February 21-23 Major Winter Storm

[UMB WX]

4 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Rainer.

 

[hardypalmguy]

3 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

 

Ice is south, snow is north.  What's left?

[UMB WX]

Just now, hardypalmguy said:

Ice is south, snow is north.  What's left?

Your first 70 degree day on Mothers Day weekend?

[Natester]

What i'm hoping for is for temps to not go below 31F so that there isn't rapid ice accretion.  Any lower than that and we have problems.

[Lightning]

1 hour ago, Harry Perry said:

The 12z RDPS would do it.

Not sure I would have a tree in my yard left if 12Z RGEM solution was correct.  >2-3" of ice.   

[Baum]

42 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Ice is south, snow is north.  What's left?

here is your answer:

PRECIP TYPE WILL STILL BE VERY TRICKY. THIS LOOKS LIKE A  
WIDESPREAD SLEET EVENT FOR MOST.

[WestMichigan]

I'd take sleet over a significant amount of freezing rain any day.

[hardypalmguy]

30 minutes ago, Baum said:

here is your answer:

PRECIP TYPE WILL STILL BE VERY TRICKY. THIS LOOKS LIKE A  
WIDESPREAD SLEET EVENT FOR MOST.

How well do snowblowers work with sleet?

[Powerball]

31 minutes ago, Baum said:

here is your answer:

PRECIP TYPE WILL STILL BE VERY TRICKY. THIS LOOKS LIKE A  
WIDESPREAD SLEET EVENT FOR MOST.

Yeah, if I were a betting man, Sleet will end up being the predominate frozen/freezing precip type for most in the transition zone.

[UMB WX]

6 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

How well do snowblowers work with sleet?

Just leave it to lay until May.

[Hoosier]

From my perspective, Lake county IL near the lakeshore is one of the more interesting/tricky calls in the LOT cwa.  Will they be cold enough for ice?  Will they be cold enough for significant ice?

I think there will be a zone somewhere around there, and/or up through Racine/Kenosha that will be cold enough for significant ice.  It may be where 925 mb temps are hanging out around -3 or -4, so not really cold enough for much sleet but cold enough to offset the warmer than average lake temps.  

[Harry]

3 hours ago, ILSNOW said:

I know that it prolly means nothing but lets welcome the 12z NAM to the cold side

 

The one constant lives on. Figured the short range stuff would do this.. Better get some extra logs for the fireplace.. 

[ILSNOW]

14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

From my perspective, Lake county IL near the lakeshore is one of the more interesting/tricky calls in the LOT cwa.  Will they be cold enough for ice?  Will they be cold enough for significant ice?

I think there will be a zone somewhere around there, and/or up through Racine/Kenosha that will be cold enough for significant ice.  It may be where 925 mb temps are hanging out around -3 or -4, so not really cold enough for much sleet but cold enough to offset the warmer than average lake temps.  

Gotta believe that LOT goes Winter Storm watch for counties adjacent to Wisconsin with Winter weather advisory of Lake Co IL.

 

12z Euro agrees

[Natester]

As expected, 12z EURO a tick to the south, but not by much.  With forecast temps at 31-32F, much of it is going to run off.

[Brian D]

Twin cites looking to rank high on this list of snowstorms with this one. Although it will come in 2 rounds, so if they separate the two, then the second one will probably be the one listed if it makes it. Jan 1982 was a humdinger with 2 big rounds back to back (37.4" in 4 days). The "Domebuster" was notable, if you all remember that one when the Hubert H. Humphrey dome collapsed. Love the "Big Mess" title from last month LOL. You could say that for them with almost every snowstorm.  

