Hoosier Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 00z Euro still has a window of sleet and snow in far northern IL. It actually rips for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Tomorrow round 1, with more mid week. Looks like I'll see around a foot or more on top of the foot of glacier imby by the end of the week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Short term models aren't showing much on the south end where part 2 would overlap. NAM for comparison: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 The P&C forecast imby is 21.1” 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 hot winter up there need a '93 style spring to set things off 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: hot winter up there need a '93 style spring to set things off The Mississippi was pretty darn low across the mid south last year. I’m all for going the other extreme this year. ready 2b buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Not sure who is writing the GRR AFDs lately but they have had some good ones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Puking snow here with this appetizer clipper. Models didn’t have a band of this strength making it this far south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 6z Euro nudged south a tad with the overall snowfall totals. Still, MSP sitting pretty close to the highest totals. Amazing consistency on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Hoping this is wrong as RC pointed out the model has fake snow on the ground which should/will affect the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Eziest toss of da year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toro99 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 3 hours ago, WestMichigan said: Not sure who is writing the GRR AFDs lately but they have had some good ones. Seriously, borderline theatrical. Chat gpt writing AFDs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 21 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Hoping this is wrong as RC pointed out the model has fake snow on the ground which should/will affect the temps. NAM well north with the cold stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 2" so far my way. Looks nice seeing pure white again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Canadian isn't too far off the GFS, but the NAM and short range models are way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 Somebody fix the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 48 minutes ago, WestMichigan said: Canadian isn't too far off the GFS, but the NAM and short range models are way north. RAP has the warm front at I-80 at 18z Wed. Not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Not sure what the Ukie is smoking too showing snow in NE IL now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Somebody fix the GFS Would be an insane and catastrophic ice storm for the metro. Im planning for some sort of brief frozen precip, but with the WTOD routinely over performing, I’m not sold on extensive ice across LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 I wouldn't be surprised to see the NAM/RAP/HRRR go south in future runs. Hopefully still has Cedar Rapids barely above freezing for most of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 19 minutes ago, Hoosier said: RAP has the warm front at I-80 at 18z Wed. Not happening. RAP way too fast with the lead low. Yeah, not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 Maybe Ricky or somebody can clairfy this... but according to my reading of FRAM, it doesn't account for max temp (or max wet bulb temp) aloft? Definitely have some competing factors with this ice event. Decent winds, which is a positive for offsetting the latent heat release. But heavy rates tend to not accrete well and the magnitude of the warm nose aloft won't help in areas where that's very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 *slightly off topic* one thing I’ve noticed since moving to this regional board is that there’s a lot of discussion about latest/different models… but no screenshots to go with the post. So I have to kind of look around online to see which model you’re talking about. Just sorta wondering why folks don’t attach a quick pic of model (or at least link) so we can easily correlate post with visual. *end of off topic, carry on* 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 12z Euro slightly warmer and cuts ice totals in chicago area in 1/2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 Euro really cut total qpf around Chicago northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Classic modern era euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Euro really cut total qpf around Chicago northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Final call: cold rain. Going to be a doozy of an ice storm just about a county or two north though. Might be close enough to look around before work Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Final call: cold rain. Going to be a doozy of an ice storm just about a county or two north though. Might be close enough to look around before work Thursday morning. Seriously think I might nab a personal record for amount of rain with temps in the mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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