2023 Atlantic Hurricane season

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

While it seems El Nino won't be quite as extreme as earlier thought, it should be moderate to strong.  I'm guessing that is more important than the AMO, and the forecast numbers drop some in the forecast update.

 

 

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

21 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

While it seems El Nino won't be quite as extreme as earlier thought, it should be moderate to strong.  I'm guessing that is more important than the AMO, and the forecast numbers drop some in the forecast update.

 

 

 

Dr. Phil is not backing off the active season. https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-07.pdf   

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Dr. Phil is not backing off the active season. https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-07.pdf   

Really didn’t expect to see that.

 

[yoda]

 

[jconsor]

While the tropical Atlantic will likely remain relatively quiet until at least the last third of the month, the overall atmospheric and oceanic pattern in the month tends to be strongly correlated to the level of activity during the rest of the season and can provide some very important clues to assess the reliability of seasonal guidance.

There has been consistency in the guidance on easterly upper-level wind anomalies prevailing much of Jul across much of the Caribbean and tropical central Atlantic, along with significant westerly anomalies at 850 mb in the MDR (as was forecast by the Copernicus multi-model ensemble - see Alex Boreham's excellent site here: https://cyclonicwx.com/models/c3s/atl/). If this verifies, it would be a strong indicator of an active season.
 

 

[Floydbuster]

CSU really thinks we're gonna have a burst of August/September activity that drives the numbers up high. It's amazing how fast some indicators have changed showing that we might actually have an active season.

[Windspeed]

CSU really thinks we're gonna have a burst of August/September activity that drives the numbers up high. It's amazing how fast some indicators have changed showing that we might actually have an active season.

I read the report thoroughly. Phil and his mates are banking on the strong +AMO and record MDR and EATL SSTs, and lower background pressures across the Atlantic Basin to counter a moderate to strong El Niño. He does note:

We note that there are no great analogs for the current and projected situation of a moderate to strong El Niño combined with a record warm Atlantic. The anomalous state of Atlantic SSTs is underscored by every statistical/dynamical scheme consistently predicting the warmest eastern/central North Atlantic on record. Most other years with a very warm Atlantic either had neutral ENSO or La Niña conditions. The analogs that we selected were generally characterized by El Niño conditions and a relatively warm Atlantic for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season (August–October). While 2005 was an ENSO neutral year, we included it is an analog since the Atlantic was very warm that year. We anticipate that the 2023 hurricane season will have activity slightly above the average of our six analog years. There is a large spread in Atlantic hurricane activity in the six analog years that we selected, highlighting the large uncertainty in the potential outcomes for the 2023 season.

..and

An analysis of a variety of different atmosphere and ocean measurements
(through June) which are known to have long-period statistical relationships with the upcoming season's Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, as well as output from dynamical models, indicate that 2023 will have above-average activity. The big question marks with this season's predictions revolve around the strength of El Niño and how anomalously warm the tropical and subtropical Atlantic is for the peak of the hurricane season. We stress again that there is greater-than-normal uncertainty associated with this outlook.

I really enjoy Phil's work, and he is among the best, but be cautious. This seasonal forecast has a higher bust potential than previous seasons. We're in somewhat unknown territory here with anomolous Atlantic basin warmth and favorable AMO versus moderate to strong El Niño. He is banking on Atlantic instability + lower low-level background pressures + weaker trades countering or offsetting an EPAC-induced zonal upper level flow versus diffluence across the Caribbean and WATL basin. That is presently not the case right now. He expects this transition into August, and that may very well be our window and burst of activity this year while the El Niño state is not yet at full strength. However, I would still be cautious. We do not fully know if the 400 to 200 hPa zonal flow will cooperate besides. CSU essentially forecasts that if both basins are warm, that flow should be more favorable than if AMO were negative and Atlantic anomolous warmth was absent. That's not bad reasoning, but it's a bit of a gamble, hence the higher uncertainty.

I'll just be blunt. If El Niño becomes strong by September, the Atlantic better have raged out and spit out some numbers and an intense hurricane or two prior to peak. Otherwise, the number of storms won't matter if they're a sheared mess. I think we'll have a much better idea of the statistical and dynamical suites' handle on this battle of zonal flow versus diffluence in a few more weeks. Therefore, CSU's August 3rd update is going to be a lot more important than this one. I still think the Atlantic will struggle during ASO overall. A window of activity will be there in August, but El Niño shuts that down by September. I also look for CSU's forecast numbers to come back down in a future update.

[ldub23]

7 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

CSU really thinks we're gonna have a burst of August/September activity that drives the numbers up high. It's amazing how fast some indicators have changed showing that we might actually have an active season.

I think they are  behind the curve. They should  have reduced  numbers. Conditions are horrid  now and arent  likely to get  better.

