WxWatcher007 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 That wave near the Antilles is worth watching. It may not look like much now as it’s consumed by SAL, or show up as clearly in the Gulf on model runs, but the environment in the Gulf a few days from now look good for something discrete to gain vorticity and organize some. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Yes, the 12Z GFS has no H. The last on the list with a H is the 6Z GFS. Meanwhile: Some pretty significant model news since the UKMET tends to be conservative: -The 12Z UKMET has TCG from the westernmost lemon in the W MDR on Fri (8/18) and it then hits the Leewards as a TS late on Saturday (8/19). -It then moves WNW to Hispaniola on Mon (8/21) still as a TS -It ends up near SE Bahamas as a slowly strengthening TS on Tue (8/22) moving slowly WNW and in a potentially threatening position to the Bahamas/SE US. NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 14.2N 51.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 19.08.2023 84 14.7N 53.5W 1005 30 1200UTC 19.08.2023 96 15.4N 57.4W 1004 34 0000UTC 20.08.2023 108 16.3N 60.5W 1003 37 1200UTC 20.08.2023 120 17.5N 63.5W 1004 40 0000UTC 21.08.2023 132 17.8N 67.0W 1004 37 1200UTC 21.08.2023 144 19.4N 68.7W 1004 38 0000UTC 22.08.2023 156 20.3N 71.2W 1004 37 1200UTC 22.08.2023 168 21.0N 72.9W 1003 39 Edit: But the 12Z Euro like the GFS has just about nothing. What I mean by the 12Z Euro having just about nothing is that it has no surface circulation although it has trackable 850 mb vorticity further south. This even leads to a very weak low over FL at 240. The JMA has only a weak reflection at the surface (no circ), but it is a little stronger than the prior 12Z run and pretty much takes the UKMET track from the LAs to the SE Bahamas. You can tell from the widespread 2" of qpf in and near the LAs from this that it has some "oomph" so to speak. Ever since the August 4th EPS runs, this feature has more or less had some model support and it absolutely bears watching! Yet, the NHC still has TCG chances at only 10%. I'd raise them to 30%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 More on the central MDR lemon: The 12Z EPS still is active with this AEW with ~half the members having TCG though there are fewer H vs the prior run. While having fewer H, it actually is more threatening further west because the tracks are on average further SW with many more going across the LAs and then a good portion of those going well into the Caribbean followed by either dissipation or moving over Hisp/Cuba followed by Bahamas. Some though move NW toward Virgin Islands/PR followed mostly by E of the Bahamas. A few still recurve sharply before the Caribbean and then threaten Bermuda. Bottom line for 12Z EPS vs 0Z: not as many H but centered closer to the US over Bahamas vs 0Z's mainly E of the Bahamas to Bermuda. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 I honestly think I’d put a D7 lemon on whatever meanders into the Gulf. GFS has something close to a TC but more importantly, the ensemble signal has grown steadily as we get closer to what looks like a conducive environment for gradual development taking shape. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 42 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I honestly think I’d put a D7 lemon on whatever meanders into the Gulf. GFS has something close to a TC but more importantly, the ensemble signal has grown steadily as we get closer to what looks like a conducive environment for gradual development taking shape. Agreed. This is the one we should be focused on at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 On 8/14/2023 at 1:13 PM, nwohweather said: As long as you have all that saharan dust out there, I don't care what any model shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 3. Western Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure could form in the central or western Gulf of Mexico by the beginning of next week. Some slow development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves generally westward, potentially nearing the western Gulf of Mexico coastline in about a week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 T 13 minutes ago, GaWx said: The GFS came alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 I'm a little surprised at the lemons from the NHC. Seems a little bullish to me. The models aren't THAT consistent yet with Gulf development, and this is a huge surge of dry SAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 5 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: I'm a little surprised at the lemons from the NHC. Seems a little bullish to me. The models aren't THAT consistent yet with Gulf development, and this is a huge surge of dry SAL. The SAL is forecasted to diminish substantially starting in ~5 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 18Z looks very interesting at 90 hours with a tropical storm approaching the Leeward islands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 Central MDR lemon; 18Z Euro stronger