2023 Atlantic Hurricane season

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Granted, not a Hollywood blockbuster, but the mentioned subtropical development in a week E of Bermuda already has a lemon.  About 10 of the hour 240 Euro ensemble members see the CV system Danny Morris tweeted about.  I suspect Nino does limit the season, but a slow July is pretty normal and thus doesn't prove much.  Nino limiting the season W of 60W isn't all bad, water off Florida is AOA 30C.

Now it is up to 40% in the latest TWO. 
 

 Per my recollection of recent years, either the NHC tends to underplay these subtropical lows regarding subtropical or tropical genesis in the TWO percent chances and/or they tend to "over-perform". Thus, considering this, being that about all models for several runs have had a pretty strong low forming within a few days, being that SSTs are near a warm enough 26C, and with pro-met "57" posting at another location going very bullish on ST or TCG, I'm going with a much higher chance than the NHC's 40% chance for a STD or TD to form from this. I think the NHC is playing catch-up as they had no chance within 7 days mentioned as recently as Saturday night.

[Superstorm93]

UKMET seasonal mean continues the theme of an active second half of the season

+AN Precip and BN SLP across much of the MDR

I think there's enough of a signal from the global means to assume that we'll have elevated areas of activity across the deep tropics, with somewhat reduced cyclone frequency in the Caribbean and Gulf. Obviously, it's impossible to say with confidence that the aforementioned areas will be "dead", but it'll certainly be quite interesting to watch things play out.

[GaWx]

21 hours ago, Windspeed said:

If something does sneak through west and happens to find some good upper support in a westward trajectory, holy cow is the OHC cooking around the Bahamas, Florida and the EGOM.
 

 RECORD EVENT REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL  
0136 AM EDT TUE JUL 11 2023  
  
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AND RECORD WARM LOW SET AT MARATHON   
TODAY...  
  
TODAY'S HIGH AT THE FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT   
REACHED 97 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT, SETTING A NEW DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE   
RECORD. THE PREVIOUS MOST RECENT RECORD WAS 94 DEGREES, SET IN 2020.  
  
TODAY'S LOW AT THE FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ONLY   
FELL TO 85 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT, SETTING A NEW DAILY WARM LOW   
TEMPERATURE RECORD. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 84, SET IN 2009.   
  
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT MARATHON DATE BACK TO 1950.
----------------

RECORD EVENT REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL  
140 AM EDT TUE JUL 11 2023  
   
..RECORD WARM LOW SET AT KEY WEST  
  
YESTERDAY'S LOW TEMPERATURE AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT   
WAS 86 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT, SETTING A NEW DAILY WARM LOW TEMPERATURE   
RECORD. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 85, SET IN 2007.   
  
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

22 hours ago, GaWx said:

Now it is up to 40% in the latest TWO. 
 

 Per my recollection of recent years, either the NHC tends to underplay these subtropical lows regarding subtropical or tropical genesis in the TWO percent chances and/or they tend to "over-perform". Thus, considering this, being that about all models for several runs have had a pretty strong low forming within a few days, being that SSTs are near a warm enough 26C, and with pro-met "57" posting at another location going very bullish on ST or TCG, I'm going with a much higher chance than the NHC's 40% chance for a STD or TD to form from this. I think the NHC is playing catch-up as they had no chance within 7 days mentioned as recently as Saturday night.

AL 94 now.  I don't think it will do much that is exciting.  It should use the name 'Don'.

[thunderbolt]

[so_whats_happening]

There are some rumblings of 20th-31st of July when things may get a little bit of a match to ignite some action. Of course long range but things are relaxing a bit across the Atlantic, Caribbean a bit of a different story as expected to still be a rather rough environment.

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, thunderbolt said:

 It got just about that insanely hot there today, too, (96.3 at 4PM) but the SST sensor suddenly went out. It was rising at the time. Yesterday's 96.8 was at 5PM. The water there is apparently quite shallow as one would expect with it so hot. The diurnal range was 7.3F yesterday and similar today with the wide range due to shallowness.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 It got just about that insanely hot there today, too, (96.3 at 4PM) but the SST sensor suddenly went out. It was rising at the time. Yesterday's 96.8 was at 5PM. The water there is apparently quite shallow as one would expect with it so hot. The diurnal range was 7.3F yesterday and similar today with the wide range due to shallowness.

I miss the AOML tropical cyclone heat potential page that had SSTs with an easily read color scale.  The UMiami color scale is harder for me to read and the new AOML page is a step backwards.  https://cwcgom.aoml.noaa.gov/cgom/OceanViewer/index_phod.html

AOML' trashed their website, but the TCHP map looks scary for Florida, I think between El Nino shear and the mean ridge, the season is East based, but I'd think it is possible something gets as far W as Florida during the short windows when shear is low.  The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane is thought to have gone from a Cat 1 to a Cat 5 between the Bahamas and the Keys.  South Florida is where half of all US Cat 5s had made landfall.