[NorthHillsWx]

Forecasting conditions to improve against a strengthening El Niño is a new one for me. I’m still thinking we see reduced activity and a BN season, regardless of water temps. Crazy to bank on August to produce a AN season in any year 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Dr. Phil replied to a Twitter question, defending the CSU forecast with 200 mb height and 200 mb wind maps.  Warm water in EATL has raised heights, shear E of 60W will be favorable if the pattern persists.  But the pattern suggests even higher than the normally high percentage of storms that recurve, and shear will be generally quite hostile W of 60W.  I'd think a decent number of NS and H, but low chance of US landfalls between steering and shear.

 

 

 

[GaWx]

 The new NMME for JAS has decreased precip rather significantly vs the prior run from Cuba through the Bahamas and the SE US/E GOM:

 

Prior run:

[ldub23]

If there  is a season at all it will be a  1 storm season like  last  year where  1 storm manages to get thru at  just the right  time.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Our last El Nino Atlantic Hurricane season. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Our last El Nino Atlantic Hurricane season. 

2015 season better analog.  Little W of 60W.  I hope we get some nice Cat 4s at least in the MDR before the recurve or shear.  Cool satellite loops.  LDub will finally have a season he predicted.

[ldub23]

I am starting to wonder why CSU upped  numbers. 4 canes and  1 major  seems about right.. SST'S are  the  least  important factor. It  could  be  100 degrees from 10-35N from africa to the se  coast and  if upper  levels are hostile it  means  nothing. And  of  course we  have the ever present east  coast trof. 

[GaWx]

7/9/23 updated tropical seasonal outlook from meteorologist Larry Cosgrove:

"Despite what you may have heard, the potential for serious tropical cyclone development is decreasing. Low-latitude westerlies in the Atlantic Basin have still not lifted out, and with each passing day the chance for an extended "window" of favorable heat ridge positioning decreases. Another factor that is influencing the lack of convective production outside of Africa (despite an active ITCZ) is tremendous amounts of Saharan  dust, concurrent with very low dewpoints and high temperatures. 

 Warm waters in the Major Development Region do not alter or break the wind patterns associated with extreme warmth of the 1.2 ENSO sector. At some point the giant ridge complex (which will reach its apex in the last week of July), will weaken and some easterlies will set up from western Africa. But we are running out of time for that synoptic event to happen! Because at some point in late August the flow signatures will reset to west/southwest, shearing thunderstorm tops apart. For now I will keep my forecast total of 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and one major cyclone intact. But do not be surprised if a revision is announced."

[bigtenfan]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

7/9/23 updated tropical seasonal outlook from meteorologist Larry Cosgrove:

"Despite what you may have heard, the potential for serious tropical cyclone development is decreasing. Low-latitude westerlies in the Atlantic Basin have still not lifted out, and with each passing day the chance for an extended "window" of favorable heat ridge positioning decreases. Another factor that is influencing the lack of convective production outside of Africa (despite an active ITCZ) is tremendous amounts of Saharan  dust, concurrent with very low dewpoints and high temperatures. 

 Warm waters in the Major Development Region do not alter or break the wind patterns associated with extreme warmth of the 1.2 ENSO sector. At some point the giant ridge complex (which will reach its apex in the last week of July), will weaken and some easterlies will set up from western Africa. But we are running out of time for that synoptic event to happen! Because at some point in late August the flow signatures will reset to west/southwest, shearing thunderstorm tops apart. For now I will keep my forecast total of 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and one major cyclone intact. But do not be surprised if a revision is announced."

As a S FL resident who is self insuring for wind damage I hope that he is right.

I have always had a lot of respect for LC. When i lived in Philadelphia  in the 1990s he was the first TV Met to sniff out the 30 inch Blizzard  of 1996 a full week in advance( with mid 1990s technology!)

[GaWx]

24 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

As a S FL resident who is self insuring for wind damage I hope that he is right.

I have always had a lot of respect for LC. When i lived in Philadelphia  in the 1990s he was the first TV Met to sniff out the 30 inch Blizzard  of 1996 a full week in advance( with mid 1990s technology!)

 Good luck to you! But even if he turns out to be "right", any one location can obviously still be hit very hard. For example, he didn't say that the one major hurricane that he's forecasting won't hit land as a hurricane, possibly even as a MH. Also, any of the other four other hurricanes he's forecasting could be quite rough somewhere  if they make landfall. So, always being prepared for the worst case is wise.

[bigtenfan]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Good luck to you! But even if he turns out to be "right", any one location can obviously still be hit very hard. For example, he didn't say that the one major hurricane that he's forecasting won't hit land as a hurricane, possibly even as a MH. Also, any of the other four other hurricanes he's forecasting could be quite rough somewhere  if they make landfall. So, always being prepared for the worst case is wise.

Absolutely

 

The self insure decision was strictly a business decision weighing the cost of wind insurance plus the deductible vs my worst case loss frim a cane.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Euro and GFS ensembles showing a possible subptropical development NE of Bermuda in a week.  Potential threat to the Azores.  Which are like the Hawaiian Islands of the Atlantic.  Very infrequent tropical cyclone threat, but active volcanoes.

