2023 Atlantic Hurricane season

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

37 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It just seems unreasonable at this time to put 11 hurricanes on any forecast this year. It’s mid August and we have had 1 (barely) hurricane with no sign of any forming through late month. Getting 10 storms in September/October alone would be busy but 10 hurricanes then sounds ludicrous based on what we’ve seen to this point. Someone can save this post to remind me I said this when that happens but that’s a comical forecast to me though I guess the point is the median lies with an above average season when the dust settles 

I hate to say it but I agree. I think too many people, pros included are warm water drunk so to speak. The Atlantic could be 40c and if there’s a ton of shear and dry air it doesn’t matter. 
That said, any storm that finds a moist low shear area has the potential to go nuclear.

This is basically what long term climate models are forecasting. More cat 5s and less 1/2s relative to climatology.

[tiger_deF]

Several low pressure systems are moving/are forecasted to move across Africa in the next week. They are already advecting a massive plume of SAL into the Atlantic. 

[GaWx]

21 hours ago, ldub23 said:

 Per the 12Z EPS and earlier runs, the key wave appears to me to be what produces the weak low on this map from yesterday's 0Z Euro that is near 15N, 58W at 240 and not the wave behind it that produces the depicted mid MDR 1006 mb low, which is the same low the 12Z Euro recurves.
 
 The 12Z EPS has a whopping 8 hurricanes out of the 51 members from the earlier wave, which is about as active as any EPS run in quite awhile. I think I can trace this to some extent all the way back to the 0Z Aug 4th EPS run. This wave is to come off Africa over this weekend, which is ahead of the AEW that leads to the aforementioned recurving 12Z Euro low.

[jconsor]

The system near the Bahamas has maintained healthy outflow aloft and some mid-level spin on satellite for at least 24 hours, though convection has waxed and waned.

I wrote about the potential for this system (or a few others trailing it) to take advantage of favorable light shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week and possibly become "surprise" TCs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

The new 0Z Euro has the active EPS system as a strengthening 1005 mb low just S of PR moving WNW at 240 and has very little for the followup wave that recurved on the 12Z.

[ldub23]

37 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The new 0Z Euro has the active EPS system as a strengthening 1005 mb low just S of PR moving WNW at 240 and has very little for the followup wave that recurved on the 12Z.

GFS has this but  im doubtful because  if things are  more favorable then there would  be something  behind  it and there  isnt

 

 

and  JB is saying  it again

This is the euro you  mentioned. 5 more days  and  it  might  be where the gfs  has the  cane

 

[GaWx]

57 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

GFS has this but  im doubtful because  if things are  more favorable then there would  be something  behind  it and there  isnt

 

 

and  JB is saying  it again

This is the euro you  mentioned. 5 more days  and  it  might  be where the gfs  has the  cane

 

1. Indeed, the 0Z GFS has a H south of LA on 8/26. That makes 5 GFS runs out of 45 (1 in 9) since 7/31 with a H on the run:

-7/31 12Z: hit SC 8/16
-8/3 6Z: hit MX/TX border 8/16
-8/6 0Z: MDR 8/18-21
-8/9 18Z: just off SC 8/25
-8/11 0Z: just off LA 8/26

 

2. At 240, the 0Z EPS is once again quite active with that lead wave.

 

 

[ldub23]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

1. Indeed, the 0Z GFS has a H south of LA on 8/26. That makes 5 GFS runs out of 45 (1 in 9) since 7/31 with a H on the run:

-7/31 12Z: hit SC 8/16
-8/3 6Z: hit MX/TX border 8/16
-8/6 0Z: MDR 8/18-21
-8/9 18Z: just off SC 8/25
-8/11 0Z: just off LA 8/26

 

2. At 240, the 0Z EPS is once again quite active with that lead wave.

 

 

06 gfs has  nothing except  a weak low thats going to recurve. Im amazed NOAA was so high and  no one  is reducing  numbers  by alot.

[shaggy]

35 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

06 gfs has  nothing except  a weak low thats going to recurve. Im amazed NOAA was so high and  no one  is reducing  numbers  by alot.

It's early August. In pre- 2000s we would be lucky to have 1 named storm by this point in the season. 