 

[ldub23]

6 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I miss the AOML tropical cyclone heat potential page that had SSTs with an easily read color scale.  The UMiami color scale is harder for me to read and the new AOML page is a step backwards.  https://cwcgom.aoml.noaa.gov/cgom/OceanViewer/index_phod.html

AOML' trashed their website, but the TCHP map looks scary for Florida, I think between El Nino shear and the mean ridge, the season is East based, but I'd think it is possible something gets as far W as Florida during the short windows when shear is low.  The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane is thought to have gone from a Cat 1 to a Cat 5 between the Bahamas and the Keys.  South Florida is where half of all US Cat 5s had made landfall.

 

The  overall pattern will have to reverse for that to matter.

[GaWx]

21 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

AL 94 now.  I don't think it will do much that is exciting.  It should use the name 'Don'.

Now at 40%/50% for ST or tropical dep or storm. So, only a slight increase over the last 36 hours.

[Scott747]

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

The  overall pattern will have to reverse for that to matter.

In what is potentially shaping up to be a boring and below average year... We don't need your same schtick telling us it's going to be a boring and below average year.

[WxWatcher007]

9 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I miss the AOML tropical cyclone heat potential page that had SSTs with an easily read color scale.  The UMiami color scale is harder for me to read and the new AOML page is a step backwards.  https://cwcgom.aoml.noaa.gov/cgom/OceanViewer/index_phod.html

AOML' trashed their website, but the TCHP map looks scary for Florida, I think between El Nino shear and the mean ridge, the season is East based, but I'd think it is possible something gets as far W as Florida during the short windows when shear is low.  The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane is thought to have gone from a Cat 1 to a Cat 5 between the Bahamas and the Keys.  South Florida is where half of all US Cat 5s had made landfall.

 

It’s extremely disappointing that they restricted access to historical data. 

[ldub23]

4 hours ago, Scott747 said:

In what is potentially shaping up to be a boring and below average year... We don't need your same schtick telling us it's going to be a boring and below average year.

But again, SST'S are the  least  important factor and  mean absolutely  nothing with hostile  upper  levels.

[mob1]

7 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

But again, SST'S are the  least  important factor and  mean absolutely  nothing with hostile  upper  levels.

While true, SST's are generally less transient than the upper level patterns. Should the upper level patterns become more favorable down the line (or even a narrow window and/or area of favorable upper level conditions) the OHC would be more supportive than usual. 

 

 

[Normandy]

Data from the ECMWF and UKMet in Dr. Knolls superblend are still suggestive of an active hurricane season despite the El Niño.   Still guessing we get a lot of named systems but perhaps not a lot of strong ones. 

[Tallis Rockwell]

11 hours ago, Normandy said:

Data from the ECMWF and UKMet in Dr. Knolls superblend are still suggestive of an active hurricane season despite the El Niño.   Still guessing we get a lot of named systems but perhaps not a lot of strong ones. 

I just can't see that happening with all the shear we've been seeing, El nino is only going to get stronger in the next few months. I am actually worried about the opposite. Just one window of weak shear could produce a monster storm with these crazy high SSTs

[ldub23]

5 hours ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

I just can't see that happening with all the shear we've been seeing, El nino is only going to get stronger in the next few months. I am actually worried about the opposite. Just one window of weak shear could produce a monster storm with these crazy high SSTs

Another  1 storm season seems  most  likely. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

21 hours ago, Normandy said:

Data from the ECMWF and UKMet in Dr. Knolls superblend are still suggestive of an active hurricane season despite the El Niño.   Still guessing we get a lot of named systems but perhaps not a lot of strong ones. 

Does the blend differentiate between Gulf/Caribbean and the Atlantic?  Is there a link?  Dr. Klotzbach tweeted about a week ago that the warm MDR should produce ridging with would produce favorable shear in the E part of the basin, accepting that, it could be an active year but very E based.  There are transient periods of basin wide hostile shear on the Euro ensembles, but this shows what I think Klotzbach expects.  The fact that the ensembles do show periods of high shear even in the E basin, if that continues into primetime ASO, suggests even the E basin will have unfavorable periods which would limit the number and strength of storms.  Not attached, but the next 15 days look hostile W of about 50, except the Gulf.  That suggests little W of the Lesser Antilles, and any Gulf system would likely be of nontropical origin.

[GaWx]

On 7/11/2023 at 12:38 PM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

AL 94 now.  I don't think it will do much that is exciting.  It should use the name 'Don'.

94L is more organized now. Chances up to 70%/70%. Should be a NS pretty soon.

[GaWx]

 Here comes STS Don very soon!

 Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Atlantic (AL94):
Satellite data indicate that the area of low pressure located about 
1000 miles west-southwest of the Azores is producing a large area of 
gale-force winds on its east side.  In addition, the thunderstorm 
activity has remained organized near the center during the past 
several hours.  If current trends continue, advisories could be 
initiated on a subtropical storm later this morning while it 
meanders over the central Atlantic.  By the weekend, the low should 
turn northward, bringing the system over cooler waters and into a 
drier airmass potentially limiting further development.  Additional 
information on this system, including storm warnings, can be found 
in High Seas Forecasts, issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[GaWx]

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Don Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
500 AM AST Fri Jul 14 2023

...SUBTROPICAL STORM DON FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 46.8W
ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 32.9N 46.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 33.5N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 34.9N 47.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 36.4N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 37.6N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 38.4N 47.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 38.5N 44.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 35.9N 40.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 33.4N 38.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[ldub23]

JB says  it!

