Hoosier Posted February 18, 2023 Author Share Posted February 18, 2023 18 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: I'd recommend grabbing the winter sounding from COD (just have to select winter and generate new sounding) or go to Pivotal Weather which automatically will give a winter sounding. On the bottom right of the winter soundings, you'll see layer energy information, which is the Bourgoin method to determine precipitation types. It's analogous to CAPE and DCAPE, positive energy aloft and negative energy low level. The precip. type tab in BUFKIT uses the Bourgoin method. Any positive energy of 25+ J/kg represents full melting, while sleet probabilities increase at -75 J/kg and below. Even with high positive energies (near or above 100 J/kg), negative energies of -100 J/kg or lower tend to allow for sleet to at least mix in and the higher magnitude negative energies can overcome high positive energies to result in primarily sleet. The preferred profile to use is the wet bulb vs. solely temperature based profile. Two examples of this from the 12z ECMWF below, first from interior far northeast IL and the other from near the state line on WI side of the border. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Thanks! Kinda embarrassed to say that I didn't know COD had that winter selection lol. I was basically eyeballing the positive/negative energies on the soundings, but it's nice to have numbers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: I'd recommend grabbing the winter sounding from COD (just have to select winter and generate new sounding) or go to Pivotal Weather which automatically will give a winter sounding. On the bottom right of the winter soundings, you'll see layer energy information, which is the Bourgoin method to determine precipitation types. It's analogous to CAPE and DCAPE, positive energy aloft and negative energy low level. The precip. type tab in BUFKIT uses the Bourgoin method. Any positive energy of 25+ J/kg represents full melting, while sleet probabilities increase at -75 J/kg and below. Even with high positive energies (near or above 100 J/kg), negative energies of -100 J/kg or lower tend to allow for sleet to at least mix in and the higher magnitude negative energies can overcome high positive energies to result in primarily sleet. The preferred profile to use is the wet bulb vs. solely temperature based profile. Two examples of this from the 12z ECMWF below, first from interior far northeast IL and the other from near the state line on WI side of the border. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Is it even possible to get a low-level hodo like that in a warm sector with CAPE? Where the wind goes from ENE at the surface to SW at 1KM? And those SRH numbers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2023 Author Share Posted February 18, 2023 GRR weenied out a touch in their afternoon afd. Specifically about the Canadian and its sleet. Good points though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2023 Author Share Posted February 18, 2023 The GFS solution would be pretty wild, especially in parts of MI. Lots of ice, which would be followed by quickly melting/falling ice courtesy of very strong winds as the trailing surface low of decent depth passes nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 You can tell Hoosier's excited for this system lol 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said: Is it even possible to get a low-level hodo like that in a warm sector with CAPE? Where the wind goes from ENE at the surface to SW at 1KM? And those SRH numbers... It happens commonly where there is terrain influenced flow, like Colorado. Denver area gets some wild looking hodos. It seems more difficult outside of the plains though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2023 Author Share Posted February 18, 2023 14 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: You can tell Hoosier's excited for this system lol Tryin for 50k by the end of this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 37 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The GFS solution would be pretty wild, especially in parts of MI. Lots of ice, which would be followed by quickly melting/falling ice courtesy of very strong winds as the trailing surface low of decent depth passes nw. It's kind of a complicated situation with the lead low having most of the moisture. On the GFS there's a definite break between the initial surge of overrunning precip and the main low. I don't know if that will help much though. The warm sector looks mostly dry, but there could be one of those narrow lines of convective showers right by the cold/occluded front that pulls some strong gusts down to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 There was one ice storm I remember from the vaunted winter of 2013-'14 where I came out to leave for work one night (3AM start) and found my car completely encased in about 1/4" of solid ice. That was a fun nearly half hour of chipping and scraping. Still waiting to top that, now that I live at an apartment complex with indoor parking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2023 Author Share Posted February 19, 2023 3 hours ago, frostfern said: It's kind of a complicated situation with the lead low having most of the moisture. On the GFS there's a definite break between the initial surge of overrunning precip and the main low. I don't know if that will help much though. The warm sector looks mostly dry, but there could be one