2023 Atlantic Hurricane season

[ldub23]

14 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

As long as fronts can stall and decay E of Florida, ECUSA is not 100% safe.  No model support for today's Bahamas blob, but it probably isn't the last Bahamas blob of the year.

 

  Even an MDR system could miss the trough. Last two weeks of Euro weeklies have a >5% TC chance along ECUSA.

The  pattern will have to change to a  locked  in high over the NW ATL to see development  of  interest in the SW ATL.  JB must  have seen the weeklies as  he  is saying the east  coast will face threats in mid to late Aug. Luckily the GFS is  much weaker this AM with the recurver.

[GaWx]

 Look how much cooling of the extreme warmth of the SSTs shown by the buoys in/near shallow FL Bay occurred between late Monday afternoon's highs and this morning's lows just from a weak surface trough causing a significant increase in showers (the most rain in weeks) and much less sunshine (these are SSTs (F), not air temperatures):

Manatee Bay: from 101 to 84

Johnson Key: from 98 to 79

 

Murray Key: from 99 to 81

 

 In contrast the Key West buoy, which is in deeper waters and thus has a much lower intraday range that is often only ~1F, cooled much less (from 92.3 to 89.6) and is still very warm:

[Bhs1975]

 Look how much cooling of the extreme warmth of the SSTs shown by the buoys in/near shallow FL Bay occurred between late Monday afternoon's highs and this morning's lows just from a weak surface trough causing a significant increase in showers (the most rain in weeks) and much less sunshine (these are SSTs (F), not air temperatures):
Manatee Bay: from 101 to 84


Johnson Key: from 98 to 79

 
Murray Key: from 99 to 81

 
 In contrast the Key West buoy, which is in deeper waters and thus has a much lower intraday range that is often only ~1F, cooled much less (from 92.3 to 89.6) and is still very warm:

This is why canes lose their punch when they are slow to move over shelf waters.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Bhs1975 said:

This is why canes lose their punch when they are slow to move over shelf waters.

 Indeed. More on the Marathon Bay buoy's 101.1F from the link below:

 The record for the Manatee Bay site is 102 degrees. It was set on Aug. 15, 2017. Going further back, Zierden said the site recorded a temperature of 100 degrees in 2010.

"Keep in mind that the observations in Manatee Bay are in shallow water in a closed-off cove with dark seagrass on the bottom," Zierden said. "I would not consider them a "sea surface temperature," as that implies open ocean."

https://www.news-press.com/story/weather/2023/07/26/record-water-temperatures-in-florida-not-unprecedented-manatee-bay-climate-center-keys-everglades/70468485007/

[jconsor]

Regarding the Bahamas/FL system... yes, pressures are high and this will need some time to "cook" before developing.  However, it going just inland next day or two is not a guarantee against a TD or weak TS developing. We have seen such systems develop even with little model support a few times in the recent past.

There is another brief window for development early next week as it heads back offshore and passes near the Gulf Stream: 
 

 

[ldub23]

5 hours ago, jconsor said:

Regarding the Bahamas/FL system... yes, pressures are high and this will need some time to "cook" before developing.  However, it going just inland next day or two is not a guarantee against a TD or weak TS developing. We have seen such systems develop even with little model support a few times in the recent past.

There is another brief window for development early next week as it heads back offshore and passes near the Gulf Stream: 
 

 

You are right about the area  near FLA. A  little  more time and  it  might  do something. After the front  passes Sunday it will be  interesting to see  if the  pattern has  changed to a  1954 like  pattern.

 

[GaWx]

11 hours ago, ldub23 said:

You are right about the area  near FLA. A  little  more time and  it  might  do something. After the front  passes Sunday it will be  interesting to see  if the  pattern has  changed to a  1954 like  pattern.

 

 There is a tight little circulation center (easily seen on radar) just offshore from Amelia Island where SSTs are ~85F moving NNW toward the lower GA coast, but it is more mid level than low level from what I've read. One NWS discussion mentioned that this is in association with the TUTT (see below). Surface pressures are still pretty high (1017 mb+) and surface winds are light. The highest wind I could find in gusts is 16 knots and that is at an offshore buoy.

