2023 Atlantic Hurricane season

[WxWatcher007]

Even with a torched MDR, a strong niño is still likely to significantly cap genesis and intensity because of shear. If this is only a weak-low mod niño I can see much more activity.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Joe Bastardi's WXBell numbers quoted below and another forecast linked that mentions 2017.  JB's ACE forecast gives him pretty wide latitude.  70-110 is probably right.

Quote

Named Storms: 10-14
Hurricanes: 5-7
Major Hurricanes: 2-3
ACE: 70-110

Bastardi sees an above average threat Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.  This forecast JB linked (below) has references 2017, (5 majors) although the caveat it may not be as damaging as 2017, more 'fish' storms.  https://www.nextgov.com/ideas/2023/05/forecasters-2023-will-be-very-active-hurricane-season/385916/

[crownweather]

29 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Joe Bastardi's WXBell numbers quoted below and another forecast linked that mentions 2017.  JB's ACE forecast gives him pretty wide latitude.  70-110 is probably right.

Bastardi sees an above average threat Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.  This forecast JB linked (below) has references 2017, (5 majors) although the caveat it may not be as damaging as 2017, more 'fish' storms.  https://www.nextgov.com/ideas/2023/05/forecasters-2023-will-be-very-active-hurricane-season/385916/

When hasn't JB put the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast in an above average threat area??  Of course, a broken clock is right twice a day. 
 

[jconsor]

A thread on why the Sahel rainfall/Atlantic hurricane correlation has waxed and waned, and why the expected wet Sahel/strong W. African monsoon this year is likely an important factor for the hurricane season:
 

 

[TriPol]

Just look at all that warm water from Spain to the central Atlantic. Gonna be a busy year if El Nino doesn't stop it.

[Windspeed]

[Rhino16]

Here’s this for later…

692 
NOUS41 KNHC 111500
PNSNHC

Public Information Statement
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM EDT Thu May 11 2023

...NHC Determines That a Subtropical Storm Formed in the Atlantic 
Basin in Mid-January 2023...

Through the course of typical re-assessment of weather systems in 
the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) area of responsibility, NHC 
hurricane specialists have determined that an area of low pressure 
that formed off the northeastern coast of the United States in 
mid-January should be designated as a subtropical storm.  Specific 
information on the justification for the subtropical storm 
designation, as well as the system's synoptic history and impacts, 
will be available in a Tropical Cyclone Report, which will likely be 
issued during the next couple of months.

This subtropical storm is being numbered as the first cyclone of 
2023 in the Atlantic basin and will be given AL012023 as its system 
ID.  As a result, the next system that forms in 2023 in the Atlantic 
basin will be designated as AL022023, and advisories will be issued 
in AWIPS bin 2 (e.g., Public Advisories will be issued under AWIPS 
header TCPAT2 and WMO header WTNT22 KNHC).  If the system begins as 
a tropical depression, then it would be given the designation 
'TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO', and if it becomes a tropical storm, it 
would be given the name 'ARLENE'.

National Weather Service policy (through NWS Instruction 10-607, 
Section 1) allows for marginal subtropical systems to be handled in 
real-time as non-tropical gale or storm events in NWS High Seas 
Forecast products.  This was the procedure followed for the unnamed 
subtropical storm in mid-January.  However, the lack of real-time 
issuance of advisories does not preclude NHC from retroactively 
designating these systems as a subtropical cyclones in 
post-analysis, if necessary.


$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit

[jconsor]

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

2006 would make by contest predictions pretty good.  I don't pretend to understand all the Tweets, but these guys sound like they know what they are talking about.  The balance of a 1997 Death Niño against an abnormally warm Atlantic.

 

 

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Has some very weak Euro and GFS ensemble support.  Not impossible it could become a weak named STS.  I think the first lemon of the season

[GaWx]

 NOAA issued their "outlook" today with wide ranges: 12-17 storms, 5-9 H, and 1-4 MH. Based on 1950+ stats, NOAA is not making a forecast but them calling it an "outlook" is fair game I suppose.

- Since 1950, 33 of 73 (45%) years have had 12-17 storms.

- Since 1950, 43 of 73 (59%) have had 5-9 H.

- Since 1950, 55 of 73 (75%) have had 1-4 MH.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

26 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 NOAA issued their "outlook" today with wide ranges: 12-17 storms, 5-9 H, and 1-4 MH. Based on 1950+ stats, NOAA is not making a forecast but them calling it an "outlook" is fair game I suppose.

- Since 1950, 33 of 73 (45%) years have had 12-17 storms.

- Since 1950, 43 of 73 (59%) have had 5-9 H.

- Since 1950, 55 of 73 (75%) have had 1-4 MH.

30/30/40 odds of normal, above and below doesn't seem like a very bold prediction.  Thinking of the Klozbach early April out;ook, where he didn't know how strong Nino would get and how a warm Atlantic MDR would counter the tendency to suppress storms, so he split the difference,  it getting closer to Summer, SOI is finally acting like it should for a wamr ENSO, and the PDO is changing to reflect the equatorial temps.  I'm trying to find a comparison between current Atlantic warm anomalies vs this time last year.  I doubt they have gotten warmer in the last year, but my Google fu is weak.  A couple of years ago, I could switch years in the Gregorian number in the URL to compare one year to the next, but for whatever reason, AOML seems to have made that password protected/

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

30/30/40 odds of normal, above and below doesn't seem like a very bold prediction.

   The one that I'm least impressed by is the MH prediction of 1-4. Since 1950, 55 of 73 seasons (75%) have had 1-4 MH.

 I mean if I were to pick a number from 1 to 100, asked someone to guess it, allowed for 75 guesses, and one of their 75 guesses turned out to be the number I picked, I wouldn't exactly be impressed about them guessing the number! That's equivalent to their MH outlook.

