2023 Atlantic Hurricane season

[GaWx]

10 hours ago, Windspeed said:

The pattern might actually support a Carla Cradle TC in a week or so but please keep in mind that it's just fantasy at this point. The GFS likes to make somethings out of that region but it must be taken with a grain of salt.

 We're now up to 12 GFS runs in a row with a strong W Caribbean and/or Gulf TC forming in week 2. Also, though still mainly quiet, the last 4 EPS runs have shown a subtle increase in activity in the W Caribbean near June 20th. 

 Whereas the GFS has had a good number of cases in which it has fakes in the W basin even after a lot longer than 12 runs and thus it should continue to be taken with a grain of salt for now, El Niño climo actually does suggest a significantly higher chance for TC genesis in the W Caribbean and Gulf vs non-Nino years in mid to late June. I plan to post more on this El Niño climo soon.

[GaWx]

 Regarding recorded 6/11-30 W Car/Gulf TC/STC geneses since 1851, 43% (23) of the 54 storms formed during the 53 El Nino years. That's notable considering that only 31% of the 172 seasons (53 of them) since 1851 were associated with El Niño.

 Here are the 23 mid to late June recorded TC/STC geneses during El Nino years in either the W Caribbean or Gulf:

1865, 1880, 1887, 1888*, 1899, 1902 (2), 1904, 1913, 1923, 1929, 1939, 1957, 1958, 1965*, 1968 (2), 1972*, 1982*, 1986, 1994, 2006, 2015*

* notes super El Niño years. A whopping 5 of the 7 (71%) super El Niño years had one of these storms! I'm mentioning this because there's a chance that 2023 will reach super status.

 This leaves 31 storms that formed during the same period in the same region during 119 non-El Nino seasons or only 26% of them.

 In summary, there were 23 mid to late June W Car/Gulf storms during 53 El Nino seasons for a ratio of 43%. This compares to 31 from 119 non-El Nino seasons or a ratio of only 26%. That tells me that whereas we still should take the 12 GFS runs in a row with a W Car/Gulf TCG in week 2 with a grain based on its bias toward that, we should also keep in mind that this year being El Niño means it has a significantly higher chance of occurring vs if it weren't El Niño.

[olafminesaw]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Regarding recorded 6/11-30 W Car/Gulf TC/STC geneses since 1851, 43% (23) of the 54 storms formed during the 53 El Nino years. That's notable considering that only 31% of the 172 seasons (53 of them) since 1851 were associated with El Niño.

 Here are the 23 mid to late June recorded TC/STC geneses during El Nino years in either the W Caribbean or Gulf:

1865, 1880, 1887, 1888*, 1899, 1902 (2), 1904, 1913, 1923, 1929, 1939, 1957, 1958, 1965*, 1968 (2), 1972*, 1982*, 1986, 1994, 2006, 2015*

* notes super El Niño years. A whopping 5 of the 7 (71%) super El Niño years had one of these storms! I'm mentioning this because there's a chance that 2023 will reach super status.

 This leaves 31 storms that formed during the same period in the same region during 119 non-El Nino seasons or only 26% of them.

 In summary, there were 23 mid to late June W Car/Gulf storms during 53 El Nino seasons for a ratio of 43%. This compares to 31 from 119 non-El Nino seasons or a ratio of only 26%. That tells me that whereas we still should take the 12 GFS runs in a row with a W Car/Gulf TCG in week 2 with a grain based on its bias toward that, we should also keep in mind that this year being El Niño means it has a significantly higher chance of occurring vs if it weren't El Niño.

While the GFS is unrealistic in terms of intensity, I'd be a little concerned about a weak tropical system meandering inland and causing flooding. The 12z & 6Z GFS both support this idea, although I kinda expect the GFS to drop the system altogether at some point.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I may sound like Joe Bastardi and I don't trust GFS hour 300 storms, but 1957 as any kind of analog always makes me think of Audrey.  Was a Cat 4 before reanalysis, IIRC it was then classified Cat 3 with Cat 2 winds at landfall (with a major hurricane like storm surge)

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it's actually kind of like a stronger version of 1957-58. that ENSO event started off very east based as well

 

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

Not much to add other than 

 

[ncforecaster89]

15 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Regarding recorded 6/11-30 W Car/Gulf TC/STC geneses since 1851, 43% (23) of the 54 storms formed during the 53 El Nino years. That's notable considering that only 31% of the 172 seasons (53 of them) since 1851 were associated with El Niño.

 Here are the 23 mid to late June recorded TC/STC geneses during El Nino years in either the W Caribbean or Gulf:

1865, 1880, 1887, 1888*, 1899, 1902 (2), 1904, 1913, 1923, 1929, 1939, 1957, 1958, 1965*, 1968 (2), 1972*, 1982*, 1986, 1994, 2006, 2015*

* notes super El Niño years. A whopping 5 of the 7 (71%) super El Niño years had one of these storms! I'm mentioning this because there's a chance that 2023 will reach super status.

