February 21-23 Major Winter Storm

[ILSNOW]

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

That sounding says valid next Saturday?

corrected

 

[frostfern]

1 hour ago, ILSNOW said:

12z UKMET is much colder than other models

 

I wish. F ice.

[ILSNOW]

scary ice numbers over Michigan

[cyclone77]

The models seem unusually consistent so far in the placement of the heavy snow swath from MN to MI.  Why can't they be like that for us poor folks further south?  

[steve23guy]

This is gonna be a sloppy mess no matter how it tracks its looking like .. YUCK

 

[sbnwx85]

I’m leaning toward a cold rain here but occasionally a GFS or Euro run gets ice south of the Michigan border…it’s enough to keep me invested. A shift south by 30-50 miles would put me in the worst of the freezing rain. For now, I-94 in Michigan looks like it will get hit the hardest with ice. 

[Hoosier]

15 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

scary ice numbers over Michigan

Can you post the FRAM version?

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

The models seem unusually consistent so far in the placement of the heavy snow swath from MN to MI.  Why can't they be like that for us poor folks further south?  

I keep thinking it would be comical if we start to see more model divergence in the next day or two... considering how seemingly locked in this thing has been.

[ILSNOW]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Can you post the FRAM version?

 

why is there a big difference between the 2 ?

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

 

why is there a big difference between the 2 ?

Basically FRAM actually tries to figure out how much ice accrual there will be, vs the other map which is just qpf at temps 32 and below.

[Hoosier]

To see Euro FRAM with amounts like that is concerning, especially for Michigan.  That being said, still some time for changes.  

[Geoboy645]

Meanwhile up here we are going to get absolutely buried if these trends keep holding. Just an insane amount of snow. I've only experienced this amount of snow once with the 12/20/12 blizzard. So to potentially do that again and then add a couple more inches would be unimaginable. Especially since I don't have to worry about shoveling or driving in it. Also this would smash a lot of 1 and 2 day snowfall records across most of the state.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

5 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said:

Meanwhile up here we are going to get absolutely buried if these trends keep holding. Just an insane amount of snow. I've only experienced this amount of snow once with the 12/20/12 blizzard. So to potentially do that again and then add a couple more inches would be unimaginable. Especially since I don't have to worry about shoveling or driving in it. Also this would smash a lot of 1 and 2 day snowfall records across most of the state.

That would be the all time largest snowstorm in Minneapolis if it verifies. Word is getting out to the general public, panic buying of typical staple foods is underway. 

[SolidIcewx]

On the plus side for I94 folks and north is that it goes to rain and warms into the upper 40s before it drops again Thursday night

[sbnwx85]

3 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

On the plus side for I94 folks and north is that it goes to rain and warms into the upper 40s before it drops again Thursday night

That is a blessing. I’ve been in an ice storm in January 2001 where half of an inch of ice accrued and temps stayed below freezing for over a week. Took several days to restore power. 

[Jonger]

Could be wild around here. 1.25 liquid falling on my neighborhood while temps are in the upper 20s.

[magoos0728]

22 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

That would be the all time largest snowstorm in Minneapolis if it verifies. Word is getting out to the general public, panic buying of typical staple foods is underway. 

Hopefully not Atlanta stupid. One of the many funny things about living in the ATL is watching people hoard bread and bottled water in the run up to a dusting of snow or a tropical depression pushing thru. Although I will say driving anywhere in the Atlanta metro with a dusting is ridiculously unsafe due to the hilly terrain.

Breathe, prepare, hunker down. Don't be ATL stupid. 

[Sciascia]

Ice accumulation would/will suck. I guess this is the time we hope for “SE & weaker” trends as we get closer.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

17 minutes ago, magoos0728 said:

Breathe, prepare, hunker down. Don't be ATL stupid. 

It may have just been more people getting their weekly shopping done today in preparation but shelves were emptier then usual. We’ve already had one 15” storm this season. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

The latest from my favorite NWS meteorologist not named Ricky.

 

 

[Hoosier]

59 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

On the plus side for I94 folks and north is that it goes to rain and warms into the upper 40s before it drops again Thursday night

That's true, but the reason it could get that warm is because of the approach of the second low.  The winds ramp up with that, which could lead to a window post-icing where it's very windy on ice-stressed trees before it all has a chance to melt.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Waiting for model weakening and qpf lowering, as is tradition 

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Waiting for model weakening and qpf lowering, as is tradition 

Early indication of a southward nudge on the 18z NAM.  

[Hoosier]

For much of the icing area, it looks like there is about a 3-6 hour window between temps going above freezing and the onset of the stronger winds on Thursday.  Melting off of the trees should be fairly slow until it can get several degrees above freezing and into the 40s.  Where significant ice accrual occurs, that is likely not going to be enough time to melt off a lot of ice prior to arrival of stronger winds.  But small details like this will matter.

[RCNYILWX]

If you don't want ice in the LOT CWA, a southward trend won't help us, as it would just shift the sleet and icing zones farther south across more of the metro and surrounding areas.

Need a substantial jump south to get significant snow into the CWA, which seems rather unlikely at this point. Still certainly enough time for adjustments north and south in the "wintry mess" zone though. The 12z EPS for instance did nudge south on Wednesday-Wednesday evening with the 850 mb warmth, plus the surface low/trough and front position, while the GEFS nudged slightly north.

These 12z changes notwithstanding, I'd hedge south with the frontal position on Wednesday, as long as the lead surface wave remains flatter. The warm sector will be potent for this time of year, but plenty of precip in the vicinity of the front, plus the cooler dense air north of the front often wins out even in spring setups, while in this case the air mass north will be supplied by 1035+ mb high pressure to the north.

[Hoosier]

21 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

If you don't want ice in the LOT CWA, a southward trend won't help us, as it would just shift the sleet and icing zones farther south across more of the metro and surrounding areas.

Need a substantial jump south to get significant snow into the CWA, which seems rather unlikely at this point. Still certainly enough time for adjustments north and south in the "wintry mess" zone though. The 12z EPS for instance did nudge south on Wednesday-Wednesday evening with the 850 mb warmth, plus the surface low/trough and front position, while the GEFS nudged slightly north.

These 12z changes notwithstanding, I'd hedge south with the frontal position on Wednesday, as long as the lead surface wave remains flatter. The warm sector will be potent for this time of year, but plenty of precip in the vicinity of the front, plus the cooler dense air north of the front often wins out even in spring setups, while in this case the air mass north will be supplied by 1035+ mb high pressure to the north.






 

Makes sense.  Honestly I feel like if we do see adjustments from here on out, it's more likely to be south and not north.  But it's wx so who knows lol

[sbnwx85]

18z GFS says maybe it’s time for me to invest in a generator.

 

[Hoosier]

20 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

18z GFS says maybe it’s time for me to invest in a generator.

 

GFS was already a colder outlier, and now it's even more outliery in that regard.  

That does show something I have been wondering though.  LOT's main focus for ice has been on far northern IL/near the WI border, but there's a scenario where just enough low level cold air drains into the northeast cwa, particularly Porter county, for icing potential.  

[OrdIowPitMsp]

I recommend reading the afternoon discussion from MPX. Quality weenie material. 

[Hoosier]

The arrival of heavier precip rates is timed better around/after dark for lower Michigan than areas farther west.  Parts of Michigan will be sub 30 degrees when those heavier rates arrive.  Will be an interesting battle to see how much accretes vs how much runs off, but I'd prepare for the worst.