2023 Atlantic Hurricane season

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS with the Isabel redux 

[Yeoman]

2 hours ago, Conway7305 said:

GFS continues  to show long range storm threat of some sort September 24th. This is the 3rd or 4th run in a row. Unlikely to be correct but worth mentioning. 

There is no day 14 model prog worth mentioning

[Eskimo Joe]

10 hours ago, cptcatz said:

00z GFS weenie run, basically worst case scenario for the mid Atlantic

Naw. Worst case scenario for the Mid Atlantic would be a stalled front for a week that saturates the ground then you get a Cat 2 or 3 into Norfolk that slowly turns right to Philly over the course of two days.

[Sportybx]

GFS with a wild hook into Ri/MA …. These next few days are going to be wild . If it don’t hit the wall and bounce straight north . The NJ up to MA coast should start getting ready 

[Floydbuster]

The long-range GFS has a 1996 scenario with Hurricane Lee taking a track similar to Hurricane Edouard '96 and a new system slamming into North Carolina as the worst strike since Hurricane Fran '96.

This season just feels so much like '96, especially with that constant wave train.

[NorthHillsWx]

Margot looks like a hurricane this morning. Think we’ll see an update at 11. The activity continues 

[NJwx85]

6 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

The long-range GFS has a 1996 scenario with Hurricane Lee taking a track similar to Hurricane Edouard '96 and a new system slamming into North Carolina as the worst strike since Hurricane Fran '96.

This season just feels so much like '96, especially with that constant wave train.

Most, but not all of the 06z GEFS members steer the next system safely out to sea. Threat is not zero but is minimal at this time.

[larrye]

On 9/10/2023 at 3:38 PM, Yeoman said:

There is no day 14 model prog worth mentioning

Worth mentioning when it's day 12 and the GFS appears consistent over many runs at the very least showing an EC threat. Not saying that long-range is reliable or you can draw any conclusions. Not saying it won't disappear completely tomorrow. Just sayin' it's something to watch over the next week (just as we did for Lee at that point).

[Floydbuster]

5 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Most, but not all of the 06z GEFS members steer the next system safely out to sea. Threat is not zero but is minimal at this time.

Many do, but some show a much closer Bahamas approach than Lee ever came to.

And now the 12Z GFS has a New England landfall in the long-range. Definitely something to watch regardless.

[Rtd208]

Well that was an interesting 00z GFS run in regards to the next tropical system to keep an eye on around 9/24-9/25. After getting dangerously close to the NC coast it decides to hit the brakes and meander off the NC/SC coast for a few days. You can't make this stuff up. LOL

[TheDreamTraveler]

2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Well that was an interesting 00z GFS run in regards to the next tropical system to keep an eye on around 9/24-9/25. After getting dangerously close to the NC coast it decides to hit the brakes and meander off the NC/SC coast for a few days. You can't make this stuff up. LOL

What's even funnier with that run there's a hurricane right behind that other one lmao

[cptcatz]

GFS can't make up its mind with Nigel. After that crazy 00z run, it follows up with 06z where it doesn't even make it west of Bermuda. 

[NorthHillsWx]

That 0z run would be one of the worst erosion events ever for the SE coast lol

[jconsor]

I think we need to watch the eastern Caribbean in late Sep. Also expecting more NW Caribbean activity than usual in Oct-Nov for an El Nino.
 

 

[NJwx85]

12z GFS has a major hurricane one week from today Southeast of Bermuda and heading West with ridging overhead. It needs to miss the weakness leftover behind Margot if it has a chance of making it West of Bermuda. 

[NJwx85]

Also to note is that the GFS has moderate Southwesterly shear building West of potential Nigel thanks to deep East coast trough.

[StantonParkHoya]

Looks like GFS goes east of Bermuda and euro goes right over it

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

The Gulf and Caribbean are staying quiet at least through the next two weeks per the GFS ensembles.  Little to no activity through mid October for the Euro weeklies.  Good for Florida.  I don't see why the Caribbean would be so quiet, although weeklies suggesting EPAC action which would be suppressive of the Caribbean.

[NJwx85]

3 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

The Gulf and Caribbean are staying quiet at least through the next two weeks per the GFS ensembles.  Little to no activity through mid October for the Euro weeklies.  Good for Florida.  I don't see why the Caribbean would be so quiet, although weeklies suggesting EPAC action which would be suppressive of the Caribbean.

Part of the reason is that conditions have been favorable in the MDR so systems aren't making it that far West.

