2023 Atlantic Hurricane season

[ldub23]

3 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Verbatim, those 2 lows will be struggling bigly with dry ait.

Thats why its  just a SIGN of  life. Like the  last few  years  nothing  will be easy to develop.

[GaWx]

46 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Verbatim, those 2 lows will be struggling bigly with dry ait.  August 21 to Sept 4, the Euro weeklies like along and off ECUSA, maybe something changes.  I watched a Twitter video, a Savannah, GA TV met.  He thinks the season will pick up in 2 weeks, but he based that mostly on climatology.  The season 'should' pick up because most seasons do.  I'm not sure what is supposed to change.  Dry air doesn't seem like it is going anywhere soon.

 Do you happen to have the link to that met's Twitter video? TIA

[NorthHillsWx]

Going to have to be a nuclear September to have anything close to CSU’s prediction come true. This looks like a repeat of last August’s setup in the Atlantic, but worse ENSO for development. Honestly not sure we crack 100 ACE if the only windows for development are right off the east coast or sub tropics. No one’s seen any switch flipping in any modeling and any uptick in long range activity either evaporates or gets punted.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Do you happen to have the link to that met's Twitter video? TIA

It took me a few minutes. they seem to allude to the weeklies, but mostly it should get busy soon because this is the time of the year it should be about to get busy.  30 minutes.

 

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Going to have to be a nuclear September to have anything close to CSU’s prediction come true. This looks like a repeat of last August’s setup in the Atlantic, but worse ENSO for development. Honestly not sure we crack 100 ACE if the only windows for development are right off the east coast or sub tropics. No one’s seen any switch flipping in any modeling and any uptick in long range activity either evaporates or gets punted.

I don’t think it’ll be that bad, but I usually love posting about tropical this time of year and I just can’t because it’s legit dead—with plenty of solid waves.

Not much to say other than I think normal to slightly above still (but slipping by the day) seems in the realm of reasonable possibilities, even though I’d go below normal at this point.

[etudiant]

10 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Going to have to be a nuclear September to have anything close to CSU’s prediction come true. This looks like a repeat of last August’s setup in the Atlantic, but worse ENSO for development. Honestly not sure we crack 100 ACE if the only windows for development are right off the east coast or sub tropics. No one’s seen any switch flipping in any modeling and any uptick in long range activity either evaporates or gets punted.

Given that SSTs in the Atlantic are unusually high, is it possible that the hurricane season will be extended, so that October becomes the 2023 September?

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, etudiant said:

Given that SSTs in the Atlantic are unusually high, is it possible that the hurricane season will be extended, so that October becomes the 2023 September?

Unlikely. With El Niño strengthening into the fall this was widely viewed as a front loaded season. It would have to strongly diverge strongly from ENSO to see an extended season

[MANDA]

At this point I'm rooting for a 0/0/0 August just because.  SST's are not going to save the day on their own.  While an August shutout is not likely at this point it is not too hard to envision.  I agree, September will have to be off the charts to get to CSU's numbers. 

Getting boring.

[ldub23]

59 minutes ago, MANDA said:

At this point I'm rooting for a 0/0/0 August just because.  SST's are not going to save the day on their own.  While an August shutout is not likely at this point it is not too hard to envision.  I agree, September will have to be off the charts to get to CSU's numbers. 

Getting boring.

More signs

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Euro ensembles suggest an uptick in 7-10 days, but that has felt a little Charlie Brown and the football. 

 

Near term and lower prob, zero GFS ensemble support, rather tepid Euro ensembles, a very weak wave now near 65W becomes a bit better defined in 3 1/2-4 days near W Cuba, maybe finds a small window of shear and dry air, TD or TS for N. Mexico or Deep South Texas.  

[ldub23]

7 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Euro ensembles suggest an uptick in 7-10 days, but that has felt a little Charlie Brown and the football. 

 

Near term and lower prob, zero GFS ensemble support, rather tepid Euro ensembles, a very weak wave now near 65W becomes a bit better defined in 3 1/2-4 days near W Cuba, maybe finds a small window of shear and dry air, TD or TS for N. Mexico or Deep South Texas.  

The actual tropics are never favorable anymore whether  its  el nino, la nina  or  lo neutro

[Kevin Reilly]

3 hours ago, MANDA said:

At this point I'm rooting for a 0/0/0 August just because.  SST's are not going to save the day on their own.  While an August shutout is not likely at this point it is not too hard to envision.  I agree, September will have to be off the charts to get to CSU's numbers. 

Getting boring.

Here is a question then?  Tropical Cyclones are a means to evacuate the building up of heat along and just north of the Equator what will happen in the northern hemisphere come the later fall and winter months with all the record trapped heat air and water?  I am going to assume very wild weather events on the horizon October 2023-March 2024.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

16 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

The actual tropics are never favorable anymore whether  its  el nino, la nina  or  lo neutro

Or perhaps (I mentioned an HRD scientist's theory of distortion of Hadley Cell by warming higher latitudes and wave breaking) the heart of the season isn't ASO anymore, more like SON or more likely just SO.  The difference this year and last year, which became quite active in September, is the likely effects of an El Nino that is strengthening.  Neutral or weak cool ENSO 2024, September is probably not so hostile to TCs.  I do think the 160 ACE and 18 named storms aren't happening.  This year.