 From Jacksonville NWS office earlier this morning:
AT THE SURFACE, AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL   
WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UP THE NE FL COAST AND INTO THE   
ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, A TROPICAL UPPER   
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX WILL   
ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA.

--------------

From Melbourne ~40 minutes ago:
ISSUED AT 924 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2023  
  
IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED OVERHEAD YESTERDAY, DEEP   
S/SE FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS MORNING.   
IN FACT, THAT FEATURE HAS ACTUALLY CLOSED OFF INTO A WEAK   
SURFACE LOW NEAR JACKSONVILLE.

[GaWx]

On 7/26/2023 at 6:37 PM, Kevin Reilly said:

I would say that this system will stay away from the East Coast looks to be quite protected in the current pattern and the pattern that is projected to come to the East Coast.

 It is now looking likely that July of 2023 will join 1997 to make history for an already moderate El Niño. Currently, the only El Nino with a +1.0+ JJA ONI having 2+ July storms (based on time of TCG) on record is 1997, which had three.

  The 0Z Euro was the strongest run yet with the mid-MDR disturbance and now the 6Z Euro is even stronger as of the end of its run at hour 90. That could easily result in a TD by July 31st that subsequently gives us Emily.

 If that's not enough, there's a slight chance that when the disturbance now just offshore NE FL recurves back offshore the E coast that it becomes a TC (as @jconsordiscussed) before July is finished though that could be after 7/31 should it occur.

[WxWatcher007]

I kind of like the idea of two NS next week @GaWx

EPS hints at it. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Double the usual expected ACE for the week of 8-21 to 8-28 per today's Euro weeklies.  TC probs, the weeklies see 96L but aren't seeing the EC sub-tropical development the ensembles clearly see.  Maybe it does see it in the rainfall anomalies, but not in the TC percentages.  About the week of 8-21, perhaps hints of Florida being affected in rainfall anomalies.

 

[ldub23]

4 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Double the usual expected ACE for the week of 8-21 to 8-28 per today's Euro weeklies.  TC probs, the weeklies see 96L but aren't seeing the EC sub-tropical development the ensembles clearly see.  Maybe it does see it in the rainfall anomalies, but not in the TC percentages.  About the week of 8-21, perhaps hints of Florida being affected in rainfall anomalies.

 

Looks  interesting

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Nothing on the Euro or GFS ensembles after 96L and the possible off the Carolinas sub-tropical system.  If anything develops 10-15 days out, I'd guess it'd be subtropical.  8/21 to 8/28, a small signal on the Euro weeklies for something off the ECUSA.

 

Speaking of 96L, SHIPS is as optimistic as any intensity guidance gets, and that is barely Cat 1 intensity.

[ldub23]

19 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Nothing on the Euro or GFS ensembles after 96L and the possible off the Carolinas sub-tropical system.  If anything develops 10-15 days out, I'd guess it'd be subtropical.  8/21 to 8/28, a small signal on the Euro weeklies for something off the ECUSA.

 

Speaking of 96L, SHIPS is as optimistic as any intensity guidance gets, and that is barely Cat 1 intensity.

Except  for 2 weak lows GFS is dead thru the  middle  of AUG. Is the season ever going to get started?

[GaWx]

  There's a very slight chance (~10%?) that 96L and 97L will both become TDs by tomorrow evening and also subsequently get named. If so, July 2023 would tie July 1997 at three for the most named storms on record with TCG in July in El Niño going back to the last 50+ El Niño seasons.

 And arguably, the 12Z Euro at least gets close to the two TDs by tomorrow evening.

[ldub23]

Wasnt  1997 deader than dead? But to be optimistic JB  is saying  it again. WATCH OUT mid-atlantic

 

 

[Kevin Reilly]

9 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Except  for 2 weak lows GFS is dead thru the  middle  of AUG. Is the season ever going to get started?

Yes, in November in the Gulf that season will last until January.

[Normandy]

I think we got a TC out of 97L

[GaWx]

97L won't become a TC per this, which says it has become extratropical due to merging with a cold front:

AL, 97, 2023073112, , BEST, 0, 359N, 676W, 30, 1006, EX

[NorthHillsWx]

18 hours ago, GaWx said:

  There's a very slight chance (~10%?) that 96L and 97L will both become TDs by tomorrow evening and also subsequently get named. If so, July 2023 would tie July 1997 at three for the most named storms on record with TCG in July in El Niño going back to the last 50+ El Niño seasons.

