2023 Atlantic Hurricane season

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I don't know enough about the Canadian and the CFS- when they seem very different (August shear levels near North America) which one is more likely to be correct.

[GaWx]

 The 12Z Euro has what appears to be a TD on 6/21 that moves WNW to just NE of the Leewards on 6/23.

[shaggy]

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 12Z Euro has what appears to be a TD on 6/21 that moves WNW to just NE of the Leewards on 6/23.

Battle royal this year. El Nino versus bathwater SSTs. Who you got your money on?

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 The 12Z Euro has what appears to be a TD on 6/21 that moves WNW to just NE of the Leewards on 6/23.

I’m intrigued. The overall environment out in the MDR looks good as we enter the last 1/3 of June. 

[tiger_deF]

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, shaggy said:

Battle royal this year. El Nino versus bathwater SSTs. Who you got your money on?

 My money's on uncertainty! This is a tough year to forecast. In the contest I'm going with the less active side vs 1995+, but with low confidence.

[shaggy]

59 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 My money's on uncertainty! This is a tough year to forecast. In the contest I'm going with the less active side vs 1995+, but with low confidence.

Agreed. I'd go lower as well. Doesn't really matter if the warm water helps big storms that subsequently have the roof blown off them.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 hours ago, shaggy said:

Agreed. I'd go lower as well. Doesn't really matter if the warm water helps big storms that subsequently have the roof blown off them.

While this is true, like CC forecasts any storm that finds a hole in the shear will have a higher ceiling for intensification. 

[shaggy]

4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

While this is true, like CC forecasts any storm that finds a hole in the shear will have a higher ceiling for intensification. 

Agreed 

[GaWx]

The 0Z Euro is the 3rd in a row with a closed tropical low in the MDR east of the LAs. This run has it the furthest south and is slightly stronger than the 12Z. It then goes WNW into the Caribbean to SW of PR. That would be a rarity for so early in the season.

 This Euro has a TD that looks close to making minimal TS strength as Bret (assuming 0Z GFS is wrong about its earlier W Caribbean system) that is similar to Bret of 2017. If that occurs, Bret of 2023 would be second only to Bret of 2017 as the earliest TS on record to go into the Caribbean from the east.

 From 8AM TWO:

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa later today and early Friday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic during the early to middle part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Bucci

 

[Normandy]

while the MDR system is interesting, the WCAR system is the one we should be watching.  GFS looks like it’s gonna win huge with this one, lots of people discarded it’s solutions and laughed.  

[WxWatcher007]

I’m still deeply skeptical of anything coming out of the western Caribbean. GFS and its ensembles are on an island right now—doesn’t mean it can’t score a coup but it just seems TC genesis happy there, which is a known bias. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

31 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m still deeply skeptical of anything coming out of the western Caribbean. GFS and its ensembles are on an island right now—doesn’t mean it can’t score a coup but it just seems TC genesis happy there, which is a known bias. 

I'll be watching satellite, but the GFS has been on an island and is still on an island. I'm also skeptical.

[Normandy]

It’s not on an island though.  The euro also shows this vorticity now.  The timeframe has been consistent as well.  I hear the GFS produces phantoms but one needs to look at all the evidence before just blabbering “phantom”.  It’s lazy analysis

[WxWatcher007]

13 minutes ago, Normandy said:

It’s not on an island though.  The euro also shows this vorticity now.  The timeframe has been consistent as well.  I hear the GFS produces phantoms but one needs to look at all the evidence before just blabbering “phantom”.  It’s lazy analysis

I mean, the Euro has some general vorticity sure, but it’s nowhere close on the operational or ensemble guidance to supporting a tropical cyclone IMO. That’s an island to me.

I’m just not sure that there’s enough in the western Caribbean to spin something up. Could be wrong, but I just don’t see a conducive enough environment yet. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

26 minutes ago, Normandy said:

It’s not on an island though.  The euro also shows this vorticity now.  The timeframe has been consistent as well.  I hear the GFS produces phantoms but one needs to look at all the evidence before just blabbering “phantom”.  It’s lazy analysis

I commented on this a week ago, telling @GaWxthe Euro had vorticity down there.  If that had developed as originally forecast on the model, it would be in or approaching the Gulf by now.  Dr. Papin ~10 years ago said the GFS uses a simplifying assumption on the latent heat of condensation such that any area of storms that persist will become warm core in the model.  Dr. Knabb on THC about 3 days ago said the GFS was picking up on the CAG (I'd call it more of a monsoon trough extending through CA into South America than a classic slop gyre.)  That can spin up an Atlantic TC, but more likely to spin up something that develops in the Pacific.

