GaWx Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Fwiw, 12Z Euro says “Ridge Over Troubled Water” part two late next week with a second big (actually stronger) NE US surface high: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-fast®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2023092012&fh=216 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 18z GFS weenie run bringing a major hurricane into Norfolk at a right angle, front right quadrant going into Chesapeake Bay... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 8 minutes ago, cptcatz said: 18z GFS weenie run bringing a major hurricane into Norfolk at a right angle, front right quadrant going into Chesapeake Bay... Stalls it right on the coast, too, Florence-style. Yuck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 47 minutes ago, cptcatz said: 18z GFS weenie run bringing a major hurricane into Norfolk at a right angle, front right quadrant going into Chesapeake Bay... Yea Sandy Redux for sure right just further south. We shall see very impressive though that would cause major problems! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 5 hours ago, GaWx said: Fwiw, 12Z Euro says “Ridge Over Troubled Water” part two late next week with a second big (actually stronger) NE US surface high: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-fast®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2023092012&fh=216 Is JB copying my posts? I beat him to the punch by 4 hours : I think that another home brew under the next big NE high late next week is much more likely than the 18Z GFS idea of that storm coming all the way to the CONUS. There’s no room for both and the 18Z GFS is an extreme outlier considering its own ensemble, other models, and climo (lateness for that kind of track). A home brew under a big and strong high OTOH wouldn’t be. Of course neither may happen. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 We have had at least 1 active storm every day since 8/20. So for a month straight, today, the Atlantic has had an active storm. That’s incredible 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 12 hours ago, GaWx said: The 12Z UKMET dropped this from becoming a TC. UK goes through 168. For the 2nd run in a row, the UKMET (0Z) is too weak for this late in the season MDR storm to be classified a TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 6 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: We have had at least 1 active storm every day since 8/20. So far a month straight, today, the Atlantic has had an active storm. That’s incredible Where has Ldub been?????? I guess he lost faith after his 0/0/0 august forecast. Expect his return after Nigel goes extra trop and we have a brief break. I think this season is a big sign of what’s to come in the future. Record warm OHC overwhelms traditional teleconnections. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Both areas, the MDR wave and the east coast system, are looking juicy this morning. Surprising neither are invests yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 8 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Where has Ldub been?????? I guess he lost faith after his 0/0/0 august forecast. Expect his return after Nigel goes extra trop and we have a brief break. I think this season is a big sign of what’s to come in the future. Record warm OHC overwhelms traditional teleconnections. This is the most super interesting thing to me too. If El Niño is no longer a hurricane suppressant……then what are we looking at in terms of future hurricane seasons? What does a La Niña look like with record warmth? What does neutral look like?Would love met thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 90L now up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 6 hours ago, Normandy said: This is the most super interesting thing to me too. If El Niño is no longer a hurricane suppressant……then what are we looking at in terms of future hurricane seasons? What does a La Niña look like with record warmth? What does neutral look like?Would love met thoughts. Nino tends to suppress more over the Caribbean and GOM than it does out in the MDR or particularly the subtropical Atlantic. It's just that there's been a big expansion of the 26C isotherm both spatially and at depth over the last 40y (and especially the last few years) in these areas where a Nino won't really help stop development. Obviously if you don't have a mod-strong Nino in place helping shear part of the basin, then this leaves open more area over time to higher SSTs and OHC. ENSO isn't the only game in town though, and changes to static stability via SAL intrusions and the West African Monsoon are important too. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 12Z UKMET, like the 12Z GFS and even the 12Z ICON to a lesser extent, has ridge over troubled waters part 2 in about a week: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 31.1N 80.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 29.09.2023 156 30.8N 80.4W 1005 34 1200UTC 29.09.2023 168 32.2N 78.1W 1005 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tallis Rockwell Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Bizarre hurricane season, Hyperactive Atlantic with an almost dead GOM and Caribbean barring Imelda. Absolutely crazy clash of so many different climate factors. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tallis Rockwell Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Just now, Tallis Rockwell said: Bizarre hurricane season, Hyperactive Atlantic with an almost dead GOM and Caribbean barring Imelda. Absolutely crazy clash of so many different climate factors. Idalia, Too many I-storms this decade! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 6 hours ago, Tallis Rockwell said: Bizarre hurricane season, Hyperactive Atlantic with an almost dead GOM and Caribbean barring Imelda. Absolutely crazy clash of so many different climate factors. Interesting because if you asked somewhat what to expect with an El Nino and record hot Atlantic, that's exactly what you'd expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 2 hours ago, cptcatz said: Interesting because if you asked somewhat what to expect with an El Nino and record hot Atlantic, that's exactly what you'd expect. So why was it not prominently chosen in the various hurricane forecasts? Certainly both the Nino conditions as well as the unusually warm Atlantic were discussed at great length. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 40 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Hmmmm This is continued risk of ridge over troubled waters pt 2 with model consensus suggesting higher than avg TCG chance either NW Car, E GOM or SW Atlantic late next week underneath strong high in SE Can/NE US. 5 of 31 12Z GEFS have strong TS to H. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 A day old, but I was busy. Lower Gulf pressures would rob convergence from the Caribbean, but one good cold front might fix that. I'm a little impressed CV season is still going past the Equinox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 12 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: A day old, but I was busy. Lower Gulf pressures would rob convergence from the Caribbean, but one good cold front might fix that. I'm a little impressed CV season is still going past the Equinox. I’m not sure why Andy says lower hts over GOM is opposite of ridge over troubled waters. Lower hts over GOM under high hts over NE US/SE Can: how is that opposite when it isn’t? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 24, 2023 Share Posted September 24, 2023 23 hours ago, etudiant said: So why was it not prominently chosen in the various hurricane forecasts? Certainly both the Nino conditions as well as the unusually warm Atlantic were discussed at great length. It was. Look through the first couple pages of this thread. A lot of talk about recurves and analogs to 2010 which had similar tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 24, 2023 Share Posted September 24, 2023 We participate in a little of GFS trolling (just a tiny bit difference between runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 24, 2023 Share Posted September 24, 2023 Related to the ridge over troubled waters idea of low pressure forming to the S of NE US/SE Canada high pressure due to lower level convergence leading to rising air and thus LP forming, a good number of 12Z model runs have something within 4-7 days. If over warm enough waters like in this case, it can lead to TCG. The 12Z UKMET does this kind of thing just offshore the SE US on Thu (9/29) followed by very slow E movement for 3 days due to the blocking high sort of keeping it stuck. I don’t know whether or not this is directly related to the @wdragthread idea (thus I’ll probably post this there, too). But whether a system forms as he described it or something further S, a home brew (TC or STC) forming within a week or so just off the E coast seems likely to me: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 32.2N 78.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 29.09.2023 108 32.5N 77.1W 1011 29 1200UTC 29.09.2023 120 33.3N 76.6W 1010 29 0000UTC 30.09.2023 132 34.8N 75.0W 1010 32 1200UTC 30.09.2023 144 34.4N 74.1W 1009 36 0000UTC 01.10.2023 156 33.4N 73.4W 1007 34 1200UTC 01.10.2023 168 33.1N 72.4W 1005 34 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 24, 2023 Share Posted September 24, 2023 15 hours ago, EliasDePoot said: Which hurricanes might be retired? I don't think any will go. Idalia has a decent shot at retirement. As far as the never ending CV/Atlantic MDR season, 91L, although intensity guidance seems to suggest it may not become a hurricane. SHIPS shear increases to near 30 knots in 3 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 24, 2023 Share Posted September 24, 2023 i think as of right now idalia will be the only storm to be retired.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 I suspect we still have more activity to come. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 15 hours ago, nycwinter said: i think as of right now idalia will be the only storm to be retired.. Maybe. I would be a bit surprised if Idalia was retired, seemed to be more bark than bite. 9 hours ago, Floydbuster said: I suspect we still have more activity to come. Agree. We will have a NW Caribbean/GOM storm. We’re reaching that time period 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 On 9/24/2023 at 5:08 PM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Idalia has a decent shot at retirement. As far as the never ending CV/Atlantic MDR season, 91L, although intensity guidance seems to suggest it may not become a hurricane. SHIPS shear increases to near 30 knots in 3 days. For a major hurricane striking the continental US, Idalia was as gracious as could possibly be. It seems pure hype to retire the name. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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