than 12Z and chances increased from 0/10 to 10/30: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave, interacting with a larger trough of low pressure, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some gradual development of this system during the next several days as it moves to the west-northwestward or northwestward between 10-15 mph across the tropical Atlantic through the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 5 of the 18Z GFS ensemble members have very weak systems in the Gulf in the next week. This is mostly a Euro family thing, and Euro seems to have been tweaking. I think NHC could have waited a day or two to see if model support increased. Speaking of tweaking, the GFS ensembles in 12 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 18z EPS still showing four distinct clusters within 144 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 I think a 0/20 makes sense for the Gulf. Again, it's not that there's anything particularly special right now with the wave, but that there should be a window for gradual development if it can get stay coherent and take advantage of cyclonic flow in the western Atlantic. It's not surprising IMO that the guidance has a marginal signal thus far, and that they've become more bullish as the wave traverses west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 If the GFS is to be believed, we see three named storms at least before august ends. Other model consensus also coming into agreement. The bell has been rung! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 For the central MDR lemon: 0Z UKMET NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 20.5N 67.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 22.08.2023 156 21.0N 67.9W 1006 35 0000UTC 23.08.2023 168 21.7N 69.9W 1006 37 From 2AM EDT TWO: up to 20/40 from 10/30 1. Central Tropical Atlantic: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the central tropical Atlantic are associated with an elongated trough of low pressure centered about 600 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the next several days while moving toward the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 The 0Z UKMET has a new TS form in the far E MDR in a week moving WNW: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 10.5N 16.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 22.08.2023 156 10.5N 16.9W 1006 28 0000UTC 23.08.2023 168 11.1N 19.4W 1006 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 The 00Z GFS is terrifying, with what would appear to be: Hurricane "Emily" moving out to sea in the Atlantic Tropical Storm "Franklin" spinning in the far eastern Atlantic Hurricane "Gert" making landfall in South Texas similar to Hanna 2020 Hurricane "Harold" making a devastating 939 mb landfall in the Mississippi Delta Thank goodness it's just a long-range run, but still. Geez... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 Two oranges in the MDR and the lemon in the Gulf now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 The effects of El Nino and SAL on the Atlantic hurricane season 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said: The effects of El Nino and SAL on the Atlantic hurricane season 1. The overall magnitude of SAL is about to sharply decrease, which largely matches the typical decrease in mid August and is one of the main reasons that there is a climatologically sharp increase in activity in late August. 2. One of the typical effects of a moderate+ El Niño is overall increased Caribbean shear coming in from the west. However, to this point overall, that has yet to take place. Of course, that may start dominating at any point as El Niño strengthens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 Regarding the central MDR lemon, the 12Z UKMET again develops this into a TS. It hits the Leewards to PR followed by a recurve E of the Bahamas to a position that could later threaten Bermuda: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 16.2N 59.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 20.08.2023 96 16.7N 60.2W 1005 34 0000UTC 21.08.2023 108 17.3N 62.1W 1005 35 1200UTC 21.08.2023 120 18.4N 64.4W 1004 36 0000UTC 22.08.2023 132 19.8N 65.4W 1004 40 1200UTC 22.08.2023 144 21.2N 67.5W 1004 45 0000UTC 23.08.2023 156 22.2N 67.5W 1003 41 1200UTC 23.08.2023 168 24.5N 68.2W 1004 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 10 hours ago, GaWx said: The 0Z UKMET has a new TS form in the far E MDR in a week moving WNW: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 10.5N 16.