Harry Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 The goofy maps I am seeing is assuming it's all snow here nearing 18 inches with a sharp cut off at the county border to the south. Sigh.. I know that's bs. Gonna ask them about some ice maps for this kind of stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, Harry said: And like GRR I think those icing maps etc are too low.. Gotta expect some bumps with the overnight issuance. I don't have a good feel for how robust the grid is since I'm new there and the wx has been mostly a snooze-fest in every season. Marshall was pretty robust with their own power generation system. It took a lot of trees coming down to be in the dark (May 2011 near twister, 11-13-17 severe). I have no benchmark. All I know is if my wife and pets are sitting in the dark unheated apartment, that'd be a bad thing. At least with the place in Marshall we could fire up a couple burners on the gas stove for a little bit of heat. Did that more than once. No such option now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mollydog Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 SE MI forecast is so damn tricky with this one. Last real ice storm here (not counting minor glazing) was Apr 15, 2018. And before that it had been several years. Ironically the most ice storms were centered around the least snowy decade (1940s). Last major in Oakland County was Apr 2003. Missed out on Christmas 2013. Mostly lapeer. Totally not stressing on this one! . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mollydog Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 SE MI forecast is so damn tricky with this one. Last real ice storm here (not counting minor glazing) was Apr 15, 2018. And before that it had been several years. Ironically the most ice storms were centered around the least snowy decade (1940s). Last major in Oakland County was Apr 2003. Missed out on Christmas 2013. Mostly lapeer. Totally not stressing on this one! . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Powerball said: Looks to be about the same as the 12z run. The 850 0 line does hang around longer and briefly drops south of here during the heaviest stuff. Had been staying north of here. So I figured it's possibly more snowy or sleety vs earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, RogueWaves said: Gotta expect some bumps with the overnight issuance. I don't have a good feel for how robust the grid is since I'm new there and the wx has been mostly a snooze-fest in every season. Marshall was pretty robust with their own power generation system. It took a lot of trees coming down to be in the dark (May 2011 near twister, 11-13-17 severe). I have no benchmark. All I know is if my wife and pets are sitting in the dark unheated apartment, that'd be a bad thing. At least with the place in Marshall we could fire up a couple burners on the gas stove for a little bit of heat. Did that more than once. No such option now. Yeah I keep forgetting about the ole stove. Thankfully this house does have a fireplace as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Can anyone name a storm that had more counties of MI in a winter headline?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 24 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Explains why I didn't remember April of 2018. Apparently south (Marshall) was spared. The April 2018 ice storm here had lots of ice accretion on trees and grass but minimal pavement. And I do want to stand corrected we also had a February 2019 ice storm but I was up North during it. So that would be the last real ice storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Can anyone name a storm that had more counties of MI in a winter headline?? Maybe January 1978? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Can anyone name a storm that had more counties of MI in a winter headline?? Technically lol Dec 22, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Can anyone name a storm that had more counties of MI in a winter headline?? Thinking back, I do remember the entire upper and lower peninsula having a winter storm warning.. but the date is evading me. Maybe one of the GHD systems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, Harry Perry said: Thinking back, I do remember the entire upper and lower peninsula having a winter storm warning.. but the date is evading me. Maybe one of the GHD systems? The UP and far Northern Lower Michigan were shut out from both GHD storms... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said: Technically lol Dec 22, 2022 Our great winter of 22-23. Highly regarded for mega-storms top to bottom! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Dallas was near 90 today, and it’s currently -18 in Bottineau ND. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, Powerball said: Maybe January 1978? That's the closest true mega-storm I can think of. Would need some confirmation on west half of Yoopland. I know the eastern UP got under headlines for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, beavis1729 said: Dallas was near 90 today, and it’s currently -18 in Bottineau ND. Not bad. Which one? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: Dallas was near 90 today, and it’s currently -18 in Bottineau ND. Not bad. DFW did hit 90*F, not just near. What's crazy though is that isn't even a record high (which is currently 95*F). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Which one? With the windy conditions and low sun angle, today's 90*F didn't feel bad at all. But -18*F will never *NOT* feel disgusting under any circumstance, lol... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Our great winter of 22-23. Highly regarded for mega-storms top to bottom! Hey you said winter headline lol. Jokes aside there's probably been more than you think of with some sort of headline. I think Jan 1999 was a statewide storm. But obviously many storms that do well for us don't do much for the rest of the state (most recent example Jan 25th) and most storms that do well elsewhere screw us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard22 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 The April 2018 ice storm here had lots of ice accretion on trees and grass but minimal pavement. And I do want to stand corrected we also had a February 2019 ice storm but I was up North during it. So that would be the last real ice storm here.Are ice storms rare there in April ?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, Blizzard22 said: Are ice storms rare there in April ? . Yes. It's the only one I can recall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 11 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Which one? Ha ha…not often you see a 108 degree gradient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 APX snippet. Wish I could just phone work and stay up here, lol. If we do manage to get the stronger gusts as guidance suggests...in combination with the potential for intense snowfall Wednesday night...not out of the question visibilities could drop to 1/4 mi or less...which would put us pretty close to blizzard conditions at times overnight. Additional concern with the winds is that if we are able to get into the ice at all...suspect winds will be efficient at helping ice accumulate on surfaces. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Local news stations are now calling for Hillsdale to get 0.25 to 0.5, a lot more than the current IWX forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Local news stations are now calling for Hillsdale to get 0.25 to 0.5, a lot more than the current IWX forecast I think they're right. The only good thing is temps are expected to get way above freezing Thursday. Doesn't stop the damage during the event, but it's better than just plunging into the deep freeze as so often happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 big picture of radar/ observations 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 22/0z RGEM pounding Metro Detroit with snow tomorrow noon Then proceeds to destroy with ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2023 Author Share Posted February 22, 2023 56 minutes ago, Natester said: Well, it's already 31F here based on the observations from several PWS in the Cedar Rapids area. The HRRR and the NAM had Cedar Rapids in the upper 20s at this time. EDIT: Cedar Rapids Airport reporting a temp of 31F at 10 PM. Clouds helping to keep temps from dropping. You also want to look at dews/wet bulb temps. Still have a decent temp/dewpoint spread at CID with dews in the lower 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 21 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: 22/0z RGEM pounding Metro Detroit with snow tomorrow noon Then proceeds to destroy with ZR I am gonna have a backyard full of downed trees and power lines . Ugh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2023 Author Share Posted February 22, 2023 When you look at current dewpoints, it's almost hard to believe that we will have dews in the low 30s in parts of northern IL/IN in about 7-10 hours... as these areas will be north of the warm front. But aloft, we have massive moisture transport from the southwest. You can run a loop of 850 mb dewpoints to get a sense of that. So I expect those types of dews (or at least something close to that) to pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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