantic will be for tropical activity in the subseasonal to seasonal timeframe (2 weeks to several months out).  Its recent performance has been awful.

Copernicus multi-model ensemble and ECMWF weeklies are more reliable tools.
 

 

[GaWx]

 We have a new lemon in the far E MDR. The most likely scenario should it even become a TC would be for a recurve well east of the US E coast, but that's far from certain this far out:

3. Eastern Atlantic:
A tropical wave is located south of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Some 
development of this system is possible later this week and into the 
weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward over the 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

[ldub23]

JB says  it again, brings  up 1954 and we all know how that  year was for the east  coast. In other tweets he remains  confident  of east  coast threats. Im pretty sure he  meant to type  3 or  more days  of  90+

 

 

[Floydbuster]

I'd watch the lemon in the East Atlantic closely as it progresses. It's been a while since a Bonnie 1998-type track occurred in August.

[jconsor]

Don't sleep on 95L.  It looks sheared and convectively anemic at the present time, but could gain renewed energy in the W. Caribbean.
 

 

[ldub23]

81% certain the east atl dist will develop into a  cane

[GaWx]

^rainstorm trolling 101 has worked well for two decades (this is part of the playbook) but regardless IF it actually develops into a TD, I wouldn't argue against very good chance it would then get to H status with MH quite possible. An impressive 17 of 31 0Z GEFS members, by far the highest yet, had a cane.

 

[jconsor]

A thread about the East Atlantic system.  I think the it has a decent chance for development (I would say 50-60% within 7 days).  Don't be fooled by recency bias just because 95L encounted hostile conditions and didn't develop. The atmospheric state has changed substantially in a way that favors development more for this wave than it did for 95L.
 

 

[GaWx]

 The 12Z CMC is by far its strongest run yet with an H to the E of Bermuda. This would make 2 storms with a July TCG, which would make it above average for all seasons.  

 I expect a TWO later today and possibly as early as the one soon to be released to be upgraded from lemon to orange for the 7 day for this.

 If this month reaches two storms, it would tie it with 1979, 1887, and 1864 for the 2nd highest # of July storms during the 54 El Niño seasons since 1851 either present or coming later that season. Only 1997 would be more active with its three storms that formed in July.

[ldub23]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

^rainstorm trolling 101 has worked well for two decades (this is part of the playbook) but regardless IF it actually develops into a TD, I wouldn't argue against very good chance it would then get to H status with MH quite possible. An impressive 17 of 31 0Z GEFS members, by far the highest yet, had a cane.

 

My forecast  method  is a simple  one. Since it  is  now forecast to recurve east  of  bermuda and amount to nothing development  is a  lock.

[GaWx]

23 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

My forecast  method  is a simple  one. Since it  is  now forecast to recurve east  of  bermuda and amount to nothing development  is a  lock.

 Troughs near the E coast during hurricane season appear to be more favored during El Niño than non-El Nino seasons. Cape Verde/E MDR storms, which don't hit the US most of the time, hit less often during El Niño vs other seasons per looking at many decades of tracks. But if there are enough of them, one or more may slip in based on averages due to randomness. If they delay development, that ups those chances.

[Floydbuster]

Nothing will ever beat the slightly long-range GFS showing a green smudge over the Abaco Islands for what turned out to be a 185 mph Category 5 historic Hurricane Dorian.

[Kevin Reilly]

6 hours ago, jconsor said:

A thread about the East Atlantic system.  I think the it has a decent chance for development (I would say 50-60% within 7 days).  Don't be fooled by recency bias just because 95L encounted hostile conditions and didn't develop. The atmospheric state has changed substantially in a way that favors development more for this wave than it did for 95L.
 

 

I would say that this system will stay away from the East Coast looks to be quite protected in the current pattern and the pattern that is projected to come to the East Coast.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

As long as fronts can stall and decay E of Florida, ECUSA is not 100% safe.  No model support for today's Bahamas blob, but it probably isn't the last Bahamas blob of the year.

 

  Even an MDR system could miss the trough. Last two weeks of Euro weeklies have a >5% TC chance along ECUSA.