 

Speaking of stuff (see my above post from Friday) developing in the MDR and hitting a wall of shear if it doesn't recurve,  Danny Morris has a Twitter thread Euro weeklies, Euro, GFS and Canadian all have suggestion of something coming off African in 10 days in a favorable environment after a CCKW.  Not a lead pipe cinch by any means, not all the ensembles have it, and Euro weeklies suggests the Caribbean, if it doesn't recurve, would have hostile shear.  One of the posts below.

 

 

 

[ldub23]

10 hours ago, GaWx said:

7/9/23 updated tropical seasonal outlook from meteorologist Larry Cosgrove:

"Despite what you may have heard, the potential for serious tropical cyclone development is decreasing. Low-latitude westerlies in the Atlantic Basin have still not lifted out, and with each passing day the chance for an extended "window" of favorable heat ridge positioning decreases. Another factor that is influencing the lack of convective production outside of Africa (despite an active ITCZ) is tremendous amounts of Saharan  dust, concurrent with very low dewpoints and high temperatures. 

 Warm waters in the Major Development Region do not alter or break the wind patterns associated with extreme warmth of the 1.2 ENSO sector. At some point the giant ridge complex (which will reach its apex in the last week of July), will weaken and some easterlies will set up from western Africa. But we are running out of time for that synoptic event to happen! Because at some point in late August the flow signatures will reset to west/southwest, shearing thunderstorm tops apart. For now I will keep my forecast total of 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and one major cyclone intact. But do not be surprised if a revision is announced."

Spot  on. CSU may have  been the ones visiting the WH. Increasing  numbers made  no sense. He  is  going  5/1 and  im going  4/1. The east  coast trof  shows  no sign of  going  anywhere. SST'S mean nothing with everything else  totally  hostile.

[Windspeed]

Spot  on. CSU may have  been the ones visiting the WH. Increasing  numbers made  no sense. He  is  going  5/1 and  im going  4/1. The east  coast trof  shows  no sign of  going  anywhere. SST'S mean nothing with everything else  totally  hostile.

Garbage post. Keep your BS politics out of it. Phil does not deserve this crap input. He has proven himself to be among the best tropical climatological forecasters alive, and he would easily school you and your lack of knowledge off a cliff. You do not know squat with your ignorance of how this all works. So just stop.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Spot  on. CSU may have  been the ones visiting the WH. Increasing  numbers made  no sense. He  is  going  5/1 and  im going  4/1. The east  coast trof  shows  no sign of  going  anywhere. SST'S mean nothing with everything else  totally  hostile.

There's no eastern trough 

[ldub23]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

There's no eastern trough 

Tell that  to the  almost  non stop rain. 

[ldub23]

12 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Euro and GFS ensembles showing a possible subptropical development NE of Bermuda in a week.  Potential threat to the Azores.  Which are like the Hawaiian Islands of the Atlantic.  Very infrequent tropical cyclone threat, but active volcanoes.

 

Speaking of stuff (see my above post from Friday) developing in the MDR and hitting a wall of shear if it doesn't recurve,  Danny Morris has a Twitter thread Euro weeklies, Euro, GFS and Canadian all have suggestion of something coming off African in 10 days in a favorable environment after a CCKW.  Not a lead pipe cinch by any means, not all the ensembles have it, and Euro weeklies suggests the Caribbean, if it doesn't recurve, would have hostile shear.  One of the posts below.

 

 

 

 

Things need to get started soon

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

 

Things need to get started soon

Granted, not a Hollywood blockbuster, but the mentioned subtropical development in a week E of Bermuda already has a lemon.  About 10 of the hour 240 Euro ensemble members see the CV system Danny Morris tweeted about.  I suspect Nino does limit the season, but a slow July is pretty normal and thus doesn't prove much.  Nino limiting the season W of 60W isn't all bad, water off Florida is AOA 30C.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Euro seasonals seem to like an active season in the Eastern part of the basin.

 

 

 

[Superstorm93]

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Euro seasonals seem to like an active season in the Eastern part of the basin.

 

 

 

The C3S is basically a "super ensemble" of all the global statistical climate models. 

The actual Euro seasonal came out last week.

[Windspeed]

If something does sneak through west and happens to find some good upper support in a westward trajectory, holy cow is the OHC cooking around the Bahamas, Florida and the EGOM.

[Windspeed]

Here's a little blurp about the current -PDO state. Obviously the +AMO is still cranking. It really is a blessing that we're staring down the barrel of a a moderate to strong +ENSO. If it were neutral, the 2023 ASO would have been a huge ACE producing behemoth. We may very well still see a few intense hurricanes, as reiterated previously, if something can sneak west into a temporarily favorable upper pattern and low-level easterly steering.