[ldub23]

The Man says  it again. This will be a Sept to remember. 1954? 85?

 

https://www.cfact.org/2023/08/11/hurricane-update/

• "This hurricane season, a September to remember is on the table.
• The expected impacts on the U.S. Coast have increased compared to the last forecast.
• Keep in mind that this is, in essence, a “normal” season.
  • 1985 and 1954 were “normal” seasons but had a high impact, and this may be like that."

And  just wait till next season. Double the  numbers, triple the fun

 

Note that next year may be a doozy of a season. I believe this is a bounce-back El Niño in response to the longest and strongest MEI El Niño on record, so we should collapse it and go back to a La Niña base state. SSTs will remain warm, and so that may be a season number-wise (at least for totals) two times higher than this year.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

44 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

The Man says  it again. This will be a Sept to remember. 1954? 85?

 

https://www.cfact.org/2023/08/11/hurricane-update/

• "This hurricane season, a September to remember is on the table.
• The expected impacts on the U.S. Coast have increased compared to the last forecast.
• Keep in mind that this is, in essence, a “normal” season.
  • 1985 and 1954 were “normal” seasons but had a high impact, and this may be like that."

And  just wait till next season. Double the  numbers, triple the fun

 

Note that next year may be a doozy of a season. I believe this is a bounce-back El Niño in response to the longest and strongest MEI El Niño on record, so we should collapse it and go back to a La Niña base state. SSTs will remain warm, and so that may be a season number-wise (at least for totals) two times higher than this year.

85 was a easing Nina, '08 was a neutral after Nina season.  This year, a building strong to super Nino.  But hey, Hurricane Gloria and Hurricane Ike, sure, all the signs are there.  Did I mention his dad taught an hour (on a Sunday) from Houston and he spent a few years in Texas, and his family is from Rhode Island.  I'm disappointed 1954 isn't a JB analog.  Edit- 1954 was mentioned.

 

Edit 2- Euro weeklies TS probs suggest there will be activity near (or impacting) ECUSA

[tiger_deF]

It's hard to take these bullish forecasts seriously when the Eastern Atlantic (which has been discussed as being a  more favorable hotspot this season) is so, so dry. 

[csnavywx]

19 hours ago, jconsor said:

The system near the Bahamas has maintained healthy outflow aloft and some mid-level spin on satellite for at least 24 hours, though convection has waxed and waned.

I wrote about the potential for this system (or a few others trailing it) to take advantage of favorable light shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week and possibly become "surprise" TCs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Genuinely hoping none of those pan out. The last thing we need is a TC making into the furnace that is current Gulf/Carrib. SSTs/OHC with low shear this year:

[csnavywx]

1 hour ago, tiger_deF said:

It's hard to take these bullish forecasts seriously when the Eastern Atlantic (which has been discussed as being a  more favorable hotspot this season) is so, so dry. 

For sure -- we're getting close to put-up-or-shut-up time. My lean this year has been at or below average. But it's the type of year where even one or two decent setups can yield some seriously convex risk.

[GaWx]

The 12Z CMC is developing the wave about to come off/the one the EPS has been harping on to possibly threaten the CONUS 8/23-7. The 12Z Euro has this as a weak but possibly dangerous to Gulf Caribbean Cruiser.

[WxWatcher007]

Quite an active 12z EPS run. 

[tiger_deF]

I think the chances of an August shutout are looking more and more likely. The Euro is forecasting a large area of shear that will smother a substantial portion of the basin, the 384 hour GFS has been effectively dead for weeks and has shown nothing but hostile conditions, and extremely dry air pervades the eastern and central Atlantic. Just a few weeks ago, 95L and 96L had decent model support yet completely failed to develop. All models are intent on developing multiple hurricanes in the EPAC over the next couple of weeks.  Meanwhile we are grasping at straws looking at patchy areas of vorticity and and ensemble members over 7 days out for even the faintest signs of life.

I'm still expecting a "switch flip" at some point so to speak, and I'm fully prepared to eat crow, but I'm astonished agencies have actually been raising their forecasts. Nothing in the past month has been indicative of an active season, and El Nino seasons are not known for being backloaded.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Quite an active 12z EPS run. 