[Windspeed]

The vague outlook numbers are very much indicative of too much uncertainty. The Atlantic is anomonously warm and AMO looks favorable, however, a moderate to strong El Niño counters that. If we have deep layer shear setup over the WATL by August/September, any window of heightened activity would likely be small. Yes, we may still get a few powerful hurricanes, but I would feel very uncomfortable making a forecast this year. I still think we're looking at a below normal season. If there is activity, it may either be front-loaded or focused on July/August. I think ASO will shut down with shear and a limited ITCZ by September. But again, a lot of unknowns.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I'm on Team USA for this one.

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It's a macro-pattern right now I've seen in the US with drought-no drought over the last 6 months. Irma a few years is a show of what can be done with potential energy, but the El Nino is getting ramped up lately too. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

10/20 lemon in the Gulf, not tropical feature.  1997 Super Nino, 4 June/July storms, none of tropical origin, before the season died, no storms in August, total of 7 for the season.  Not sure if there is a link between developing strong to super Ninos and early activity from non-tropical origin.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

10/20 lemon in the Gulf, not tropical feature.  1997 Super Nino, 4 June/July storms, none of tropical origin, before the season died, no storms in August, total of 7 for the season.  Not sure if there is a link between developing strong to super Ninos and early activity from non-tropical origin.

 I believe that on average that the # of May-June Gulf TS has been higher during oncoming/current El Niño vs other ENSO.

[Roger Smith]

Please note, forum season prediction contest closes end of day June 4th (06z June 5, 2023). 

NOAA forecast is 12-17, 5-9, 1-4 or median 14.5, 7.0, 2.5.

UK Met Office not buying into El Nino suppression and predict 20, 11, 5. UA also higher than expert consensus at 19, 9, 5. (I am saying 19, 12, 4 but not an expert)

CSU more conservative at 13, 6, 2. TWC saying 15, 7, 3. 

The contest is here in this sub-forum. I have invited weather nerds from UK and Irish weather forums to enter also. 

[NavarreDon]

Thoughts on 91L?

Edit: up to 50% on the 6/1 8am update.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

13 hours ago, NavarreDon said:

Thoughts on 91L?

Edit: up to 50% on the 6/1 8am update.

Airplane this afternoon.  Early activity in El Nino from non-tropical origins explained by Dr. Roundy

Quote

Breaking waves associated with the ENSO response shed cut off cyclones, which can gradually evolve into hybrid or tropical systems through tropical transition via latent heat release.

 

[Hotair]

stats for a named storm in June. 

[shaggy]

On 5/5/2023 at 5:32 PM, Windspeed said:

 

I'd disagree with this on principle. Suee the Atlantic is above average and there will be plenty of warm water for storms to feed off of. That however doesn't IMO mitigate shear because if the shear due to strong El Nino is strong it will simply blow those strong storms apart.

[DeltaPilot]

Looking like its slightly better "organized". More convection this am. Looks displaced eastward from center, but NHC put it at 50% this am.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

The Euro seasonal prediction of a high Atlantic ACE year is supported by the Euro seasonal SLP pressure forecast, but doesn't seem consistent which what appears to be an oncoming strong to Super Nino.  I don't trust it.

 

 

[Rhino16]

CSU Updated to 14/7/3 in the June 1st update.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-06.pdf

15/7/3 including the unnamed storm if I’m reading correctly.

[GaWx]

The 12Z GFS has a Gulf H coming up from the W Caribbean in week 2. This could very easily be a fake based on the last 5+ years of history of the GFS, but nobody can possibly have any idea this far out.

 I count 9 GFS runs in a row with a strong W Caribbean and/or Gulf TC for around that time. Then again, I've counted 20-25+ GFS runs in a row a few times over the last 5+ years in the W basin that ended up being a fake. Also, the EPS has had nothing the last few runs.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

The 12Z GFS has a Gulf H coming up from the W Caribbean in week 2. This could very easily be a fake based on the last 5+ years of history of the GFS, but nobody can possibly have any idea this far out.

 I count 9 GFS runs in a row with a strong W Caribbean and/or Gulf TC for around that time. Then again, I've counted 20-25+ GFS runs in a row a few times over the last 5+ years in the W basin that ended up being a fake. Also, the EPS has had nothing the last few runs.

10 or 15 years ago a pro-met poster on this forum, (Dr. Papin IIRC) said the GFS had a simplifying assumption (that is actually an engineering term, used them all the time in college) that heat released by condensation rose vertically with no consideration for wind, so any persistent convection (this was related to something in C. America) would also become warm core on the GFS model, even if upper level winds weren't favorable.  I think I remember that right.  I would assume in 10 or 15 years an assumption that leads to spurious TCs would have been corrected.  But maybe not.

 

I see the ensemble weekly precip anomaly from Tropical Tidnits on the GEFS for a Caribbean system, not so much GEPS or 0Z EPS.  But the last few seasons the GFS has scored the win on the Euro more than a few times on distant TC genesis.

[Torch Tiger]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

The 12Z GFS has a Gulf H coming up from the W Caribbean in week 2. This could very easily be a fake based on the last 5+ years of history of the GFS, but nobody can possibly have any idea this far out.

 I count 9 GFS runs in a row with a strong W Caribbean and/or Gulf TC for around that time. Then again, I've counted 20-25+ GFS runs in a row a few times over the last 5+ years in the W basin that ended up being a fake. Also, the EPS has had nothing the last few runs.

The 12z Euro op does have a little zygote N of S.A. by D10?

[Windspeed]

The pattern might actually support a Carla Cradle TC in a week or so but please keep in mind that it's just fantasy at this point. The GFS likes to make somethings out of that region but it must be taken with a grain of salt.