 This leaves 31 storms that formed during the same period in the same region during 119 non-El Nino seasons or only 26% of them.

 In summary, there were 23 mid to late June W Car/Gulf storms during 53 El Nino seasons for a ratio of 43%. This compares to 31 from 119 non-El Nino seasons or a ratio of only 26%. That tells me that whereas we still should take the 12 GFS runs in a row with a W Car/Gulf TCG in week 2 with a grain based on its bias toward that, we should also keep in mind that this year being El Niño means it has a significantly higher chance of occurring vs if it weren't El Niño.

 

Hi GaWx, 

Greatly appreciate the time and effort involved in such research.  
 

Although correct on your synopsis and the increased historical probability for a June TC/H strike on the mainland U.S. during EL Nino seasons, I’d be remiss if I didn’t note that many of the seasons you listed weren’t an El Nino at the ASO tri-monthly. Those years being 1865, 1880, 1887, 1913, 1929, 1939, 1958, and 1968.
 

That’s a very important distinction as the ASO value has shown the best correlation with effects on NATL basin TC activity and is generally used in such analysis, as a result.  The main reason being attributed to the way that the atmosphere behaves as it transitions to a stronger +ENSO event through the Fall and early winter.  
 

Here is a list of all El Nino seasons (1851-2022) defined as above (with corresponding ASO value): 

1852: 0.5

1855: 0.5

1864: 0.6

1877: 2.2

1884: 0.6

1885: 0.8

1888: 1.3

1896: 1.2

1899: 0.8

1900: 0.5

1902: 1.6

1904: 0.6

1905: 1.4

1914: 0.8

1918: 0.8

1923: 0.7

1925: 0.7

1930: 1.1

1940: 0.8

1941: 0.9

1951: 1.0

1953: 0.8

1957: 1.3

1963: 1.2

1965: 1.9

1969: 0.8

1972: 1.6

1976: 0.6

1977: 0.6

1982: 1.6

1986: 0.7

1987: 1.6

1991: 0.6

1994: 0.6

1997: 2.1

2002: 1.0

2004: 0.7

2006: 0.5

2009: 0.7

2015: 2.2

2018: 0.5

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

0Z GFS storm running about 24 hours behind the 18Z storm.  Toggling back and forth on TT.  General development and location.  Kind of like the 18Z run is close to the 0Z run, except about a day too fast.  I've seen this before with the GFS.

[ncforecaster89]

Sharing some of the extensive research I’ve conducted recently regarding hurricane strikes on the U.S. mainland…for the past 150 years.  Didn’t go any further back due to the likelihood of missed hurricane landfalls prior to 1877.   

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Hi GaWx, 

Greatly appreciate the time and effort involved in such research.  
 

Although correct on your synopsis and the increased historical probability for a June TC/H strike on the mainland U.S. during EL Nino seasons, I’d be remiss if I didn’t note that many of the seasons you listed weren’t an El Nino at the ASO tri-monthly. Those years being 1865, 1880, 1887, 1913, 1929, 1939, 1958, and 1968.
 

That’s a very important distinction as the ASO value has shown the best correlation with effects on NATL basin TC activity and is generally used in such analysis, as a result.  The main reason being attributed to the way that the atmosphere behaves as it transitions to a stronger +ENSO event through the Fall and early winter.  
 

Here is a list of all El Nino seasons (1851-2022) defined as above (with corresponding ASO value): 

1852: 0.5

1855: 0.5

1864: 0.6

1877: 2.2

1884: 0.6

1885: 0.8

1888: 1.3

1896: 1.2

1899: 0.8

1900: 0.5

1902: 1.6

1904: 0.6

1905: 1.4

1914: 0.8

1918: 0.8

1923: 0.7

1925: 0.7

1930: 1.1

1940: 0.8

1941: 0.9

1951: 1.0

1953: 0.8

1957: 1.3

1963: 1.2

1965: 1.9

1969: 0.8

1972: 1.6

1976: 0.6

1977: 0.6

1982: 1.6

1986: 0.7

1987: 1.6

1991: 0.6

1994: 0.6

1997: 2.1

2002: 1.0

2004: 0.7

2006: 0.5

2009: 0.7

2015: 2.2

2018: 0.5

 Yeah, I was counting as "El Niño years" those years for which there was El Niño by that autumn without necessarily requiring El Niño by ASO. Is your way better? Perhaps.

 So, I'll redo my analysis requiring El Niño in ASO if I get time.

