ldub23 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 The gfs cane is almost certainly a phantom. This isnt a pattern that favors anything other than slop in the west carib. LC nailed it last year and will be right this year. 5/1 seems about right though he hinted at lowering his numbers. For anything interesting to form in the west carib in late sept/oct you need a strong high centered over the NW ATL. I think given the current pattern of front after front blasting the NE that is highly unlikely. If there is a season it will be a 1 storm season. Yea, i can already read the replies about having 4 storms already. Where they formed and where they died says dead season to me. Euro at 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 And gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 7 hours ago, ldub23 said: The gfs cane is almost certainly a phantom. This isnt a pattern that favors anything other than slop in the west carib. LC nailed it last year and will be right this year. 5/1 seems about right though he hinted at lowering his numbers. For anything interesting to form in the west carib in late sept/oct you need a strong high centered over the NW ATL. I think given the current pattern of front after front blasting the NE that is highly unlikely. If there is a season it will be a 1 storm season. Yea, i can already read the replies about having 4 storms already. Where they formed and where they died says dead season to me. Euro at 240 Your trolling will be studied in the history books for years to come 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 12 hours ago, MattPetrulli said: Your trolling will be studied in the history books for years to come Yep, rainstorm (under various names and at several boards) has had it down to a science for over two decades and is someone trolls look up to and try to emulate. If I were one, I'd probably do the same. Meanwhile, Don quietly became a TS for the first time early this morning. There's a small chance it could eventually become the first H of the season, perhaps Thu or Fri. It is forecasted in the latest by NHC to peak at 45 knots/50 mph, but that's lower than the model consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 11 hours ago, MattPetrulli said: Your trolling will be studied in the history books for years to come The season needs to get started real soon because peak season is going to be rocked with very unfavorable conditions. CSU says 9/4 and right now we are 0/0. One year we will have high pressure locked over the NW ATL and there wont be an east coast mega trof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 The Secretariat of trolls strikes again. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 2 hours ago, ldub23 said: The season needs to get started real soon because peak season is going to be rocked with very unfavorable conditions. CSU says 9/4 and right now we are 0/0. One year we will have high pressure locked over the NW ATL and there wont be an east coast mega trof. The negativity about every season (from the point of view of someone wanting hurricanes and US impacts) you display is a defensive mechanism. The sense I get. You can't be disappointed if you always expect 'the worst' and you hope you can somehow nudge the weather gods into a major Mid Atlantic landfall by constantly saying it won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 The typically tropical genesis happy GFS says what MDR wave of concern on the 12Z run? It does nothing with it and says probably no new NS the rest of the month. OTOH, this unreliable model at 12Z does about the most with Don yet for this Friday, when it deepens it to a strong TS (994 mb). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 Got a lemon. The disturbance isn't expected to develop until within the central MDR or on approach to the islands if it can hold together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 3 hours ago, Windspeed said: Got a lemon. The disturbance isn't expected to develop until within the central MDR or on approach to the islands if it can hold together. About 15 of the 0Z Euro ensemble members showed a TC in/near the Caribbean in a week, but only 1 below 1000 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 5 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: About 15 of the 0Z Euro ensemble members showed a TC in/near the Caribbean in a week, but only 1 below 1000 mb. The Euro ens keeps going back and forth from fairly inactive to moderately active. The 12Z run is back to 5H, which is what yesterday's 12Z had. Meanwhile, TS Don is now predicted to peak at 50 knots/60 mph during 24-48 hours on the new NHC track due to better organization. That implies a slightly increased chance for it to reach H status. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 TWC updated their numbers to 10/5. Rather bullish. Its LC vs the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 It’s still hard for me to be that bullish. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 On 7/19/2023 at 11:46 AM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: About 15 of the 0Z Euro ensemble members showed a TC in/near the Caribbean in a week, but only 1 below 1000 mb. 1. The 12Z GEFS is by a good margin the most active GEFS with this in the last two days of runs with ~3 H. 2. ASCAT/visible imagery suggests a LLC near 11N, 39W, but the NHC is focusing on an area near 11N, 30W: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 12 minutes ago, GaWx said: 1. The 12Z GEFS is by a good margin the most active GEFS with this in the last two days of runs with ~3 H. 2. ASCAT/visible imagery suggests a LLC near 11N, 39W, but the NHC is focusing on an area near 11N, 30W: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 The ensembles at hour zero seems to show the multiple disturbances. CIMSS TPW looks a bit better for the 39W wave than the NHC wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 I just don’t understand where they’re getting the numbers from other than warm water. 2020 made sense to me, but this doesn’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 The Caribbean looks too sheared if the MDR disturbance is driven that far west. It needs to develop and gain some latitude prior to the islands otherwise. A track through or just north of the northern Leewards gives it a better shot. I'm just not expecting much here. Probably another week or two until conditions can temporarily improve for something more serious. