2023 Atlantic Hurricane season

[WxWatcher007]

10 hours ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

Aside from the timing (ie - imagine the steering pattern solutions were more reliable) -- is my overall take accurate?

Yes, I think so, just keep in mind that troughs can easily modify in future runs. The orientation and depth matters a lot—like we saw with Franklin. 

 

[hlcater]

So Jose might be a hurricane 

[Normandy]

Now THAT is a a micro cane! 

[Boston Bulldog]

Brutal miss on the latest pass of GMI for Jose

 

Regardless, interesting discussion included in tonight's 11pm EDT package. Yet another innocuous spin-up in the subtropics defying expectations. A clean shave of Jose's convection is likely incoming tomorrow once Franklin draws closer. 

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112023
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

Jose is a tiny tropical cyclone with the convective cloud tops only
extending 50 to 60 n mi across.  However, geostationary satellite
and microwave images indicate that the storm has a tight
circulation with evidence of a mid-level eye feature. A recent
ASCAT pass showed peak winds in the 40-45 kt range, but since the
system is so small that instrument likely can not resolve the peak
winds.  The initial intensity is increased to 50 kt, which is above
the Dvorak estimates.

Jose is likely near its peak intensity.  There is no way Jose will 
escape the outflow associated with Hurricane Franklin, that is 
expected to begin affecting the small storm by midday Friday.  
Therefore, the forecast shows a steady weakening trend until it 
becomes absorbed by Franklin in about 36 hours.

The storm is moving northward at 11 kt and is moving in the flow 
between Franklin and a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic.  A 
faster motion to the north is expected until the system dissipates 
on Saturday.  The NHC track forecast is slightly to the west of the 
previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 32.7N  52.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 35.5N  52.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 39.9N  51.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci/Fritz

[GaWx]

Due mainly to Harold and Idalia, much of the Gulf has cooled ~1C over the last two weeks:

Aug 17th near record warmth dominated by 31-32C (~88-90F):

 

August 30th: still very warm but much of it cooled ~1C to mainly 30-31C (86-88F) with a small area affected by both storms cooling nearly 2C (32 to 30) near 25-26N, 84-85W:

[GaWx]

The typically conservative UKMET (0Z) once again is pretty strong with this E MDR lemon AEW that about all models now develop:

 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  54 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 10.9N  22.9W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 03.09.2023   60  11.4N  24.8W     1008            37
    0000UTC 04.09.2023   72  10.8N  27.6W     1008            32
    1200UTC 04.09.2023   84  11.6N  31.6W     1008            31
    0000UTC 05.09.2023   96  12.3N  35.1W     1006            34
    1200UTC 05.09.2023  108  13.0N  39.3W     1005            35
    0000UTC 06.09.2023  120  13.7N  42.6W     1005            31
    1200UTC 06.09.2023  132  13.9N  45.5W     1001            37
    0000UTC 07.09.2023  144  14.5N  48.1W     1000            39
    1200UTC 07.09.2023  156  15.3N  50.6W      997            51
    0000UTC 08.09.2023  168  16.2N  53.3W      997            47

[thunderbolt]

I smell a fish

[NorthHillsWx]

 Not sure I’ve ever seen a cluster of storms in such a small area. That’s insanity in the Atlantic right now 

[cptcatz]

Lololol NHC literally said "no way Jose" in their discussion. 

But back in topic, GFS and Euro ensembles bring this MDR system awfully close to the east coast. Looks like we could get the first legit long tracking CV storm to threaten the US since... Irma?

[Jtm12180]

39 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Lololol NHC literally said "no way Jose" in their discussion. 

But back in topic, GFS and Euro ensembles bring this MDR system awfully close to the east coast. Looks like we could get the first legit long tracking CV storm to threaten the US since... Irma?

 

Yeah just saw that myself...

[WxWatcher007]

From a legit dead basin to this. Buckle up folks, I think we’re rolling through the 20th.

 

 

[bigtenfan]

3 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Lololol NHC literally said "no way Jose" in their discussion. 

But back in topic, GFS and Euro ensembles bring this MDR system awfully close to the east coast. Looks like we could get the first legit long tracking CV storm to threaten the US since... Irma?

 It does bear watching although so far anyway the GFS looks to be alone in the track when you look at the 240 hour position  on the EPS and CMC vs the GFS. Also neither the GEFS or the EPS give much support to bringing it that close the the EC

[GaWx]

9 hours ago, thunderbolt said:

I smell a fish

-Usually the best bet for an E MDR system since 75%+ don't hit the US although nowhere near a safe bet at least yet imo

-12Z UKMET: still has TCG but unlike the prior run having TCG on Sunday, this waits til Wednesday (9/6). With the delay, it is notably weaker but is still in a potentially dangerous position at 168 (9/8) 300 miles E of the Leewards moving WNW at 15 mph:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 14.2N  44.1W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 06.09.2023  120  14.2N  44.1W     1010            27
    0000UTC 07.09.2023  132  14.1N  46.7W     1009            29
    1200UTC 07.09.2023  144  14.9N  49.0W     1007            37
    0000UTC 08.09.2023  156  15.4N  51.8W     1007            31
    1200UTC 08.09.2023  168  16.1N  54.9W     1007            34