 And arguably, the 12Z Euro at least gets close to the two TDs by tomorrow evening.

Doesn’t look like either develop before the end of the day now

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

15 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Wasnt  1997 deader than dead? But to be optimistic JB  is saying  it again. WATCH OUT mid-atlantic

 

 

Euro weeklies the last week do seem to see an enhanced risk the end of August along and offshore ECUSA.  Weekly 500 hPa forecast Not shown) for that time, the trough is over the Central/Eastern Lakes down into the Appalachians, with higher than normal heights in the Canadian Maritimes.

[ldub23]

21 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Euro weeklies the last week do seem to see an enhanced risk the end of August along and offshore ECUSA.  Weekly 500 hPa forecast Not shown) for that time, the trough is over the Central/Eastern Lakes down into the Appalachians, with higher than normal heights in the Canadian Maritimes.

High pressure  in the Candian maritimes would be what we need to get anything  past  70w or  for  inclose development. 

[Normandy]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

97L won't become a TC per this, which says it has become extratropical due to merging with a cold front:

AL, 97, 2023073112, , BEST, 0, 359N, 676W, 30, 1006, EX

People agree with the NHC in this? That looks like a TC to me

[bigtenfan]

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Euro weeklies the last week do seem to see an enhanced risk the end of August along and offshore ECUSA.  Weekly 500 hPa forecast Not shown) for that time, the trough is over the Central/Eastern Lakes down into the Appalachians, with higher than normal heights in the Canadian Maritimes.

Florida is notably not included in even a 5% chance. I hope that it is right.

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, Normandy said:

People agree with the NHC in this? That looks like a TC to me

Frontal low. Why  waste a  name for a  low  on a front?

 

Looks  like JB nailed it again. The west atl is  lighting  up. It forms from a  non tropical low east  of  bermuda. 

 

[Normandy]

It’s less about name wasting and more about consistency.  97L to my untrained eye looks like more than a frontal low.  I’ve seen stuff like this named before.  Very deep convection and obvious LLC.  
 

 

[Kevin Reilly]

51 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Frontal low. Why  waste a  name for a  low  on a front?

 

Looks  like JB nailed it again. The west atl is  lighting  up. It forms from a  non tropical low east  of  bermuda. 

 

This same look occurred about two weeks ago the result was a cold front coming down from the great lakes and a wave of low pressure exiting the Cape Hatteras Coastline moving ENE out to sea on Sunday morning we shall see. Hour 384 by the way good luck.

[GaWx]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located about 650 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands 
have become less organized since last night.  However, the system is 
producing a small area of gale-force winds well to the east of the 
center.  Environmental conditions still appear somewhat conducive 
for a tropical depression or tropical storm to develop during the 
next couple of days while the system moves northwestward and then 
northward at 10 to 15 mph over the central subtropical Atlantic.  
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can 
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[GaWx]

 I'd bring down the 96L TCG chances further down as I couldn't find a single 12Z global model supporting TCG as support has been lost. That includes the UKMET posted below. Of the hurricane models at 12Z, about all I could find supporting it is the TS shown tomorrow by HMON.

12Z UKMET:
ROPICAL STORM 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 53.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.07.2023 0 22.5N 53.2W 1016 30
0000UTC 01.08.2023 12 CEASED TRACKING

[ldub23]

This  is why the ATL tropics will have a really  hard time getting started. Once again we  have a  low  of  non tropical origin from a front  off the east  coast  move east across the atlantic. It will kill any chance of the season geting started as anything to its south in the MDR  has  no chance.

 

 

Looks  like the  lights  have  gone  out  on the NW ATL. JB backtracking as things are deader than dead. SST's are the  least  important  factor.

 

 

The American Storm

 

@BigJoeBastardi

 

Until the WPAC calms down, the Atlantic is not likely to rev up. Slow moving major typhoon weakens in a few days as it turns away from China but may still be on the charts 10 days from now

 

 

6:14 PM · Jul 31, 2023

·

2,220

Views

 

 

 

 

[NorthHillsWx]

96L was another swing and a miss for mid range modeling. Too much shear