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Edit to add- I just noticed 95L. Its the MDR lemon. FWIW, SHIPS brings it to a 101 knot Cat 3 in a week. I doubt that. Original post below, Euro weeklies suggesting TWC 20 storms isn't likely. The Euro weeklies don't seem to support The Weather Channels 20 named storms, at least not into early September. They also seem to suggest the next two weeks will actually be the best chance of much. They are picking up on the lemon that Euro ensembles are showing, and maybe something behind it, and then I don't see anything suggesting TC activity after. The Caribbean looks dead, I assume a product of a trough near the East Coast and El Nino shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 00z GFS brings the lemon across the islands and if circulation can hold together brings it into the eastern Gulf. Still about 5 days out from the Antilles but it may just get to TS status. There seems to be another one after that in the pipeline that may have a better atmosphere to work with if the initial lemon kind of fades around DR/ Haiti/ PR region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Overnight modeling (to various degrees) has really jumped on the idea of developing 95L. On satellite with the most recent burst of overnight convection you can really start to see a bit of mid level rotation within the convective envelope. This might be a case where track means everything. There is quite a lot of wind shear ahead of the system but a track near the northern islands/Hispaniola might land the system in slightly better conditions for development the given current look of the basin. I am shocked to see the intensity guidance so bullish at the moment, given the moderate to high shear environment with significant dry air around the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 95L looks pretty solid right now. Agree with Windspeed that we’re probably looking at early August-ish for more conducive conditions but if that convection can persist for 95L it could be able to hold the drier air surrounding it at bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Don's structure is likely peaking right now. These mid-latitude TCs always seem to be able to pull little surprises if they can detach from westerly flow and meander over marginal waters 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Boston Bulldog said: Don's structure is likely peaking right now. These mid-latitude TCs always seem to be able to pull little surprises if they can detach from westerly flow and meander over marginal waters I don't at all believe that Don is still only at 45 knots.This will likely be strengthened during post storm reviews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 The pre-advisory ASCAT pass missing is a bit of a disappointment. Given the structure, a 60 mph designation seems reasonable. This is just personal conjecture so take it with a grain of salt, but its possible that the Dvorak technique may not do as well in resolving TC structures and intensity in marginal regions where convection is harder to come by. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Cold upper tropospheric temps over Don allowing it to overachieve in sub 26° SSTs. Cooler SSTs due to its own upwelling and development out of a surface trough and sub-tropical cold pool airmass. Still, just enough thermal driven instability now at the surface layer to sustain its core. Don't know if it will reach hurricane intensity, but it does have an eyewall right now. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 2 hours ago, Windspeed said: Cold upper tropospheric temps over Don allowing it to overachieve in sub 26° SSTs. Cooler SSTs due to its own upwelling and development out of a surface trough and sub-tropical cold pool airmass. Still, just enough thermal driven instability now at the surface layer to sustain its core. Don't know if it will reach hurricane intensity, but it does have an eyewall right now. Definitely a well defined storm but I doubt the winds are over 50 kts. These upper latitude storms are known for having lower surface wind speeds (in relation to appearance) bc the lack of deep tropical convection and more stable environments surrounding them (due to cooler water) doesn’t pull sustained winds to the surface efficiently. There have been several donut storms recently in the upper Atlantic, always find them fascinating 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 23 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Definitely a well defined storm but I doubt the winds are over 50 kts. These upper latitude storms are known for having lower surface wind speeds (in relation to appearance) bc the lack of deep tropical convection and more stable environments surrounding them (due to cooler water) doesn’t pull sustained winds to the surface efficiently. There have been several donut storms recently in the upper Atlantic, always find them fascinating All four of the new hurricane model runs (12Z) now strengthen Don through DMAX of early Sunday morning. That's a full 36 hours from now. They're all stronger than recent runs and the HMON is the strongest run yet for it as of that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 05L DON 230721 1800 36.2N 47.0W ATL 50 998 This drop of 4 mb from 1002 to 998 is the first change in the pressure by the NHC since way back at 11PM EDT Wednesday night. It had been stuck at 1002 mb for 36 hours. Edit: He is approaching his own wake and will be crossing it tonight. I wonder if reduced SSTs from that will lead to weakening through tonight. Also, DMIN is approaching. Opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Don a bit stronger and now forecasted to reach 55 knots: SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.6N 47.5W ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES ------------ FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 36.6N 47.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 37.9N 48.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 40.0N 50.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 42.4N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 44.6N 48.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 24/0600Z 47.1N 45.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 24/1800Z 48.7N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown Edit: The 12Z models including hurricane models and Euro ens don't have Don peaking til near DMAX early Sun AM. But this NHC forecast has him peaking before that and then weakening early Sun AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Definitely a well defined storm but I doubt the winds are over 50 kts. These upper latitude storms are known for having lower surface wind speeds (in relation to appearance) bc the lack of deep tropical convection and more stable environments surrounding them (due to cooler water) doesn’t pull sustained winds to the surface efficiently. There have been several donut storms recently in the upper Atlantic, always find them fascinating It does seem like these mid-latitude systems are able to develop coherent vortexes and organized convective bands/eye features more easily than say a developing wave/TS in the MDR. Probably likely that this is a function of the Coriolis parameter increasing with latitude. Perhaps the presence of more baroclinically unstable profiles at higher latitudes as Windspeed alluded, combined with increased ease of achieving vortex coherency allows for these donut storms to form. So many examples over recent years, some quite impressive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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