OKTWISTER Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: HWRF for 92L, and some GEFS and ECENS have a friend following in the footsteps of what likely becomes Arlene. Arlene has been used. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 I've never heard of the University of Arizona hurricane forecast before. https://news.arizona.edu/story/very-active-hurricane-season-expected-2023-uarizona-experts-say Link is to April forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: I've never heard of the University of Arizona hurricane forecast before. https://news.arizona.edu/story/very-active-hurricane-season-expected-2023-uarizona-experts-say Link is to April forecast. That’s insane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 This system in the western Caribbean is what the GFS has been saying hits Florida as a hurricane for the last 2 weeks. It certainly looks impressive right now. It'll be interesting to watch in real time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 27 minutes ago, cptcatz said: This system in the western Caribbean is what the GFS has been saying hits Florida as a hurricane for the last 2 weeks. It certainly looks impressive right now. It'll be interesting to watch in real time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 17, 2023 Author Share Posted June 17, 2023 ENSO subsurface has warmed up to almost +7c in the east, meaning that we will probably see a rapidly strengthening El Nino at least through July. Since year 2000, 16/21 Seasons have had 15+ TC [tropical cyclone]. (All 5 under 15 were developing El Nino's) (No season non-El Nino since 2000 has had under 15TC. Most recent, 2018 was a rapidly developing Summer El Nino (although weak): 15TC. 2016 was the most recent rapidly developing Summer La Nina: 15TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted June 18, 2023 Share Posted June 18, 2023 New friend lemon behind 92L. 48hr: 10% 7day: 20% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 19, 2023 Share Posted June 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Rhino16 said: New friend lemon behind 92L. 48hr: 10% 7day: 20% Yeah, the ops have trended stronger with that one. A weaker 92L means less shear on this next wave. Feels more like August than June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted June 19, 2023 Share Posted June 19, 2023 The wave behind 92L looks just as good right now. We might have 2 MDR systems come this time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted June 19, 2023 Share Posted June 19, 2023 It’s now Invest 93L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 19, 2023 Share Posted June 19, 2023 Been watching this stuff since 2006 and I can't recall a June where this was already this much activity in the East Atlantic We're going to need to bump seasonal predictions up quite a bit if this becomes a trend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 19, 2023 Share Posted June 19, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted June 19, 2023 Share Posted June 19, 2023 93L has two vorticity centers…one around 10N which is being used to designate/track the invest. And another near 5 N. Should be fun to track. Crazy how much activity there is this early 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 12 hours ago, Superstorm93 said: Been watching this stuff since 2006 and I can't recall a June where this was already this much activity in the East Atlantic We're going to need to bump seasonal predictions up quite a bit if this becomes a trend. Bringing this back to seasonal-level discussion. The recent (June 6) CSU forecast has 15 Named Storms, 7 Hurricanes, 2 Major Hurricanes. The asterisk here is that it includes the unnamed storm that already happened 6 months ago in January . So including these specific numbers, it's really normal, also the ACE is really normal. So I guess the negative features of El Nino will be maybe fighting against some positive features, like the stronger African monsoon. For all you New England persons out there, Phil Klotzbach used to have a team picture of the 2004 Red Sox in his office when he was at CSU's campus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 The Aus BoM's new modeling output for El Niño 3.4 is bonkers. I mean, obviously hoping this is overdone, tropics aside. We'd be in uncharted territory here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 One main phenomenon which contextualizes this earlier activity is: tropical cyclones frequently meet up and merge with a larger low pressure system which is often moving from west to east. Understandably, both types of activity are here together. I think on some level there still isn't the vocabulary to describe the ULL(s) and cyclone(s) as the same system, yet, although there would be a threshhold after which it would be clear in the models that the merging would eventually happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 Pretty evident zone of shear over Caribbean and western parts of MDR Could be the season of storms rapidly forming east only to disintegrate as they get closer. It's still early though but a strong Nino would reinforce this mechanism. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 Canadian Climate Model seems to suggest an active August before El Nino shuts down the hurricane season for the US. Shear doesn't look terrible even later in the season (not attached) in the deep tropics. Just one model, but unless naked swirl Bret can do something in a few days, not seeing much after Cindy dies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 I still think the window for a potential active stretch with hurricanes will be small. Perhaps mid-July to the end of August. If a disturbance can get in the right place at the right time, sure, we may still see legitimate landfall threats. But everything to me looks like it will lead to a plethora of upper tropospheric troughs and strong upper level westerlies across the western Atlantic basin by September, if not before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 On 6/19/2023 at 9:07 AM, Superstorm93 said: Been watching this stuff since 2006 and I can't recall a June where this was already this much activity in the East Atlantic We're going to need to bump seasonal predictions up quite a bit if this becomes a trend. Or it could be totally dead in aug/sept. Cindy and Bret both collapsed. Before i say this will anything but a dead el nino season i will need to see storms get past 70W on deepening trends and with a west component. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 53 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Or it could be totally dead in aug/sept. Cindy and Bret both collapsed. Before i say this will anything but a dead el nino season i will need to see storms get past 70W on deepening trends and with a west component. Welcome back. See above post, I don't see why the Cansips active August before El Nino really kicks in is impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 4 hours ago, ldub23 said: Or it could be totally dead in aug/sept. Cindy and Bret both collapsed. Before i say this will anything but a dead el nino season i will need to see storms get past 70W on deepening trends and with a west component. Rai.....ooops, I mean, ldub is back! Hurricane season ain't the same without him/her! A tradition unlike no other! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 29 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Spaghetti plots going to be messy! May have to move away from showing the individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 The pattern right now just isn't condusive for Atlantic activity. Way too much mid-to-upper westerlies across the basin. We'll see where things stand in a couple of weeks and leading into August if a window of favoribility can emerge. But that window likely won't persist for too long. Yes, we're only in early July here. But the idea of an active period was banking on development prior to September, as a strong El Niño most likely shuts down the ASO by September anyway. Despite the favorable AMO, the lesson here is cyclical positive SST/OHC anomolies are not going to lead to an active year. You need a favorable atmospheric pattern in place. I'm not saying we don't get a big bad major landfall during an El Niño. Andrew comes to mind. Just takes a lot more luck with placement of TC and a temporary pattern. That being said, I have no confidence in 2023 being active or even reaching normal ACE values. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 We have already had three named storms though. Not seeing anything right now that would suggest anything different from two weeks ago? Are you seeing different forecasts coming out that suggest a lower than normal season (well lower than predicted I guess) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 We have already had three named storms though. Not seeing anything right now that would suggest anything different from two weeks ago? Are you seeing different forecasts coming out that suggest a lower than normal season (well lower than predicted I guess)Those storms developed due to favorable WAM and SST anomolies in the eastern MDR. The wave train can persist, and some disturbances may continue to develop in the MDR, but unless mid-to-upper flow cooperates, they are going to be shredded in this pattern just like our previous two tropical storms. Again, not saying something gets in the right place at the right time, and certainly AMO is favorable, but tropical depressions and storms do not high value ACE generate. Flow off of the EPAC and GOM ridge placement is driving a frequently reoccurring pattern of TUTTs and strong westerlies from the Caribbean out over the western MDR and subtropical Atlantic. That is unfriendly for long-tracking hurricanes. Again, we'll see where things stand in a few weeks and see how modeling begins to evolve for August. But a hostile pattern may very well prevail into ASO. A window of activity, if opened, may slam shut fast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 Be careful using the EPS weeklies beyond 2-3 weeks to gauge favorability of the overall pattern for Atlantic tropical activity. They have been biased toward too much -VP over the E. Pacific and +VP over Indian Ocean, apparently playing catchup to the lingering impacts of the very warm SST in the tropical W. Pacific and the -PDO, as well as the influence of the strong WAM and very warm tropical Atlantic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 5, 2023 Share Posted July 5, 2023 The new Euro seasonal model continues to show an exceptionally active remainder of the season. Little skeptical, but it's going to be rather interesting to watch this unfold over the next two months. I suppose we could rack up some ACE with several long-tracked Cape Verde storms if we have more intra-seasonal forcing than the giant WP standing wave, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 5, 2023 Share Posted July 5, 2023 9 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: The new Euro seasonal model continues to show an exceptionally active remainder of the season. Little skeptical, but it's going to be rather interesting to watch this unfold over the next two months. I suppose we could rack up some ACE with several long-tracked Cape Verde storms if we have more intra-seasonal forcing than the giant WP standing wave, Seeing enhanced activity in both the MDR and EPAC would be exceptionally contrary to climo for an El Niño season. Call me skeptical at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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