 

But anyway, my previous post is the very unlikely chance of Gulf development next week.  Not an ACE generator, but maybe at least South Texas gets some rain as a 2011 Texas fire season becomes more likely.  I think Houston has a real shot of breaking the 2011 24 consecutive days AOA 100F this year.  2011 was almost California like in property destruction from wildfires.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

9 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Here is a question then?  Tropical Cyclones are a means to evacuate the building up of heat along and just north of the Equator what will happen in the northern hemisphere come the later fall and winter months with all the record trapped heat air and water?  I am going to assume very wild weather events on the horizon October 2023-March 2024.

More Autumn/Winter tropical cyclones (of limited intensity because late October through January storms that form past the point of when conditions are favorable for stronger storms).  And heat transfer from the tropics/subtropics from higher dewpoint/theta-e air from the tropic/subtropics into winter and spring storms.  If winter tornado outbreaks becoming more common is a definition of 'wild weather', it might be happening already.  December Kentucky tornado outbreaks, January having the strongest tornado in Harris County (South Houston/Pasadena) in 30 years.

[Normandy]

11 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

More Autumn/Winter tropical cyclones (of limited intensity because late October through January storms that form past the point of when conditions are favorable for stronger storms).  And heat transfer from the tropics/subtropics from higher dewpoint/theta-e air from the tropic/subtropics into winter and spring storms.  If winter tornado outbreaks becoming more common is a definition of 'wild weather', it might be happening already.  December Kentucky tornado outbreaks, January having the strongest tornado in Harris County (South Houston/Pasadena) in 30 years.

My running theory is that as waters warm and stay warm later into the winter months, nor’easters will start to become more powerful and damaging (basically superstorm Sandy’s become more frequent) .  Fun speculation during these dog days of hurricane summer 

[GaWx]

 For the 40 GFS runs since July 31st, an unusually low (for this time of year) 10% of them (four runs) have had a hurricane in the Atlantic basin at any point during the 384 hours (all have been within the fantasy range) with the latest run being just the first Happy Hour run with one:

-7/31 12Z: hit SC 8/16
-8/3 6Z: hit MX/TX border 8/16
-8/6 0Z: MDR 8/18-21
-8/9 18Z: just off SC 8/25

[WxWatcher007]

37 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 For the 40 GFS runs since July 31st, an unusually low 10% of them (four runs) have had a hurricane in the Atlantic basin at any point during the 384 hours (all have been within the fantasy range) with the latest run being just the first Happy Hour run with one:

-7/31 12Z: hit SC 8/16
-8/3 6Z: hit MX/TX border 8/16
-8/6 0Z: MDR 8/18-21
-8/9 18Z: just off SC 8/25

Definitely odd to see the Euro more bullish in the long range, but I do think we’re starting to see signs of life right around when climo begins to take off ~Aug 20.

Delayed to be sure as I thought late July/early August would have a window, but I don’t think we get through the month with a shutout.

[ldub23]

7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Definitely odd to see the Euro more bullish in the long range, but I do think we’re starting to see signs of life right around when climo begins to take off ~Aug 20.

Delayed to be sure as I thought late July/early August would have a window, but I don’t think we get through the month with a shutout.

[NorthHillsWx]

5 hours ago, ldub23 said:

This is running into a wall of shear on that model. There should be the climo uptick in waves coming off the African coast but the wall of shear from the TUTT will make life difficult even for the strongest waves moving over the central MDR. GFS shows a better shear environment in this range though it disagrees with its ensembles, which hold the TUTT strong through the period. One thing that does bode well for maybe an uptick in activity in mid-late month period is the eastern Atlantic seems to moisten up considerably. Assuming some well formed waves exit the African coast they should have a decent chance of developing right off the bat, even if they get sheared apart entering the central Atlantic. 

[NorthHillsWx]

I still think our best shot this season is going to be homegrown systems from decaying cold fronts. With the eastern trough being a somewhat prominent feature, this should allow fronts to make it to, and decay over the gulf/southwestern Atlantic. El Niño climo typically favors this setup for development. As we get into September, more and more fronts make it into the gulf/off the Florida coast. That is when and where I think this hurricane season picks up 

[ldub23]

17 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I still think our best shot this season is going to be homegrown systems from decaying cold fronts. With the eastern trough being a somewhat prominent feature, this should allow fronts to make it to, and decay over the gulf/southwestern Atlantic. El Niño climo typically favors this setup for development. As we get into September, more and more fronts make it into the gulf/off the Florida coast. That is when and where I think this hurricane season picks up 

The  problem with that  is an  eastern trof  kills homegrown systems. All you  can ever  get  is  weak, strung  out  systems moving swiftly  Northeast with no chance to do anything. The  pattern has to reverse to a ridge  over the  nw ATL that  locks  in. JB is  implying that saying the  Northeast  will avg  2-4 degrees  above  normal aug20-sept 30. We will see.