 

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

JB says  it!

 

 

I'm no expert, but going just by chi, the JMA would imply an Atlantic season that doesn't look that unfavorable for a strong El Nino.  Since I've returned to the forum (and I remember somebody that seemed a lot like you before), every season is either dead or all the storms recurve.  This doesn't fit the narrative.  This smells like JB big hurricane season weenie bait. Phase 8 isn't great, but 8  moving into 1, and 1 are generally favorable.  You should be against this on principal.

Did you under a different name back around 2010 and 2011 frequently post FSU GFS surface pressure maps at two weeks to imply the tropics were dead.

 

EDIT TO ADD: About 40% of Euro ensembles near or in the E. Caribbean at day 10.  The Tropical Tidbits Euro ensembles have TCs, some strong, near Florida.  If you'll recall, I'm leaning slow season Western Atlantic, but I think I said if anyplace in the US does get hit, it would probably be Florida.

[Floydbuster]

 

 

 

 

 

Verbiage from many of the pros on Twitter is that we're in for another busy hurricane season just around the corner. Interesting contrast from the El Nino slow-season predictions from others. I guess we'll know in the next 8-10 weeks!

[GaWx]

 There's some increased noise on the 0Z GEFS/EPS vs earlier runs regarding an AEW/vorticity coming off Africa ~Tue 7/18. Just something to watch. IF it were to develop, the runs suggest it would probably go pretty far west.

[Windspeed]

Verbiage from many of the pros on Twitter is that we're in for another busy hurricane season just around the corner. Interesting contrast from the El Nino slow-season predictions from others. I guess we'll know in the next 8-10 weeks!

What will be the state of those vortices though? Will they have upper level support to become hurricanes, or will they be sheared weak systems? It's quite possible we get a number of TCs form in the MDR due to the OHC thermal support, but the WATL and Caribbean may still have unfavorable mid-to-upper level Westerlies. Of course, it only takes one to get into the right synoptic setup that just happens to be favorable for an intense landfall somewhere. Can the record +AMO overcome a strong +ENSO? This is going to be what everyone is focused on for meat of ASO. Big uncertainties on how this plays out with little to no analogs to compare.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

11

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 There's some increased noise on the 0Z GEFS/EPS vs earlier runs regarding an AEW/vorticity coming off Africa ~Tue 7/18. Just something to watch. IF it were to develop, the runs suggest it would probably go pretty far west.

I don't know if this is mildly weenie, but 11 days out Euro ensembles have a few members near Florida and the Bahamas, and with a window of lower (not low, just lower) shear.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

The GFS mid-level moisture fields are arguing against the GFS' solution, a hurricane moving through the Florida Straits, with a small bubble of high RH with the storm and a desert on all sides,.  It does relax the shear briefly, and I read Derek Ortt's Master's thesis, dry air has limited effect on established TCs if shear is low.  The GFS storm also tracks close to the Greater Antilles, so I'm more about the possibility as shown on Euro ensembles and GFS of a storm near Florida 12 or 13 days out.  Not worth hyping about, but if El Nino does what I think will do, Nino shear will be building during the approach to the climatalogical peak so much of the season will probably happen in July to mid August.

 

I suppose moving over abnormally warm waters might be how the GFS makes a hurricane in the desert.  Not sure if that is valid.  And it is more than 10 days out.

[Floydbuster]

23 hours ago, Windspeed said:

What will be the state of those vortices though? Will they have upper level support to become hurricanes, or will they be sheared weak systems? It's quite possible we get a number of TCs form in the MDR due to the OHC thermal support, but the WATL and Caribbean may still have unfavorable mid-to-upper level Westerlies. Of course, it only takes one to get into the right synoptic setup that just happens to be favorable for an intense landfall somewhere. Can the record +AMO overcome a strong +ENSO? This is going to be what everyone is focused on for meat of ASO. Big uncertainties on how this plays out with little to no analogs to compare.

Agree, but with CSU going with 9 hurricanes and 4 majors, I'm venturing to guess that they think the +AMO will win out and enough storms will find good environments. Otherwise I assume they wouldn't have gone with such high numbers of hurricanes and major hurricanes.  

I assume nobody has any idea. We just have to wait and see.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Waiting to see whether the on again/off again MDR near 60°W system on the GFS is on again or off again, but the long range OLR map linked, MDR gets hostile end of August but maybe the Caribbean (and thus the Eastern part of the Gulf/Florida might see something in Ocrtober.

 

I posted about ensembles and operationials seeing a storm above, but it has been on again/off again/on again and  I'm not doing a play by play 2 or 4 times a day models are supportive of a storm following/models not enthusiastic.  I'll do a play by play, maybe, inside 5 days.

 

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogslp.html