[NorthHillsWx]

With yet another long track storm possible next week, it’s worth noting that Atlantic ACE has exceeded 100 units this morning and with two active storms plus the future Nigel on the way, that value will continue to increase through next week. We are now running well ahead and likely to exceed normal seasonal values if early forecasts for Nigel verify. Pretty impressive for an El Niño year 

[Windspeed]

With yet another long track storm possible next week, it’s worth noting that Atlantic ACE has exceeded 100 units this morning and with two active storms plus the future Nigel on the way, that value will continue to increase through next week. We are now running well ahead and likely to exceed normal seasonal values if early forecasts for Nigel verify. Pretty impressive for an El Niño year 

It's phenomenal for an El Niño year, and it's not a even a weak one. The warm Atlantic basin really did a number to offset +ENSO. Plus, the subtropical jet has been displaced as such to make shear just manageable enough to get MDR hurricanes. Though I would argue that shear has still been an issue, such as Franklin getting kicked hard early in its life cycle and Lee getting over-modeled as a long duration high-end hurricane. Still, there wasn't an analog for what we've been witnessing. Fortunately, the MDR 'canes have cooperated with a recurving pattern in place. Though, not to downplay future impacts by a weakening Lee on Maine and Canada. Also, we did get lucky with the timing of an ERC and landfall location by Idalia, though this was not an MDR system. With late Sept. and early Oct., we have the usual transition back to GOM and WCARIB systems, which could still pose a threat. Furthermore, it isn't too late to have an MDR system still be a land threat for the Lesser and Greater Antilles down the road as well.

Having considered if a strong +ENSO will even shut down the Atlantic prior to normal seasonal ASO decline at this point.

[StantonParkHoya]

I’m not sure El Niño has matured to have an impact on this season, but could see some impacts on next.

[WxWatcher007]

I don’t think the Niño will stick around enough to disrupt next year. I don’t like going super long range, but next year looks…not good…

It’s just one of those exceptionally active periods in the basin. It took a third year Nina to slow down last year and that was a low grade speed bump. 

[GaWx]

15 hours ago, Windspeed said:

It's phenomenal for an El Niño year, and it's not a even a weak one. The warm Atlantic basin really did a number to offset +ENSO. Plus, the subtropical jet has been displaced as such to make shear just manageable enough to get MDR hurricanes. Though I would argue that shear has still been an issue, such as Franklin getting kicked hard early in its life cycle and Lee getting over-modeled as a long duration high-end hurricane. Still, there wasn't an analog for what we've been witnessing. Fortunately, the MDR 'canes have cooperated with a recurving pattern in place. Though, not to downplay future impacts by a weakening Lee on Maine and Canada. Also, we did get lucky with the timing of an ERC and landfall location by Idalia, though this was not an MDR system. With late Sept. and early Oct., we have the usual transition back to GOM and WCARIB systems, which could still pose a threat. Furthermore, it isn't too late to have an MDR system still be a land threat for the Lesser and Greater Antilles down the road as well.

Having considered if a strong +ENSO will even shut down the Atlantic prior to normal seasonal ASO decline at this point.

 Whereas there hasn't at all been the typical reduction in ACE associated with El Niño, there has been a weak Bermuda High/WAR along with the usual tracks associated with it. As incredibly busy as it has been, there so far has been only one storm with a W or WNW heading W of 74W (Harold) and there are no others in sight! That is typical of a moderate or stronger El Niño:

[chris21]

GFS/Euro showing a home brew scenario after hr. 150 east of Florida.

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, chris21 said:

GFS/Euro showing a home brew scenario after hr. 150 east of Florida.

Hint of it on the Euro too. 

Given the overall pattern, any MDR stuff is getting kicked. If there are going to be any other US impacts, it'll come from a homebrew system IMO. Probably will be good for one to three between now and October 20. 

[Floydbuster]

17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hint of it on the Euro too. 

Given the overall pattern, any MDR stuff is getting kicked. If there are going to be any other US impacts, it'll come from a homebrew system IMO. Probably will be good for one to three between now and October 20. 

Still would watch the waves that progress west towards the Caribbean. I remember Hurricane Iris in October 2001 came from a heavily sheared wave in the eastern and central Atlantic that eventually made it into the Caribbean Sea.

[ldub23]

8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don’t think the Niño will stick around enough to disrupt next year. I don’t like going super long range, but next year looks…not good…

It’s just one of those exceptionally active periods in the basin. It took a third year Nina to slow down last year and that was a low grade speed bump. 

JB has said next season will double this  years  numbers with an ace well over  200

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Still would watch the waves that progress west towards the Caribbean. I remember Hurricane Iris in October 2001 came from a heavily sheared wave in the eastern and central Atlantic that eventually made it into the Caribbean Sea.

Yeah that's what I mean too. If something develops in the W Carib I think that's homebrew even if the wave came from Africa. 

[GaWx]

30 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

JB has said next season will double this  years  numbers with an ace well over  200

He also said Lee would restrengthen down to 920 mb and it got down only to ~946. He often swings for the fences. So, I recommend taking him with a big grain though that doesn't mean next season won't be very active. If this season gets to 150 ACE, does that mean a prediction of 300?