  This is about as active as it gets on the 12Z EPS with 4 different waves having a good # of members with TCG:

1) the AEW now near or just off Africa that has resulted in the strongest activity for many days going back to Aug 4th with some members threatening the CONUS 8/23+
 

2) some members have TCG in the GOM ahead of the aforementioned AEW 8/19-20 with 5+ TS and 1 H

3) & 4) each of the 2 AEWs following the #1 AEW, one coming off 8/16 largely recurving early and one coming off 8/20 with most still moving westward at 240

[WxWatcher007]

24 minutes ago, GaWx said:

  This is about as active as it gets on the 12Z EPS with 4 different waves having a good # of members with TCG:

1) the AEW now near or just off Africa that has resulted in the strongest activity for many days going back to Aug 4th with some members threatening the CONUS 8/23+
 

2) some members have TCG in the GOM ahead of the aforementioned AEW 8/19-20 with 5+ TS and 1 H

3) & 4) each of the 2 AEWs following the #1 AEW, one coming off 8/16 largely recurving early and one coming off 8/20 with most still moving westward at 240

Plenty of opportunities but one has to produce. Still very interesting that the usually bearish euro leads the way in saying the basin comes to life in the next week. Not really sure what to think.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Plenty of opportunities but one has to produce. Still very interesting that the usually bearish euro leads the way in saying the basin comes to life in the next week. Not really sure what to think.

The 18Z GEFS is very active in/near the SE US 8/23-8 largely due to the E Atlantic AEW. Based on the ensemble consensus, I'm thinking 2-3 TCG Aug 18-31 with a lean toward 3. Shutout chances low imo. The EPS a year ago was very quiet...like night and day!

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I don't know what site images are from, the specific days, or anything else that would usually be part of a map legend, but he seems one of the better amateurs on Twitter.  Main point is the arrival of El Nino shear may be delayed.

 

 

[GaWx]

The 0Z GFS has a H in the GOM 8/26-8 moving slowly W. That makes 6 GFS runs out of 53 (11%) since 7/31 with a H on the run:

-7/31 12Z: hit SC 8/16
-8/3 6Z: hit MX/TX border 8/16
-8/6 0Z: MDR 8/18-21
-8/9 18Z: just off SC 8/25
-8/11 0Z: just off LA 8/26
-8/13 0Z: GOM 8/26-8

 The last three on this list are all from the AEW now in the E Atlantic, the same one the EPS has been harping on since August 4th.

[ldub23]

 

 

 

 

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

The 0Z GFS has a H in the GOM 8/26-8 moving slowly W. That makes 6 GFS runs out of 53 (11%) since 7/31 with a H on the run:

-7/31 12Z: hit SC 8/16
-8/3 6Z: hit MX/TX border 8/16
-8/6 0Z: MDR 8/18-21
-8/9 18Z: just off SC 8/25
-8/11 0Z: just off LA 8/26
-8/13 0Z: GOM 8/26-8

 The last three on this list are all from the AEW now in the E Atlantic, the same one the EPS has been harping on since August 4th.

You didnt  mention it was  on its way to cat5. Im skeptical though because there  is  nothing  behind  it which says the  pattern hasnt  changed.

 

 

 

 

It will be really hard to get a hurricane  in the GOM anytime soon with the East  pac  on fire  like this. 

 

[GaWx]

1. Today's 0Z CFS develops only 1 of the 4 possibilities now being watched.

2. Today's 0Z EPS while still quite active isn't quite as active as yesterday's 12Z with the AEW now in the E MDR. And it is still much more active than those from the same time last year. Like night and day.

3. Today's 6Z GFS is the 7th since 7/31 with a H, this one appearing to form from a southern extension of the wave now in the E MDR. Thus it looks to me like at least the 4th GFS run with a H from this AEW. Also, today's 0Z and 6Z GFS are the first consecutive runs since 7/31 with a H. Prior to this, the closest that two GFS runs since 7/31 had a H was five runs apart:

-7/31 12Z: hit SC 8/16
-8/3 6Z: hit MX/TX border 8/16
-8/6 0Z: MDR 8/18-21
-8/9 18Z: just off SC 8/25
-8/11 0Z: just off LA 8/26
-8/13 0Z: GOM 8/26-8
-8/13 6Z: GOM 8/25-6 that hits MS 8/26-7

[tiger_deF]

49 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. Today's 0Z CFS develops only 1 of the 4 possibilities now being watched.