 

[GaWx]

I'm redoing my W Caribbean/GOM TC formations 6/11-30 for El Niño years based on ASO Nino 3.4 SSTa having to be +0.5+ as per @ncforecaster89recommendation: 
 

1852: 0.5 none

1855: 0.5 none

1864: 0.6 none

1877: 2.2 none

1884: 0.6 none

1885: 0.8 none

1888: 1.3 one

1896: 1.2 none

1899: 0.8 one

1900: 0.5 none

1902: 1.6 two

1904: 0.6 one

1905: 1.4 none

1914: 0.8 none

1918: 0.8 none

1923: 0.7 one

1925: 0.7 none

1930: 1.1 none

1940: 0.8 none

1941: 0.9 none

1951: 1.0 none

1953: 0.8 none

1957: 1.3 one

1963: 1.2 none

1965: 1.9 one

1969: 0.8 none

1972: 1.6 one

1976: 0.6 none

1977: 0.6 none

1982: 1.6 one (STS)

1986: 0.7 one

1987: 1.6 none

1991: 0.6 none

1994: 0.6 one

1997: 2.1 none

2002: 1.0 none

2004: 0.7 none

2006: 0.5 one

2009: 0.7 none

2015: 2.2 one

2018: 0.5 none

 Doing it this way gives only 14 formations for 41 El Niño years for a 34% ratio. That leaves 40 formations for the 131 non-El Nino years for a 31% ratio. So, 34% for El Niño vs 31% for others is essentially a wash. But this still shows that El Niño years aren't less prone than non-El Nino years to formations during mid to late June as is the case later in the season.

-------------

Edit: Further breakdown:

-Only 6 formations out of 27 years (22% ratio) with ASO of +0.5 to +1.0

-2 formations out of 6 years (33% ratio) with ASO of +1.1 to +1.5. But small sample size.

-Interestingly, 6 formations out of 8 years (75% ratio) with ASO of +1.6+! This is consistent with ncforecaster89's stats showing more June US landfalls with stronger El Niño events. But sample size is pretty small. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

11 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

0Z GFS storm running about 24 hours behind the 18Z storm.  Toggling back and forth on TT.  General development and location.  Kind of like the 18Z run is close to the 0Z run, except about a day too fast.  I've seen this before with the GFS.

The trend of later development with each run, so often the case with the GFS when showing spurious cyclones, has paused,in fact, 12Z GFS is actually a bit quicker.  Or too early to give up.  Also see Euro also has enhanced vorticity in the SW Caribbean.  That vorticity moves into C America, maybe it would, in Euro land, become something to watch.  I don't have access to ECENS past 240 hours to know.

 

I wonder if the wave analyzed in CIMMS vort products and TPW near 35W is the seed.

[GaWx]

26 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

The trend of later development with each run, so often the case with the GFS when showing spurious cyclones, has paused,in fact, 12Z GFS is actually a bit quicker.  Or too early to give up.  Also see Euro also has enhanced vorticity in the SW Caribbean.  That vorticity moves into C America, maybe it would, in Euro land, become something to watch.  I don't have access to ECENS past 240 hours to know.

 

I wonder if the wave analyzed in CIMMS vort products and TPW near 35W is the seed.

 The last couple of Euro ens runs have gone back to very quiet through day 15 after a few runs with only a subtle increase in activity. 
 Today's 12Z GFS run makes 17 in a row, which is still nowhere near the record for a fake.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The last couple of Euro ens runs have gone back to very quiet after a few runs with only a subtle increase in activity. 
 Today's 12Z GFS run makes 17 in a row, which is still nowhere near the record for a fake.

Euro is not that different from the 12Z GFS for the same time.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Euro is not that different from the 12Z GFS for the same time.

 I'm admittedly a bit more wary about the chance that this is real based on the higher level of June activity on average preceding +1.3+ ASO El Nino's and considering that ASO in 2023 is headed there.

 I'll re-list them in this way to better make that point:

 

No mid to late June W Car/GOM TC/STC formation: ASO ONI

0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.7, 0.7, 0.7, 0.8, 0.8, 0.8, 0.8, 0.8, 0.8, 0.9, 1.0, 1.0, 1.1, 1.2, 1.2, 1.4, 1.6, 2.1, 2.2

 

Mid to late June W Car/GOM TC/STC formations: ASO ONI

0.5, 0.6, 0.6, 0.7, 0.7, 0.8, 1.3, 1.3, 1.6, 1.6, 1.6, 1.6, 1.9, 2.2

 So, for ASO of 0.5 through 1.2, there were only 6 of these W basin mid to late June formations from 30 years (20% ratio). But things really start picking up in June when the subsequent ASO is 1.3+ with 8 formations from just 11 years (73% ratio).

 

[Normandy]

GFS very consistent run to run….having a higher confidence this isn’t a phantom 

[tiger_deF]

Speaks for itself.