 

Even if a TC forms early next week, after a week of storms that did not develop when predicted, there is no coup.  In favor of the latest GFS, the pushing the system back in time every run has ended, the system becomes a depression on the model in 5 days, not the week to 10 days like prior runs.  And the Euro looks somewhat more supportive, with 500-850 mb vorticity.  12Z ECENS may have a few perturbations with a TC.  Not writing today's 12Z off completely.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

A couple of Euro ensembles support the GFS, and eyeballing the ensemble perturbations, the mean of the ensembles appears to be through the Lesser Antilles.

[WxWatcher007]

You'd think it were August with this look in the eastern MDR. 

[GaWx]

10 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

You'd think it were August with this look in the eastern MDR. 

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form during the early to middle portions of next week while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. Forecaster Bucci

[CheeselandSkies]

Just your casual medium-probability development zone off the coast of Africa on...June 16th.

[CheeselandSkies]

20 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Dr. Papin ~10 years ago said the GFS uses a simplifying assumption on the latent heat of condensation such that any area of storms that persist will become warm core in the model.  Dr. Knabb on THC about 3 days ago said the GFS was picking up on the CAG (I'd call it more of a monsoon trough extending through CA into South America than a classic slop gyre.)  That can spin up an Atlantic TC, but more likely to spin up something that develops in the Pacific.

If this was a known issue ten years ago, why hasn't it been fixed on any of the subsequent updates to the model?

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

5 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

If this was a known issue ten years ago, why hasn't it been fixed on any of the subsequent updates to the model?

I don't know it hasn't been fixed.  If it hasn't, I'm guessing spurious TCs at medium range is something NCEP can live with.

[Normandy]

GFS is showing a gyre like system that dominates the gulf for the near future.  Interesting to see how that feature develops.  Seems like it would be a crazy rainmaker for the south.  The “phantom” is now a strung out mess that gets absorbed into the aforementioned gyre

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

41 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Just your casual medium-probability development zone off the coast of Africa on...June 16th.

A hurricane in a week per GFS.  Misses the Antilles.  The op has something developing NW of the system that helps the recurve I'm not sure about, but the ECENS seem to suggest stronger means a recurve.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

A hurricane in a week per GFS.  Misses the Antilles.  The op has something developing NW of the system that helps the recurve I'm not sure about, but the ECENS seem to suggest stronger means a recurve.

 The 2PM TWO has it now up to 60% within 7 days. The earliest on record back to 1851 of a TS in the tropical Atlantic east of the Caribbean is June 19th, set by Bret in 2017. This could come close. Next earliest is June 24th-25th (1933). The third earliest is June 30th (Elsa of 2021).

*Edit for correction: Elsa was 3rd earliest but it became a TS at 5AM AST on July 1st, not on June 30th.

Elsa track is in here:

[WxWatcher007]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 2PM TWO has it now up to 60% within 7 days. The earliest on record back to 1851 of a TS in the tropical Atlantic east of the Caribbean is June 19th, set by Bret in 2017. This could come close. Next earliest is June 24th (1933). The third earliest is June 30th (Elsa of 2021).

Most robust intensity guidance yet from the Euro.

[WxWatcher007]

This is about as good as it gets for early season MDR activity. It’s an intriguing environmental pattern over the next 5-10 days. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 The 2PM TWO has it now up to 60% within 7 days. The earliest on record back to 1851 of a TS in the tropical Atlantic east of the Caribbean is June 19th, set by Bret in 2017. This could come close. Next earliest is June 24th-25th (1933). The third earliest is June 30th (Elsa of 2021).

*Edit for correction: Elsa was 3rd earliest but it became a TS at 5AM AST on July 1st, not on June 30th.

Elsa track is in here:

 I made another error. 

 I totally missed Ana of 1979. And so did this map of 1851-2015 June 11th-20th formations, which has no TCs forming east of the Caribbean. It first became a TD on June 19th:
 

 So, assuming I now have this right, the earliest TS designations in the tropical Atlantic east of the Caribbean are Bret of 2017 (June 19th), Ana of 1979 (June 22nd), and 1933 (June 24th or 25th). As mentioned, the current disturbance may come close to the earliest of June 19th.

[Windspeed]

This is about as good as it gets for early season MDR activity. It’s an intriguing environmental pattern over the next 5-10 days. 

Perhaps the 2023 season will indeed be front-loaded for activity for the remainder of June, with a busy July and August before shear does eventually increase across the tropical and subtropical Atlantic by September as El Niño inevitably increases mid-to-upper level influence. An active June, July, and August thanks to significantly warmer MDR and most favorable AMO, but with declining activity during ASO. It would be a definite reversal of the last decade, but with the timing of a strengthening southwesterly jet and flow over the Caribbean coming into play much earlier than typical October/November.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

HWRF for 92L, and some GEFS and ECENS have a friend following in the footsteps of what likely becomes Arlene.  Bret.