MattPetrulli Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 The new Euro is similar to the last few... the system spins around in the far nw Caribbean for a couple days, but doesn't organize much. It only revs up once it's shooting northeast in the eastern gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 First time we’ve been seeing run to run consistency on actual development. GFS has vorticity but never gets development going. It’s a complicated forecast, but I do think something is going to lift into the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 24, 2023 Author Share Posted August 24, 2023 23 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: It seems to me there are few patterns where some part of Florida isn't at risk of a TC landfall June to mid November. A trough definitely doesn't support it, as we have a stronger one setting up now, veering Franklin out to sea. The -PNA at Day 15 is still taking shape on models, but it looks like it could pair up with +NAO, which again is a EC, US ridge signal (at day 15+). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 This system developing in NW Caribbean feels like something you’d see spin up in October, not August. The Atlantic has a late season feel to it at the moment 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 This system developing in NW Caribbean feels like something you’d see spin up in October, not August. The Atlantic has a late season feel to it at the moment Well, I mean, we did just have what would normally be a mid-to-late August Caribbean cruiser get smacked to all hell, then get kicked NNE of the Greaters by unrelenting Caribbean SW flow. Hrmmm.... But we may still get a major out this thanks to near virtually perfect timing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 8 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: This system developing in NW Caribbean feels like something you’d see spin up in October, not August. The Atlantic has a late season feel to it at the moment Everything has a late season feel to it up here. The weather up here in the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast has been nothing resembling August. The trees up here have been changing colors now for weeks and it is not drought related. We have only touched 90 degrees twice the entire month. Honestly there has been a NW, N, or NNE, NE flow up here since basically the fronts have never stopped coming. It should be really interesting to see what happens September to March. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 2 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said: Everything has a late season feel to it up here. The weather up here in the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast has been nothing resembling August. The trees up here have been changing colors now for weeks and it is not drought related. We have only touched 90 degrees twice the entire month. Honestly there has been a NW, N, or NNE, NE flow up here since basically the fronts have never stopped coming. It should be really interesting to see what happens September to March. Someone has not looked at a 500mb map for at least the last 10 days and it shows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 Please name the low pressure in the Atlantic so we don't have another stupid "I" name storm for the U.S. landfall! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 Please name the low pressure in the Atlantic so we don't have another stupid "I" name storm for the U.S. landfall!Sorry, bro. Better practice Idalia. Like a vidalia onion, only no "V".... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 Ugh. Should've never named Gert LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Interesting set up for TB region. Most likely a miss but if steering supports East and it picks up more heat could be problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 On 8/26/2023 at 9:00 AM, Windspeed said: Sorry, bro. Better practice Idalia. Like a vidalia onion, only no "V".... Like a Vid-AH-li-a onion, it is a Spanish name. All the English ones have been used. Finnish has some good I names. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Like a Vid-AH-li-a onion, it is a Spanish name. All the English ones have been used. Finnish has some good I names.They are going to have to retire "I" names altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Just now, jacindc said: They are going to have to retire "I" names altogether. Lol just make it like the 13th floor of buildings 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 2023 is turning out much more active than a typical El Nino so far. No mod-strong Nino has seen as much ACE to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Yay another tropical cyclone that will be gone in 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 ACE has risen to 39, slightly higher than the 30 year average for the date. Aside: As the tropics get very active, you know who gets quiet. Same pattern most every time. That strategy helps make him/her effective. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 ACE has risen to 39, slightly higher than the 30 year average for the date. Aside: As the tropics get very active, you know who gets quiet. Same pattern most every time. That strategy helps make him/her effective. Aside from others, I'll eat some crow here. Granted, these two systems aren't from the MDR (which is still struggling due to the current pattern). Franklin formed out of a monsoon trough that collapsed. Idalia is the result of a CA surface trough. Either way, I gave up on the August window of activity. Not making excuses. We can have exceptions to the rule. Whether or not the MDR comes alive after Franklin and Idalia are gone will be the next course on the menu. It's still an El Niño year, but the Atlantic is now producing majors. Will it keep on keeping on remains to be seen. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 The 0Z UKMET has a new TC forming in the far SE MDR at hour 78. This is for the AEW following the current E MDR orange. What's notable about it is that it is quite aggressive considering how conservative it usually is. It has it down to 999 mb at 168 hours at 12.9N, 40.7W, moving steadily WNW. That means it could threaten the LAs in 10 days. What should be concerning to the LAs is that the Euro has something similar along with notable members on the last several EPS runs. In addition, the GFS, CMC, and ICON have it though it looks to recurve on those: 0Z UKMET NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 9.7N 15.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 02.09.2023 84 10.3N 17.7W 1007 46 0000UTC 03.09.2023 96 10.9N 19.0W 1007 34 1200UTC 03.09.2023 108 12.1N 22.9W 1008 30 0000UTC 04.09.2023 120 11.6N 26.7W 1008 28 1200UTC 04.09.2023 132 11.7N 30.9W 1007 35 0000UTC 05.09.2023 144 11.7N 34.9W 1004 36 1200UTC 05.09.2023 156 12.2N 38.1W 1001 38 0000UTC 06.09.2023 168 12.9N 40.7W 999 46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 The 12Z UKMET still has that MDR TC that the Euro and other models have though it isn't as strong as the 0Z: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 10.1N 20.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 03.09.2023 84 10.1N 20.2W 1009 28 1200UTC 03.09.2023 96 10.3N 22.8W 1009 25 0000UTC 04.09.2023 108 12.1N 26.6W 1009 26 1200UTC 04.09.2023 120 12.4N 30.5W 1008 27 0000UTC 05.09.2023 132 12.9N 34.2W 1008 29 1200UTC 05.09.2023 144 13.4N 38.2W 1007 31 0000UTC 06.09.2023 156 13.9N 41.0W 1006 33 1200UTC 06.09.2023 168 14.2N 44.3W 1004 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Euro, CMC, Icon, and UK all show MDR development in 5 days. I wonder when we get a new lemon. This looks like it could be a long tracker ACE maker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 hour ago, cptcatz said: Euro, CMC, Icon, and UK all show MDR development in 5 days. I wonder when we get a new lemon. This looks like it could be a long tracker ACE maker. Caveat: not that knowledgeable about tropical dynamics. On the euro: It looks like there's quite a bit of shear present north of the Caribbean at 216. And that mid level trough extending to the tip of Fl seems like it'd keep it out of the Gulf and away from the eastern seaboard. Though by 244 looks like that trough might be breaking down. Someone with more knowledge care to chime in? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 10 hours ago, NeffsvilleWx said: Caveat: not that knowledgeable about tropical dynamics. On the euro: It looks like there's quite a bit of shear present north of the Caribbean at 216. And that mid level trough extending to the tip of Fl seems like it'd keep it out of the Gulf and away from the eastern seaboard. Though by 244 looks like that trough might be breaking down. Someone with more knowledge care to chime in? It looks like there’s a strong TC genesis signal suggesting long track potential in the MDR, but honestly, given how the models have struggled so much with the steering pattern for Franklin and now with Idalia’s long term track I don’t put a lot of stock in having any sense of steering for maybe another week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 TD-11 has strengthened into Tropical Storm Jose. That means August gave us 6 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes, and 2 major Category 4 hurricanes. Pretty impressive. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 7 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: TD-11 has strengthened into Tropical Storm Jose. That means August gave us 6 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes, and 2 major Category 4 hurricanes. Pretty impressive. especially in a el.nino year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 The possibility Idalia might still exist in 10 days making surf for NY/New England is interesting. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: It looks like there’s a strong TC genesis signal suggesting long track potential in the MDR, but honestly, given how the models have struggled so much with the steering pattern for Franklin and now with Idalia’s long term track I don’t put a lot of stock in having any sense of steering for maybe another week. Aside from the timing (ie - imagine the steering pattern solutions were more reliable) -- is my overall take accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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