of those narrow lines of convective showers right by the cold/occluded front that pulls some strong gusts down to the surface. Also have some uncertainty on the exact track of the second low. The first wave is pretty well agreed upon to go through central IL/IN and into Ohio, staying south of Michigan. ECMWF and Canadian aren't as far north as the GFS is with the trailing low, and the best winds with that should occur near/south of its track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 50 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Also have some uncertainty on the exact track of the second low. The first wave is pretty well agreed upon to go through central IL/IN and into Ohio, staying south of Michigan. ECMWF and Canadian aren't as far north as the GFS is with the trailing low, and the best winds with that should occur near/south of its track. The strength of the northern stream system is kind of in question too. There's a lot of baroclinicity, but the wave itself is not very compact. The lead southern stream low pulls a lot of moisture north, but it doesn't really deepen the broad upper-level system ejecting from the SW. The phasing isn't very constructive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Looking like a 34 degree rainer for the QCA. Wish we could fast forward to May. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2023 Author Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: Looking like a 34 degree rainer for the QCA. Wish we could fast forward to May. March will be rocking. Probably in MSP again. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2023 Author Share Posted February 19, 2023 This Thursday wind setup is looking good. Solid advisory criteria with a shot to go higher in some spots. Mixing could be excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Euro holding steady dropping 2’ imby by next Friday morning. Hard to sleep with such run to run consistency. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Hail to the king 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: Euro holding steady dropping 2’ imby by next Friday morning. Hard to sleep with such run to run consistency. yup. too good to be true. You sleep with one eye open waiting for the first sign of trouble. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 The ice accretion is concerning. Those amounts can go kick rocks of it came into fruition lol. Looking like a hella nice snow for parts of the sub happy to see that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 GFS is a touch south at 12z. Canadian a touch north. Some relatively minor run-to-run variability but overall each model has been really consistent since Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toro99 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Omg, the overnight GRR write up is worth a read 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 6 minutes ago, Toro99 said: Omg, the overnight GRR write up is worth a read Weed is legal in Michigan... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 12z UKMET is much colder than other models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 19 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Weed is legal in Michigan... Damn right gonna need it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 42 minutes ago, Toro99 said: Omg, the overnight GRR write up is worth a read That was quite the read. Interesting language they are using. I work for a power company in SE mich and how some of our power lines look and some of the 60 year old poles we have. The area would be in for some deep trouble if current forecasts hold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2023 Author Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 hour ago, sbnwx85 said: GFS is a touch south at 12z. Canadian a touch north. Some relatively minor run-to-run variability but overall each model has been really consistent since Friday. Was surprised to see the GFS even trying to paint a little ice here. Seems like an outlier at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2023 Author Share Posted February 19, 2023 22 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 12z UKMET is much colder than other models Something seems off about that. Based on the 850 mb temp maps, there shouldn't be that much snow that far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 corrected to read 84 hrs agree here is the sounding for the area that it paints 8 inches of snow (soundings indicate freezing rain) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2023 Author Share Posted February 19, 2023 This mid-level jet is a freakshow. 500 mb winds of 130-140 kts on Thursday. Hardly ever see that in this region, with the most notorious occurrence probably being on 4/11/1965. To be clear, I'm not predicting an outbreak like that or anything close to it. Only comparing the wind speeds. Thursday is sort of an atypical high wind setup with a relatively modest surface low (maybe not much below 1000 mb) and lack of a stronger surface high. So much wind aloft though and the pressure gradient that we do have is packed in pretty nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2023 Author Share Posted February 19, 2023 8 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: agree here is the sounding for the area that it paints 8 inches of snow (soundings indicate freezing rain) That sounding says valid next Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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