[tiger_deF]

In addition GEFS ensembles are increasingly showing potential early-season activity. The MDR feature is also seeing support from the Euro.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

This is interesting.

 

[GaWx]

 Make that 24 W Caribbean TCs in a row with today's 6Z GFS, which gets it to TS strength before weakening over the Yucatan. The 0Z GFS had a TC but only a strong TD before weakening over Belize.

 Getting to 24 isn't near the record for what turned out to be a fake, which I recall getting to somewhere into the 30s. So, we need another two days to approach that record.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Make that 24 W Caribbean TCs in a row with today's 6Z GFS, which gets it to TS strength before weakening over the Yucatan. The 0Z GFS had a TC but only a strong TD before weakening over Belize.

 Getting to 24 isn't near the record for what turned out to be a fake, which I recall getting to somewhere into the 30s. So, we need another two days to approach that record.

The gfs is already starting to fizzle out at 6z

[SnoSki14]

16 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

This is interesting.

 

I've never seen anything like this. Strong Nino developing yet Atlantic would suggest high activity

What a battle 

[GaWx]

18 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

This is interesting.

 

 What Matt Souza says in this post is what I've been wondering about for this season since far wetter than normal at Miami, for example, doesn't necessarily mean from nearby TC activity per looking back in their records. Sometimes it was, especially in some Augusts and Septembers, but sometimes it wasn't:

 

 

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

The gfs is already starting to fizzle out at 6z

 The last 3 runs have been weaker. Like the 6Z GFS, the 12Z GFS has a strong TS developing in the W Caribbean before going inland into the Yucatan. It is the 3rd one in a row moving W into the Yucatan. This now makes 25 GFS runs in a row with a W Caribbean TC that forms within a day of 6/18. Is this W Car TC for real or not? The longest streak of GFS runs in a row that I can recall that turned out to be fake was 30 something.
 
 El Niño seasons with +1.3+ in ASO since the late 1800s have had TCs form in mid to late June in the W Caribbean or Gulf more often than not fwiw. Of course, even if that occurs this season, too, it doesn't have to be from the one the GFS has been developing. It could be from something as late as 12 days later.

 Excellent Tweet from Dr. Cowan:

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 What Matt Souza says in this post is what I've been wondering about for this season since far wetter than normal at Miami, for example, doesn't necessarily mean from nearby TC activity per looking back in their records. Sometimes it was, especially in some Augusts and Septembers, but sometimes it wasn't:

 

 

I didn't see a Euro monthly 250 mb on their page, active but sheared waves could be doing that.

[cptcatz]

That's quite a look for June 11.  This is gonna be an interesting season...

[GaWx]

The GFS streak has passed.

GFS streak: 12Z June 5th, 2023-18Z June 11th, 2023 RIP
It was 26 runs old. 
 
 It had a pretty long life though not near a record breaker. This streak will always be remembered for its tenacity.

[bdgwx]

Relevant...

 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, bdgwx said:

Relevant...

 

 
 Credit to @TheClimateChanger alerting me to the record San Juan June 1-11th warmth via another thread, which I then incorporated in the following:

 Very likely related to the record warm tropical Atlantic and record low Saharan dust for this time of year, San Juan has just had its warmest June 1-11 on record, 86.9 F. Furthermore, it is the warmest by a good margin. The old record warmth was down at 85.3, set in 1988. The record coolest is 77.5, set in 1922, 1913, 1914, and 1939.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=sju

 They've had a mere 0.02" of rainfall so far this month, 1% of their normal of 1.87" for June 1-11.

 

[WxWatcher007]

3 hours ago, bdgwx said:

Relevant...

 

 

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 
 Credit to @TheClimateChanger alerting me to the record San Juan June 1-11th warmth via another thread, which I then incorporated in the following:

 Very likely related to the record warm tropical Atlantic and record low Saharan dust for this time of year, San Juan has just had its warmest June 1-11 on record, 86.9 F. Furthermore, it is the warmest by a good margin. The old record warmth was down at 85.3, set in 1988. The record coolest is 77.5, set in 1922, 1913, 1914, and 1939.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=sju

 They've had a mere 0.02" of rainfall so far this month, 1% of their normal of 1.87" for June 1-11.

 

Now that’s really interesting. If it continues on, that may allow for some greater instability to build out in the eastern MDR—something that has been a struggle in recent years. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

The ghost of the GFS storm looks sickly, but it is there.  Dr. Knabb suggested this as a GFS reaction to the CAG.  I don't know if a fully closed (and by definition, broad) circulation is needed to be technically a gyre.  Euro comes close, but doesn't seem to fully close off.  Knabb pointed out the CAG can generate TCs, he seemed to be leaning toward an EPac system if one were to develop