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 22.08.2023 156 10.5N 16.9W 1006 28 0000UTC 23.08.2023 168 11.1N 19.4W 1006 35 1. The 12Z UKMET is similar to the prior run with a new TC in the far E MDR at 168: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 12.1N 20.3W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 23.08.2023 168 12.1N 20.3W 1006 30 2. The UKMET still has no TC in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 12Z GFS almost closed the wave in the Gulf, the 18Z was a little further off. Only a couple of the 18Z GEFS close a low. 12Z Canadian very weak low near the border is worst case scenario with 18 straight 100°F days in Houston and 7 weeks no rain. 18Z GFS wave does drop a widespread inch of rain. Not enough to stop the inevitable fires a week or two later. I think the big show this week is whether NHC will declare Hilary non-tropical before California. Forecast shows that, but I'm hoping. The wave near the CVs 'has the look' on MIMIC-TPW, even if it satellite presentation doesn't look that great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 98L per SHIPS is a hurricane in 3 days before 35 knot shear starts to destroy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 Not sure why the two oranges have the same development odds but only one is an invest. Still need to see development of course but it looks like the switch is flipping on with the monsoon trough breaking down into three areas of vorticity, the potential Gulf development, and what looks like a potential quasi-CAG in the western Atlantic/Caribbean. The GFS has a bunch of weenie solutions with that, but that may have the highest end potential long term for a strong system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 The issue here is a western MDR TUTT. The GFS seems to drive a TC through it, north of the Greater Antilles; but obviously that scenario isn't ideal for westward moving TC into WNW steering flow. I wouldn't get too excited yet. The pattern is crap for any long range CV system. We're just going to have to see what early September brings. I am not confident for above normal activity. I already stated this. We'll see...Yes, of course a home-grown frontal remnant system could develop or a CAG system in the western Caribbean. But that is very low probability. It's just going to take some serious patience to see how this all irons out.To put it mildly, I think the whole setup is garbage. Regardless of the AMO state, I do not like the upper level environment and state of subsidence right now. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 47 minutes ago, Windspeed said: The issue here is a western MDR TUTT. The GFS seems to drive a TC through it, north of the Greater Antilles; but obviously that scenario isn't ideal for westward moving TC into WNW steering flow. I wouldn't get too excited yet. The pattern is crap for any long range CV system. We're just going to have to see what early September brings. I am not confident for above normal activity. I already stated this. We'll see... Yes, of course a home-grown frontal remnant system could develop or a CAG system in the western Caribbean. But that is very low probability. It's just going to take some serious patience to see how this all irons out. To put it mildly, I think the whole setup is garbage. Regardless of the AMO state, I do not like the upper level environment and state of subsidence right now. Good stuff—points well taken. I agree about the TUTTs that look poised to pepper the Atlantic and the subsidence in the MDR are an issue. For that reason I do think eastern/central MDR stuff will struggle, though not as much as before. Perhaps we get one of those three areas along the MT named? Two if there’s enough separation? Nothing spectacular. I’m honestly more intrigued by prospects further west. Like a number of recent seasons, with a hostile MDR we’ve seen some AEWs find a window in the western Atlantic or Gulf for development. Away from the influence of SAL/Subsidence and maybe (?) a gauntlet of TUTTs we get something to pop—like you said though, that’ll require patience. A strong wave will need to survive the trek, and an August CAG is always low probability and even if one develops, the activity could focus in the EPAC. I continue to believe these next two weeks are critical to the overall season. Unlike prior seasons where an active September and even October provided a backloaded season, if the basin underperforms during this late August period, it becomes extremely hard to see even a normal season (particularly in the H/MH spaces) given the atmospheric response we’re seeing to the niño. I guess that’s a long winded way to say I’m not as bearish as you, but I’ve got my eyes on the towel in case I need to reach for it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 Regarding the mid/MDR tangerine, which has become Invest 99L: TWO: now up to 40%/60% 0Z UKMET: yet again a TS in the Leewards, but this run then has it go NNW and later NNE track that aims well to the E of Bermuda: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 16.9N 58.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 20.08.2023 84 16.9N 58.9W 1006 28 0000UTC 21.08.2023 96 17.6N 60.3W 1005 34 1200UTC 21.08.2023 108 19.2N 60.9W 1005 42 0000UTC 22.08.2023 120 20.2N 61.4W 1003 39 1200UTC 22.08.2023 132 22.0N 61.8W 1003 44 0000UTC 23.08.2023 144 23.8N 62.3W 1004 35 1200UTC 23.08.2023 156 25.6N 61.8W 1005 31 0000UTC 24.08.2023 168 26.9N 60.9W 1004 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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