If the CFS is correct verbatim the season outlook is pretty grim. Two total storms from now to mid-September, right past the peak of the season.

 

EDIT: SAL forecasts show the entire basin completely smothered in dry air a couple of days before the bell ring

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I consider the GFS a 'super control' ensemble member past hour 240.  It is showing what could happen in ten to 16 days.  Op runs shuuld be like CMC and Euro, 10 days.  Takeaway for me is the tropics get active in another ~10 days, several waves that could develop, and then the season shuts down less than a month later as El Nino takes control with increased Caribbean shear (I don't understand which image is which, scales, or where they came from, but the Danny Morris post above that the Nino like shear, beginning of month shown to start early September, is pushed back to mid September).

 

I had to check, and yes, somebody posted the 384 simulated IR of the model's Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricane approaching Louisiana on Twitter.  Maybe another reason the model should run to 10 days, the freed up computer resources, maybe run the model at a finer resolution and use more complex physics and fewer simplifying assumptions.  And fewer scary images on Twitter.

 

[GaWx]

42 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

If the CFS is correct verbatim the season outlook is pretty grim. Two total storms from now to mid-September, right past the peak of the season.

 

EDIT: SAL forecasts show the entire basin completely smothered in dry air a couple of days before the bell ring

1. I agree about the CFS run and the near term SAL.

2. Nevertheless, it is just one CFS run that inactive recently and it is an inferior model.

3. This map of SAL is for only for three days from now. SAL tends to decline rather rapidly past mid August. We'll see. Much of the EPS activity occurs well after the time of this map. Also, the TCGs of the last four GFS runs with TCG occur 9-10 days after this map, a near eternity during this period that ramps up rapidly climowise. I'm currently favoring the last week or so of August to be active with 2 TCGs just during that period a good possibility.

Edit: 4. I have for the entire season felt that the hyper forecasts for 2023 are well overdone. Just look at my 2023 season forecast contest entry to see what I was thinking at the start. But that doesn't mean I think it will remain dead the rest of this month like was the case in 2022. Obviously I don't think that as per my recent posts. I think 2-3 TCGs this month, mainly during or just before the last week. That would be nothing like the zero TCGs of last August.

[GaWx]

For the first time recently, the UKMET has Atlantic TCG (favoring recurving from the MDR):

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 16.7N 42.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.08.2023 144 16.8N 42.7W 1009 29
0000UTC 20.08.2023 156 17.1N 43.1W 1008 31
1200UTC 20.08.2023 168 17.8N 43.8W 1007 33

[GaWx]

 The 12Z GEFS has 6 hurricanes out of 31 members in the GOM or NW Caribbean on Aug 25th. Keep this in mind:

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Mid August and the GFS tries a couple of times, but fails, no TCs through 16 days.  Even CMC is two weak systems at 10 days, down from 4 yesterday. OTOH, CFS weekly shear in the Caribbean doesn't look Nino-ish.

 

A few GFS develop weak cyclones in the E Gulf in 5 days,  I don't know if that is the little wave E of the Bahamas, or maybe something on the tail end of the trough/weak cold front.  Wishcasting that, a 1007 mb depression into Texas would be just what the doctor ordered after 7 weeks of no rain and temps near/above 100F for a month.

Ensembles like one of the freshly offshore or soon to be offshore waves (see picture), even if the op doesn't, maybe that gets us one named storm by this time next week.

 

New post while I was typing, inspires the question, is there a wave on satellite that is the seed of the Gulf activity?  Some of the TT ensembles look to develop something in situ in the Gulf, more move something out of the Caribbean, starting near S. America, and I tend to have issues with the GFS seeming to develop things coming off South America.  I don't know why, the resolution is low to begin with and doesn't change, but the ensembles get funny, IMO, after about 12 days.  In its defense, Canadian ensembles start liking the Caribbean, then the Gulf and off Florida, past 10 days.