Top Twenty Snowfalls for Twin Cities
1.  28.4 inches: 1991 October 31 - November 3 (Halloween Blizzard)
2.  21.1 inches: 1985 November 29 - December 1 (Thanksgiving Weekend)
3.  20.0 inches: 1982 January 22 - 23
4.  17.4 inches: 1982 January 20 - 21
5.  17.1 inches: 2010 December 10 - 11 (Final "Domebuster")
6.  16.8 inches: 1940 November 11 - 13  (Armistice Day)
7.  16.7 inches: 1985 March 3 - 4
7.  16.7 inches: 1940 March 11 - 14 (tie)
9.  16.5 inches: 1982 December 27 - 28
10. 16.0 inches: 1917 January 20 - 21
10. 16.0 inches: 1999 March 8 - 9 (tie)
12. 15.8 inches: 2018 April 13-16 (Thunder Blizzard)
13. 15.3 inches: 1886 November 16-18
14. 15.1 inches: 2023 January 2-5 (Big Mess)
15. 14.7 inches: 1985 March 31
16. 14.3 inches: 1991 November 29 - 30 (Black Friday)
17. 14.1 inches: 1952 March 22 -23
17. 14.1 inches: 1983 November 27 - December 1 (tie)
19. 14.0 inches: 1899 March 10-12
20. 13.8 inches: 2011 February 20-21
21. 13.6 inches: 1966 March 22-23
21. 13.6 inches: 1983 April 14 (tie)
23. 13.1 inches: 1983 December 13-15
24. 13.0 inches: 1907 April 27-28

[Brian D]

Up my way, looks marginal for heavier snows, but winds will be up. Just had 5" from that clipper yesterday, so blowing snow will be a factor.

 

[Hoosier]

Seeing continued ticks south on the HRRR runs from late this morning.  So probably expect 18z run to come in south of the 12z run.

[michaelmantis]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Seeing continued ticks south on the HRRR runs from late this morning.  So probably expect 18z run to come in south of the 12z run.

Normally I'm all for the thread-the-needle being on the edge of precip, but I'm not liking being uncomfortably close to all the ice that is being predicted. 

Ricky made me feel better a few days ago with the oversampling of snow/cold in N IL but this is just a little too close. 

[mjwise]

2 hours ago, mnchaserguy said:

Most CAMs are really honing in on south central and southeast MN getting the 24”+ totals. I’m guessing 18” is a lock for me with some potential of 20-22”.


.

The SREF plumes are fun across MN. Marshall area in western MN seems to be the max. The 9Z mean is 26.8", with a range of 17.5" to 36.8".

[Baum]

44 minutes ago, Natester said:

As expected, 12z EURO a tick to the south, but not by much.  With forecast temps at 31-32F, much of it is going to run off.

let us know if your power goes out.

[Natester]

Just now, Baum said:

let us know if your power goes out.

We have a generator.  It's just that with the wind the house will get dangerously cold.  That's what I'm really worried about.

[Lightning]

11 minutes ago, Brian D said:

Twin cites looking to rank high on this list of snowstorms with this one. Although it will come in 2 rounds, so if they separate the two, then the second one will probably be the one listed if it makes it. Jan 1982 was a humdinger with 2 big rounds back to back (37.4" in 4 days). The "Domebuster" was notable, if you all remember that one when the Hubert H. Humphrey dome collapsed. Love the "Big Mess" title from last month LOL. You could say that for them with almost every snowstorm.  

Top Twenty Snowfalls for Twin Cities
1.  28.4 inches: 1991 October 31 - November 3 (Halloween Blizzard)
2.  21.1 inches: 1985 November 29 - December 1 (Thanksgiving Weekend)
3.  20.0 inches: 1982 January 22 - 23
4.  17.4 inches: 1982 January 20 - 21
5.  17.1 inches: 2010 December 10 - 11 (Final "Domebuster")
6.  16.8 inches: 1940 November 11 - 13  (Armistice Day)
7.  16.7 inches: 1985 March 3 - 4
7.  16.7 inches: 1940 March 11 - 14 (tie)
9.  16.5 inches: 1982 December 27 - 28
10. 16.0 inches: 1917 January 20 - 21
10. 16.0 inches: 1999 March 8 - 9 (tie)
12. 15.8 inches: 2018 April 13-16 (Thunder Blizzard)
13. 15.3 inches: 1886 November 16-18
14. 15.1 inches: 2023 January 2-5 (Big Mess)
15. 14.7 inches: 1985 March 31
16. 14.3 inches: 1991 November 29 - 30 (Black Friday)
17. 14.1 inches: 1952 March 22 -23
17. 14.1 inches: 1983 November 27 - December 1 (tie)
19. 14.0 inches: 1899 March 10-12
20. 13.8 inches: 2011 February 20-21
21. 13.6 inches: 1966 March 22-23
21. 13.6 inches: 1983 April 14 (tie)
23. 13.1 inches: 1983 December 13-15
24. 13.0 inches: 1907 April 27-28

I remember that 1991 storm as I was at MTU (Mich. Tech) during that event ... it was a big miss for the UP.