 

 

The American Storm

 

@BigJoeBastardi

 

Hottest weather of the summer season likely in big NE cities Aug 20-Sep. 30. 2-4 above average in that time in a summer that has largely been near normal. I am sure we will hear about that too, once it shows up

 

 

4:09 PM · Aug 9, 2023

·

2,811

Views

 

2.4 above  normal implies a west atlantic ridge that would trap a  developing  low and  allow  it to develop unlike the trof we  have  now.

[WxWatcher007]

40 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I still think our best shot this season is going to be homegrown systems from decaying cold fronts. With the eastern trough being a somewhat prominent feature, this should allow fronts to make it to, and decay over the gulf/southwestern Atlantic. El Niño climo typically favors this setup for development. As we get into September, more and more fronts make it into the gulf/off the Florida coast. That is when and where I think this hurricane season picks up 

In addition to decaying fronts, I do think we will see a couple of the larger tropical waves that struggle in the MDR find a more favorable environment in the western Atlantic. 

I also think that once the stability issues break in the eastern MDR we see an uptick in development there, before most of those systems get recurved or shredded by the TUTTs that will be lurking. It looks like the eastern MDR heating up is about 6-10 days away. 

Unlike last week, it looks like the signal for activity is moving up in time rather than getting consistently pushed back on the ensembles. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Joe Bastardi is not the best follow.  Andy Hazelton and the posters he responds to tend to have more insight, IMO.  JB was ok when I subscribed to AccuWeather, he talks less weather and more politics now, and the weather posts seem designed for clicks.  JB is a fine follow if you want to believe a sudden increase in undersea volcanism explains record warm ocean temperatures.

 

With 3 or 4 of the 50 (or is it 51, 50 perturbed members and a control run?) still showing a TD (pressures above 1005 mb) into the Gulf early next week, I'm going to watch the one thing that has a chance, albeit miniscule, for a TC in the next week.  It feels weenie to follow such a low odds thing, but I'm old enough for the US Olympic Teams 'Miracle on Ice' against the USSR's Red Army Team.

[WxWatcher007]

48 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

With 3 or 4 of the 50 (or is it 51, 50 perturbed members and a control run?) still showing a TD (pressures above 1005 mb) into the Gulf early next week, I'm going to watch the one thing that has a chance, albeit miniscule, for a TC in the next week.  It feels weenie to follow such a low odds thing, but I'm old enough for the US Olympic Teams 'Miracle on Ice' against the USSR's Red Army Team.

Noticed it too late last night. It looks like dry air is more of an inhibitor than shear and 06z looked a little more organized entering the Gulf than 00z.

Would need a lot to develop but as long as it’s convectively active it’s worth a casual eye?

[WxWatcher007]

Doubling down?

[MANDA]

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Doubling down?

The fox is in charge of the hen house so depending on what they decide to name it is possible. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Doubling down?

NS 14-21, H 6-11, MH 2-5 this forecast vs

NS 12-17, H 5-9, MH 1-4 prior forecast

Normal 14/7/3.

 So, higher numbers with near to above normal activity vs being centered near normal in the prior forecast. There's an even wider spread for NS/H. They really have quite the wide spread in this making it difficult to end up wrong.

[NorthHillsWx]

50 minutes ago, GaWx said:

NS 14-21, H 6-11, MH 2-5 this forecast vs

NS 12-17, H 5-9, MH 1-4 prior forecast

Normal 14/7/3.

 So, higher numbers with near to above normal activity vs being centered near normal in the prior forecast. There's an even wider spread for NS/H. They really have quite the wide spread in this making it difficult to end up wrong.

Not exactly sticking their necks out with that forecast haha. A spread in numbers from normal to way above in every category. 

[NorthHillsWx]

It just seems unreasonable at this time to put 11 hurricanes on any forecast this year. It’s mid August and we have had 1 (barely) hurricane with no sign of any forming through late month. Getting 10 storms in September/October alone would be busy but 10 hurricanes then sounds ludicrous based on what we’ve seen to this point. Someone can save this post to remind me I said this when that happens but that’s a comical forecast to me though I guess the point is the median lies with an above average season when the dust settles 

[MANDA]

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It just seems unreasonable at this time to put 11 hurricanes on any forecast this year. It’s mid August and we have had 1 (barely) hurricane with no sign of any forming through late month. Getting 10 storms in September/October alone would be busy but 10 hurricanes then sounds ludicrous based on what we’ve seen to this point. Someone can save this post to remind me I said this when that happens but that’s a comical forecast to me though I guess the point is the median lies with an above average season when the dust settles 

Totally agree.  They can take great liberty on what they name but hurricanes and majors are harder to fiddle with.