Hoosier Posted February 21, 2023 Author Share Posted February 21, 2023 Alek nightmare scenario 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Alek nightmare scenario I would be sitting pretty if it was all snow! It will help with the abnormally dry conditions here, especially since the ground is thawed in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 IWX is betting on Branch and Hillsdale only getting .1 of ice but if the south trend continues they might have to do a pretty big increase 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Early look at 22z HRRR is showing a slight north tick in terms of above freezing temps in Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 39° and thunderstorms. Yum "Rain, with thunderstorms also possible after 4pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 39." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 The break in the snow looks nonexistent at this point which means more snow. This is just tonight. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 18z Euro FRAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imneversatisfied Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 NWS issued a winter storm warning for me this evening here in Alpena, starting at 1pm Wednesday thru 7pm Thursday. Forecasted to get 7" to 12" with 30mph winds off Lake Huron which should enhance snowfall. I'm ready to be buried!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, ILSNOW said: 18z Euro FRAM Not liking the looks of that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 18z Euro FRAM Ice misses by about 20 miles from here according to that. That probably means we should nestle right in the 33-34 degree range during the event. Definitely gonna be a miserable day tomorrow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: Not liking the looks of that. We are screwed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 24 minutes ago, Harry said: We are screwed. Let’s get the ice skates out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: I would hardly call the winter one long dreary autumn in SMI, even tho you got locally screwed in your first winter in SE MI and last winter in SW MI. Hell in 2021 I had 15" depth and 2+ foot drifts in my yard in Feb. For Detroit officially, the last 3 winters finished very close to climo snow-wise. 2021-22: 47.1" (35.6") ...50 days w/ 1"+ snowcover 2020-21: 44.9" (36.2") ...48 days " " 2019-20: 43.7"...41 days " " For comparison, current 30-year normals are 45.0" snow, 47 days 1"+ snowcover and longterm avg is 41" snow, 50 days. So while I understand your backyard locally had been screwed to an extent, the last 3 winters in the Detroit area were climo winters which circles back to what Harry alluded to. After so many years being spoiled the 1st 2 decades of this century, average is not acceptable for a snow weenie. Obviously this winter sucks. But with a while to go, it's going to end up in the sucky and forgettable category, not futility If DTW and Wyandotte had my numbers (in red) you wouldn't be quite so chipper. And this year isn't going any where, sorry. Doubtful I hit 20" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 45 minutes ago, Harry said: We are screwed. Unless DTX's current forecast is a bust (in an icy way), it looks like cozy Wayne will allow me to escape the dreaded power outages that look immenent beginning just to my west (Washtenaw) and back your way along 94. Meanwhile, expecting 2-3" here by morning, then snow continues all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 The middle to high end range of their forecast ice amounts would be warning criteria. Will be interesting to see the reasoning in the afd.I definitely struggled decision wise, considering DVN had hoisted the ISW including Stephenson County. Competing factors lowered confidence in how much ice would actually accumulate and cause impacts. With how mild it's been, if the more robust warm nose verifies farther north, if temps are marginal the whole time, etc. I'm concerned given the colder and icier trend on the guidance today, but also didn't have 80% confidence in occurrence of widespread 0.25" accums. Official forecast has a couple spots from northwestern Lake across Northern half of Winnebago with ~0.3". Ice Storm Warnings are rare around here, so I didn't want to jump into a warning with lower confidence due to a still plausible scenario where impacts are minimal. Feel confident that the midnight shift will upgrade if warranted. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sielicki Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Can any of you guys make fancy animated gifs that keep the valid time constant but shows the change from run to run? feels like the models had consensus on this days ago and it hasn’t hardly budged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1.1” accumulation as of 6pm. Looks like another 2-4” overnight before the main show tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 36 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: Let’s get the ice skates out How I'll be getting to work.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Harry said: How I'll be getting to work.. that’s on my mind too Thursday morning if cooler trends prevail 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: that’s on my mind too Thursday morning if cooler trends prevail And you've got some hills in AA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Going to hope for a rumble of thunder tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 33 minutes ago, sielicki said: Can any of you guys make fancy animated gifs that keep the valid time constant but shows the change from run to run? feels like the models had consensus on this days ago and it hasn’t hardly budged. Here's a website to do it with NAM currently selected. Example: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 00z Hrrr now has ice amounts flirting with warning territory for Wayne county 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 12 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: 00z Hrrr now has ice amounts flirting with warning territory for Wayne county Uggh. All the latest maps are concerning to say the least. I am far NW Wayne, so if there is one spot of the county that could lean warning, that would be the place. Last week's storm trended just far enough south to get us a nice tree glazing and some icy car tops. This following the same trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 59 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Unless DTX's current forecast is a bust (in an icy way), it looks like cozy Wayne will allow me to escape the dreaded power outages that look immenent beginning just to my west (Washtenaw) and back your way along 94. Meanwhile, expecting 2-3" here by morning, then snow continues all day. Where is "here?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 0z NAM is ugly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, Powerball said: Where is "here?" I'm up in Traverse attm. Oh, and I'm supposed to get home tomorrow through this: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Servicing my generator for this ice storm to not materialize tomorrow, y’all can thank me later 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Harry Perry said: Servicing my generator for this ice storm to not materialize tomorrow, y’all can thank me later Sun shines on the dogs ass once in awhile 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Last 4 runs of the NAM centered around 0z Thursday. Ice-Ice baby! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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