Harry Perry Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 30 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: 00z Hrrr now has ice amounts flirting with warning territory for Wayne county Atleast the HRRR isn’t that bad compared to other guidance. Wouldn’t be too prolific if that run verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: Atleast the HRRR isn’t that bad compared to other guidance. Wouldn’t be too prolific if that run verifies. Maybe not for Calhoun. Remember, we dodged a major bullet with the Dec 2013 ice storm. Might be time to pay for that. Dec '06 almost took me out (nearly totalled my ride). That's the last bad one I remember for Calhoun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Last 4 runs of the NAM centered around 0z Thursday. Ice-Ice baby! Then you get Euro crushing I94 if temps hold down 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 NAM and HRR will catch on by 12z. At least we knew early as usual to toss them like all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 @ euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 11 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Maybe not for Calhoun. Remember, we dodged a major bullet with the Dec 2013 ice storm. Might be time to pay for that. You make a valid point, it’s been a while since we’ve had a doozy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Overnight read from DTX should be kinda interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: You make a valid point, it’s been a while since we’ve had a doozy. I edited my post to say the last bad one I remember for Calhoun was Dec of 2006. There were one or two more in early '07 and a minor one during the mid-Feb 2011 storm. Dec '06 could've cost me my life as I drove my car straight through a massive tree downed across the entire road in the dark. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: I edited my post to say the last bad one I remember for Calhoun was Dec of 2006. There were one or two more in early '07 and a minor one during the mid-Feb 2011 storm. Dec '06 could've cost me my life as I drove my car straight through a massive tree downed across the entire road in the dark. Wow, glad you’re alright. Where about was that? I remember that storm well. Massive trees uprooted everywhere, almost looked like wind damage from a severe storm vs. ice storm. Lots of damage along M-37 toward Bedford. Went to my grandfathers to check on him and see if he needed a generator (behind Rombaughs auto sales) and it was like a scene out of a movie - every tree on his property was nearly bent over backwards. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Looks like it’s time to pay our taxes due 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 17 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: I edited my post to say the last bad one I remember for Calhoun was Dec of 2006. There were one or two more in early '07 and a minor one during the mid-Feb 2011 storm. Dec '06 could've cost me my life as I drove my car straight through a massive tree downed across the entire road in the dark. The best thing about that winter was that lake length les band that got pulled in our way via that meso low. Ofcourse that ice storm in April a few years back ( 17 or 18? ) sucked as it took out half a tree that crashed through my deck railing and deck out back but thankfully soft landed on the house. Terrible sound when it crash landed and thought it had taken out my bathroom window upstairs which thankfully didn't. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Not liking the trends tonight for Wayne County... I think like some are saying it's time to pay over due payments. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 hour ago, RogueWaves said: If DTW and Wyandotte had my numbers (in red) you wouldn't be quite so chipper. And this year isn't going any where, sorry. Doubtful I hit 20" I'm sorry you were in a screw hole. My main point was the past several winters in most of SE MI were near climo (actually slightly snowier than climo at most stations last winter). This winter is not. And a sucky winter doesn't mean nothing happens in mar/apr. Maybe we go the rest of the way with no more measurable snow. Maybe we get a huge snowstorm. Or more than likely somewhere in between. You must be awfully close to 20, so you'll likely hit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Funny part is one of the reasons I bought this house was because of all the trees along the edges/fence but yeah I am regretting that now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, Harry said: The best thing about that winter was that lake length les band that got pulled in our way via that meso low. Ofcourse that ice storm in April a few years back ( 17 or 18? ) sucked as it took out half a tree that crashed through my deck railing and deck out back but thankfully soft landed on the house. Terrible sound when it crash landed and thought it had taken out my bathroom window upstairs which thankfully didn't. Damn, that’s no good. That storm (believe it was 2018), was strange around here. You could go out Pennfield/Bellevue and it was awful, but the minute you turned onto Raymond Rd and headed south to Michigan Ave, very little in the way of ice. Two different worlds minutes apart. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 SE MI forecast is so damn tricky with this one. Last real ice storm here (not counting minor glazing) was Apr 15, 2018. And before that it had been several years. Ironically the most ice storms were centered around the least snowy decade (1940s). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 14 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: SE MI forecast is so damn tricky with this one. Last real ice storm here (not counting minor glazing) was Apr 15, 2018. And before that it had been several years. Ironically the most ice storms were centered around the least snowy decade (1940s). I definitely think IWX and DTX will be adding and expanding overnight looking at the majority of the 00z data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Ready for some pingers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 30 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: Damn, that’s no good. That storm (believe it was 2018), was strange around here. You could go out Pennfield/Bellevue and it was awful, but the minute you turned onto Raymond Rd and headed south to Michigan Ave, very little in the way of ice. Two different worlds minutes apart. Yep so you can guess where I am. Other then this one ocean effect snowstorm I have never seen such drastic cut offs with ice, snow etc till I moved here. Look at that November Les event. 21 this part of town ( north ) vs a few inches out by/just south of Beckley. Have seen the reverse as well when I first moved here. Crazy stuff. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 20 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: I definitely think IWX and DTX will be adding and expanding overnight looking at the majority of the 00z data. They need to. GRR needs to up ice amounts as well around here unfortunately. And remove the mention of rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 49 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: Wow, glad you’re alright. Where about was that? I remember that storm well. Massive trees uprooted everywhere, almost looked like wind damage from a severe storm vs. ice storm. Lots of damage along M-37 toward Bedford. Went to my grandfathers to check on him and see if he needed a generator (behind Rombaughs auto sales) and it was like a scene out of a movie - every tree on his property was nearly bent over backwards. I drove through the tree in Albion. The same morning a Marshall fireman did the same thing north of Marshall and was killed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, Harry said: They need to. GRR needs to up ice amounts as well around here unfortunately. And remove the mention of rain. People here might be getting a big shock going from 0.1 to whatever they might up it to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, Harry said: Yep so you can guess where I am. Other then this one ocean effect snowstorm I have never seen such drastic cut offs with ice, snow etc till I moved here. Look at that November Les event. 21 this part of town ( north ) vs a few inches out by/just south of Beckley. Have seen the reverse as well when I first moved here. Crazy stuff. Explains why I didn't remember April of 2018. Apparently south (Marshall) was spared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 So technically, DTX's icing map actually already has the far NW corner of Wayne (aka mby) in the same shading as those to my SW in the ISW. Not liking this at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 This would be one of the worst ice storms ever for Detroit if the 00z models are right. Definitely a bit more concerning now given that we're less than 24 hours from the onset of precip. That said, several things could still happen to make for a better outcome. 1. More snow/sleet at the onset (with a slower transition). 2. Less total QPF (00z models were at least drier than prior runs). 3. Surface temps are being underestimated by models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: So technically, DTX's icing map actually already has the far NW corner of Wayne (aka mby) in the same shading as those to my SW in the ISW. Not liking this at all. And like GRR I think those icing maps etc are too low.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, Powerball said: This would be one of the worst ice storms ever for Detroit if the 00z models are right. Definitely a bit more concerning now given that we're less than 24 hours from the onset of precip. That said, several things could still happen to make for a better outcome. 1. More snow/sleet at the onset. 2. Less total QPF (00z models were atleast drier than prior runs). 3. Surface temps are being underestimated by models. I'll take anything at this point.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Well, it's already 31F here based on the observations from several PWS in the Cedar Rapids area. The HRRR and the NAM had Cedar Rapids in the upper 20s at this time. EDIT: Cedar Rapids Airport reporting a temp of 31F at 10 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 00z GFS actually looked more snowy/sleety. Hope someone can confirm this with those ice maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Looks to be about the same as the 12z run. 1 minute ago, Harry said: 00z GFS actually looked more snowy/sleety. Hope someone can confirm this with those ice maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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