I was also visiting my cousin around the Twin Cities during the Dec 1982 event.  That was a major storm with over waste deep snow where we were (reports from were we were staying were over 2') and there were 4'-5' drifts that we made snowforts then connected them all by tunnels.  Wisconsin had a major ice storm that took several days to clean up with many closed roads.  We left 2 days after the storm to go home (SE Mich) and there were still major traffic issues in parts of MN and WI.

[michsnowfreak]

14 hours ago, Harry said:

 

Really has been a few crappy years huh? Ofcourse I didn't notice as I used to as I have been too busy doing other stuff. Ofcourse the mid/late 2000s and 2010s kinda spoiled us with them 80, 90, 100+ winters here. This area went 15 or so years without a winter below 60 inches.

Fyi. Back in the 1930-60 period the normal here was around 40 with only two going above the 60 mark and a slew of 18-30. For the time being it's now closer to 70 thanks to the 2000s and 2010s. 97-98 was the last time this area failed to make 40 or even 30.. 

Basically the same deal here. The 2000s/2010s drove the averages up up up and now we are back to reality. And 1930-1960 was the absolute pits for snow here. 

[ILSNOW]

LOT aviation

A sharp temperature gradient will be present across the region
tomorrow. Temperatures at most of our TAF sites are expected to
remain above freezing throughout the day tomorrow, which will mean
that the only precipitation that will be seen at these sites
should be a cold, soaking rainfall. RFD, however, may be an
exception to this as surface temperatures may end up being just
below freezing during at least part of the day there. With a deep
layer of above freezing air aloft likely to melt all hydrometeors
prior to them reaching the surface, the below freezing temperatures
at ground level should thus support a period of freezing rain at
RFD tomorrow, though exactly how long this period will last and
how efficiently ice will accrete on various surfaces remains
uncertain due to surface temperatures teetering precariously close
to 32 degrees Fahrenheit and the expected heavier rainfall rates.
Some model guidance is also suggesting that ORD may end up right
on the fringes of the accumulating freezing rain footprint, but
currently think that temperatures at ORD will remain just above
freezing and result in the freezing rain remaining just north of
the ORD airfield.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Been 3 yrs of well BN for me personally. To the point where I'm joining Jonger's club not looking forward to the season in SMI since it's one long endless dreary autumn.

I would hardly call the winter one long dreary autumn in SMI, even tho you got locally screwed in your first winter in SE MI and last winter in SW MI. Hell in 2021 I had 15" depth and 2+ foot drifts in my yard in Feb.

For Detroit officially, the last 3 winters finished very close to climo snow-wise.
2021-22: 47.1"...50 days w/ 1"+ snowcover 
2020-21: 44.9"...48 days " "
2019-20: 43.7"...41 days " "

For comparison, current 30-year normals are 45.0" snow, 47 days 1"+ snowcover and longterm avg is 41" snow, 50 days.

So while I understand your backyard locally had been screwed to an extent, the last 3 winters in the Detroit area were climo winters which circles back to what Harry alluded to. After so many years being spoiled the 1st 2 decades of this century, average is not acceptable for a snow weenie. Obviously this winter sucks. But with a while to go, it's going to end up in the sucky and forgettable category, not futility

[mnchaserguy]

Trending in the wrong direction for Minneapolis. Mpx trimmed the floor from 18” to 12” and the probability of 18” has gone from 80% to 30%.


.

[SchaumburgStormer]

3 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said:

Trending in the wrong direction for Minneapolis. Mpx trimmed the floor from 18” to 12” and the probability of 18” has gone from 80% to 30%.


.

Sucks when they trim the floor down to a total that still exceeds most of our season totals... 

[mnchaserguy]

Sucks when they trim the floor down to a total that still exceeds most of our season totals... 

It’s a bit of a let down when we go from being close to breaking an all time record to this. Still a big storm but not as impressive as it looked the last several days.


.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Dry air always wins, I’ll be happy as long as we exceed 12” 

[Hoosier]

18z HRRR got some ice down into the I-80 corridor tomorrow morning. 

There will be some dry air to play with early on (dews in the 20s) and precip onset seems to be speeding up, so I guess you never know.