OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 10 minutes ago, mimillman said: MSP will know how we feel in 3-5 years Oh it’ll happen, I’m sure of it. There’s been some serious clunkers up here in the last 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulder Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 18z GFS looks like a carbon copy of 12z. Hard to spot differences in track or QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 2 hours ago, Harry said: I am here to get a south trend started. I hope.. Ofcourse I wouldn't mind getting deep into the warm sector either. You really want to lose power? I really don’t see the snow line getting south of I-96. Its either ice or plain rain south of I-94. I’ll be happy to eat my words as another south shift would put me in the solid snow zone as opposed to sleet. I-94 zone is f*ed if it stays below freezing. Good luck.☹️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 18z UKMET a tick north from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 9 minutes ago, frostfern said: You really want to lose power? I really don’t see the snow line getting south of I-96. Its either ice or plain rain south of I-94. I’ll be happy to eat my words as another south shift would put me in the solid snow zone as opposed to sleet. I-94 zone is f*ed if it stays below freezing. Good luck.☹️ Oh I certainly won't mind getting into the all rain zone. Having been around long enough I have seen sytems like this before take a decent shift in both directions inside of 48hrs. Much depends on where that front ends up, strength of high to north and how strong the first low is. With this we may not know till the 12z runs tomorrow as far as what kind of trend/adjustment we get. I suspect we will. Always do with these set ups. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Minneapolis officially received 1.7” of snow with the clipper this morning. Not sure if the NWS will include that in the official storm total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 5 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: Minneapolis officially received 1.7” of snow with the clipper this morning. Not sure if the NWS will include that in the official storm total. I wouldn't. There's a large break and it's not related to the upcoming system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 If nothing goes wrong, Minneapolis could receive more snow in this storm than anybody not in a lake effect zone south of ~42N has gotten all winter. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 13 minutes ago, Hoosier said: If nothing goes wrong, Minneapolis could receive more snow in this storm than anybody not in a lake effect zone south of ~42N has gotten all winter. FGEN band ends up way south like the GFS is showing and then somehow we get dry slotted or miss out on all the mesoscale features is the only way I see us not hitting totals well over 12” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 39 minutes ago, Hoosier said: If nothing goes wrong, Minneapolis could receive more snow in this storm than anybody not in a lake effect zone south of ~42N has gotten all winter. That graphic that showed a 90% chance at 18" there kind of cracked me up. A 90% chance at a 4" for northern IL would be like winning the lottery at this point lol. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 18z Euro ice 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: That graphic that showed a 90% chance at 18" there kind of cracked me up. A 90% chance at a 4" for northern IL would be like winning the lottery at this point lol. You can’t even point to climo at this point. It’s just blind luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 9 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 18z Euro ice Can you post the 2m temp map at 21z Wednesday time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, Natester said: Can you post the 2m temp map at 21z Wednesday time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Just now, ILSNOW said: Thanks. Much of that freezing rain is going to run off with temps so marginal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 36 degrees and 1-2” of rain is just about as miserable as it can get eh 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Just now, mimillman said: 36 degrees and 1-2” of rain is just about as miserable as it can get eh I'll see your 36 degrees and raise you 34 degrees and rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, Natester said: Thanks. Much of that freezing rain is going to run off with temps so marginal. I would agree, if temps end up a degree or two cooler though, it will not be pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2023 Author Share Posted February 21, 2023 5 minutes ago, mimillman said: 36 degrees and 1-2” of rain is just about as miserable as it can get eh Fwiw, I'm still running the stats on calendar days with highs in the 30s, 1"+ precip with less than 1" of snow in Chicago. Working backwards and found there were no such days in the 1990s. So it's only happened 3 times between 1990 and present. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: I would agree, if temps end up a degree or two cooler though, it will not be pretty. Yeah if below 31F. I have seen heavy freezing rain run off of power lines when the temp was 31F and the dew point in the mid 20s (January 10, 2020). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 7 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: I'll see your 36 degrees and raise you 34 degrees and rain. The euro says you’ll get into the 60s on Thursday for a minute. At least you have that possibly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, roardog said: The euro says you’ll get into the 60s on Thursday for a minute. At least you have that possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Last Thursday at approximately 4:30, it was 29/30° With moderate FZRA, and it was freezing quickly on contact. Fortunately it only lasted about 45 minutes to an hour but turned everything into ice for the evening and the glaze stuck to the trees (could hear the crunching on the wind). My immediate thought was, “enough of this.” A week later I see that could’ve just been the appetizer. One hope is that most of the QPF will fall earlier in the day as plain rain prior the temps slipping just under that point of instant accretion during the late afternoon/evening as precip wanes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 My P&C has been upped to 24.1” No words 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 38 minutes ago, Natester said: Thanks. Much of that freezing rain is going to run off with temps so marginal. It will be more of a runny rain in CR as opposed to a freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaserguy Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 My P&C has been upped to 24.1” No wordsMy point and click on the NWS website is 18-31”. Never thought I would see the day. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 just a test for the minny folks in the event.... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 25 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said: My point and click on the NWS website is 18-31”. Never thought I would see the day. . Living the dream. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 12 minutes ago, frostfern said: Living the dream. You had more or less the same with one or both LES events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 7 hours ago, WaryWarren said: My point and click has 18 inches total. fml! Are you really complaining about 18in? Lol. I haven't even got winter storm warning criteria this winter. Will gladly trade you. I would do anything to experience a storm like what Minneapolis is about to get. Truly incredible and rare event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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