[GaWx]

From the 12Z UKMET hour 168:

Surface showing TC 300 miles E of Leewards (moving WNW at 15): scroll down

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/2023090112/americas/sea-level-pressure/20230908-1200z.html

--------------------------
H5: In addition to being a threat to the NE Caribbean, the 12Z UKMET doesn't yet look like anything close to a guarantee to not hit the CONUS although the best bet this far out is a miss based on 75%+ of E MDR systems doing just that: scroll down

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/2023090112/americas/geopotential-height-500hpa/20230908-1200z.html

[GaWx]

For this same AEW, I count 27 12Z EPS members (53%) with a H. That is more than the 0Z and is as high as any EPS I can recall for any as yet to develop system in the MDR this season to date. So, at a minimum, this looks likely to be a big ACE producer giving us pretty satellite pics.

 Edited

[cptcatz]

12z euro brings this down to 935mb. That's pretty unheard of from euro this far out. 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Gert is back to being a Tropical Storm 

[hlcater]

Haha……..

 

 

[andyhb]

A lot of very strong members with potential Lee. Looks like a potential long tracker/high ACE producer at minimum. Not an auto-fish look either.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

47 minutes ago, andyhb said:

A lot of very strong members with potential Lee. Looks like a potential long tracker/high ACE producer at minimum. Not an auto-fish look either.

Models have gotten better in 15 years, but archived 2008 NHC forecast graphics show Ike recurving as ECUSA threat, not a Gulf threat.  Based on models out 5 days.  This system doesn't look like a Gulf threat, the ridge that produced record heat and drought in Houston doesn't move enough to let anything get anywhere close.  Looking at Euro ensembles, ECUSA aren't impossible looking at op 500 mb heights at 240 hours, generally supported in the means.. Euro individual members look fishy.  

 

Or fish is likely, but I can see some weenie possibilities. 

 

Wildly OT, but storms named Lee and drought - 2011's Lee (landfall in Louisiana, September 4) was dry on the W side, and its winds toppled drought damaged tree limbs onto power lines, starting a fire which destroyed ~1800 businesses and homes in rural Bastrop County, between Austin and Houston.  

[MJO812]

Gfs back on board

[WxSynopsisDavid]

1 hour ago, hlcater said:

Haha……..

 

 

WTH going on with the Euro Ensembles? Did it get a virus or malware?

 

898mb……hate to be any aquatic life form in that general area. Or a bird really, I mean imagine being a bird and flying into that thing. Geez.

[WxWatcher007]

3 hours ago, andyhb said:

A lot of very strong members with potential Lee. Looks like a potential long tracker/high ACE producer at minimum. Not an auto-fish look either.

It’s as legit a pre-genesis signal for a long track major hurricane as I’ve seen in a while.

No guarantees it stays OTS but I’d probably favor that at the moment just given climo. 

[Floydbuster]

I have a suspicion this one could make it very far west, and potentially be a threat to the Virgin Islands.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

If my memory serves me correct, Cape Verde storms that intensify quicker and much sooner before getting to the Lesser Antilles typically track more to the south. If I'm wrong, someone correct me please.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

5 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

If my memory serves me correct, Cape Verde storms that intensify quicker and much sooner before getting to the Lesser Antilles typically track more to the south. If I'm wrong, someone correct me please.

I could be wrong, I thought systems that stayed weak were more influenced by shallow steering, following the trades, and would be less likely to curve out to sea when there was weakness to N.  OTOH, looking at the Euro ensembles, there is a suggestion of stronger members being further S

[WxSynopsisDavid]

2 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I could be wrong, I thought systems that stayed weak were more influenced by shallow steering, following the trades, and would be less likely to curve out to sea when there was weakness to N.  OTOH, looking at the Euro ensembles, there is a suggestion of stronger members being further S

Thanks for the help on this, you could be right and if so that would make sense about weaker storm staying south.

[Kmlwx]

25 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

If my memory serves me correct, Cape Verde storms that intensify quicker and much sooner before getting to the Lesser Antilles typically track more to the south. If I'm wrong, someone correct me please.

A more intense storm is more likely to be pulled poleward and thus out to sea versus a weaker one. This is why some storms that have had significant trouble organizing have ended up unexpectedly going into the Caribbean instead of on an E coast threatening trajectory or ots. 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

A more intense storm is more likely to be pulled poleward and thus out to sea versus a weaker one. This is why some storms that have had significant trouble organizing have ended up unexpectedly going into the Caribbean instead of on an E coast threatening trajectory or ots. 

Make sense, thank you for the clarification on that. 

[Floydbuster]

Time goes so fast that even though it feels like the islands just got slammed by Irma and Maria, that was already six years ago, a similar time frame from between Hugo 1989 and Luis 1995.