sielicki Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Clearly these offices are still learning to deal with their collective PTSD from how badly the Dec21 storm was called. When you call for warnings a week early and the models leave you hanging at the last minute, normal people are pissed but the weather nerds understand where you were coming from. When you call it during (borderline after) the event, weather nerds will make forum posts laughing at you, and normal people will think that you nailed it. Among the two options, they prefer to be the ridicule of the Ohio valley subforum. Such is life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Coming back into the Metro from the west. Ofc driving in traffic but N side of Ann Arbor may have been pushing 0.4-0.5 accretion. Nervously drove under a large tree that was leaning way over my lane. Looked primed to plunge at any moment. Drooping power lines and some shorter trees with branches touching the ground. Stopped for a couple groceries and power went out for about a minute. Got to see my first ICE STORM WARNING on the MDOT signs. That was cool. Just missing Snow Squall Warning for the complete set of winter headlines. As Hoosier says, some region will be "just right" for the maximum combined effects. Hopefully not too large an area here in SMI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Ice accretion is fun...definitely an interesting one today with places getting over a quarter inch of accretion with air temps at or slightly above freezing for some or all of the freezing rain. Basically, wet bulb temp, wind speed, and precip rate determine how efficiently freezing rain will accrete. Higher precip rates don't accrete as efficiently due to more of it running off before freezing...though on the flip side very light freezing rain or drizzle can accrete at a better than 1:1 ratio to the liquid amount. Otherwise, it's a battle against latent heat release. If air temps are slightly above freezing you can accrete (as many saw today) if the wet bulb temperature is below freezing due to evaporational cooling. However, when the rain freezes it gives off latent heat which warms the surrounding air, so wind is also very important to the equation. Stronger wind whisks away the latest heat given off and can continue advecting in drier air. Strong winds can also increase accretion efficiently due to giving each given rain drop a greater chance at encountering an elevated object (since the drops move more horizontally as they fall when wind is stronger). Typically, it's a battle against the latent heat release and often that battle doesn't last very long if the winds are light and the dew points aren't that low, but in a set-up like this with an actual cold high to the north advecting in a drier airmass it all balanced out fairly well. I'm guessing the efficiency of the ice with temps at or slightly above freezing was not well forecast...we also under-did accretion here in NE Ohio to the point where we had a few power outages east of Cleveland, and much like farther west temperatures had to get firmly above freezing before accretion stopped. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 I've never seen as much ice in 15 years where I live. Birch tree still standing but that thing is creeking and bent over and when the wind starts up it is a scary sound. Roads seem perfectly fine (was out a bit) but *everything* above ground is covered with a decent glaze. The wind forecast tomorrow scares me, only saving grace is my forecast says temps should rise to the upper 30's before much of the wind starts. Sustained winds with the ice on trees now would be a huge problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, sielicki said: Clearly these offices are still learning to deal with their collective PTSD from how badly the Dec21 storm was called. When you call for warnings a week early and the models leave you hanging at the last minute, normal people are pissed but the weather nerds understand where you were coming from. When you call it during (borderline after) the event, weather nerds will make forum posts laughing at you, and normal people will think that you nailed it. Clearly, among the two options, they prefer to be the ridicule of the Ohio valley subforum. Such is life. So, I can say with a fairly high degree of confidence that the December storm underperforming had 0 to do with advisories/warnings being conservative on the southern fringe of this one. With that said, you are correct that the general public (and decision makers) does not like having their daily lives disrupted for what ends up being a busted forecast/not a major event and we do take that into consideration, meaning if we're issuing a warning product of some sort we want to be fairly sure, and usually won't do it in a "could go either way" situation. I can't comment on the meat and potatoes of the forecast farther west into IN/MI/IL, but in NE OH/NW PA there was a pretty notable colder trend at the last minute leading to more widespread freezing rain and greater amounts of it farther south than expected 24+ hours out. When you combine a last minute colder trend (that forecasts needed to adjust/catch up to) and the fact that good accretion occurred during the day with temperatures at or slightly above freezing (not unheard-of, but understandably tough to forecast) I can see why warnings ended up being very reactive on the southern fringe. If you want a lesson to take away from all of this as a forecaster, a legit cold high and advection of lower dew point air into a freezing rain situation can cause it to surprise on the fringes...a lack thereof can cause underperformance. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 So.. 000FXUS63 KDTX 222327AFDDTXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI627 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2023.UPDATE...Reports of a tenth to near a quarter inch across Lenawee and WayneCounties has prompted an upgrade to an ice storm warning forLenawee/Monroe/Wayne Counties. Locals near Lake Erie in Monroe Countywill likely have limited icing, however farther inland (particularlynear Petersburg, Dundee and Milan) icing to a quarter inch isexpected.The convective burst which rolled across the area earlier andproduced a few elevated thunderstorms proved very efficient at icingper spotter reports. Given upstream radar and with the loss ofdaytime heating, icing on trees and power lines should prove veryefficient through the rest of the evening.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 HRRR still putting down 0.60-0.70” of precipitation here before everything wraps up. That should translate to another 9” or so for a storm total of ~14-15” we’ll see how things shake out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, RogueWaves said: So.. 000FXUS63 KDTX 222327AFDDTXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI627 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2023.UPDATE...Reports of a tenth to near a quarter inch across Lenawee and WayneCounties has prompted an upgrade to an ice storm warning forLenawee/Monroe/Wayne Counties. Locals near Lake Erie in Monroe Countywill likely have limited icing, however farther inland (particularlynear Petersburg, Dundee and Milan) icing to a quarter inch isexpected.The convective burst which rolled across the area earlier andproduced a few elevated thunderstorms proved very efficient at icingper spotter reports. Given upstream radar and with the loss ofdaytime heating, icing on trees and power lines should prove veryefficient through the rest of the evening.&& Welcome back to the metro 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 33 minutes ago, IWXwx said: I see that IWX finally upgraded Branch and Hillsdale Counties, MI to an Ice Storm Warning, now that HillsdaleMIWeather has to go out to his car to charge his phone so he can post. The power here keeps going out and coming back on every 20 mins, there’s a lot of damage all over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sielicki Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 22 minutes ago, OHweather said: Ice accretion is fun...definitely an interesting one today with places getting over a quarter inch of accretion with air temps at or slightly above freezing for some or all of the freezing rain. Basically, wet bulb temp, wind speed, and precip rate determine how efficiently freezing rain will accrete. Higher precip rates don't accrete as efficiently due to more of it running off before freezing...though on the flip side very light freezing rain or drizzle can accrete at a better than 1:1 ratio to the liquid amount. Otherwise, it's a battle against latent heat release. If air temps are slightly above freezing you can accrete (as many saw today) if the wet bulb temperature is below freezing due to evaporational cooling. However, when the rain freezes it gives off latent heat which warms the surrounding air, so wind is also very important to the equation. Stronger wind whisks away the latest heat given off and can continue advecting in drier air. Strong winds can also increase accretion efficiently due to giving each given rain drop a greater chance at encountering an elevated object (since the drops move more horizontally as they fall when wind is stronger). Typically, it's a battle against the latent heat release and often that battle doesn't last very long if the winds are light and the dew points aren't that low, but in a set-up like this with an actual cold high to the north advecting in a drier airmass it all balanced out fairly well. I'm guessing the efficiency of the ice with temps at or slightly above freezing was not well forecast...we also under-did accretion here in NE Ohio to the point where we had a few power outages east of Cleveland, and much like farther west temperatures had to get firmly above freezing before accretion stopped. This is an excellent summary. I think this event will also be remembered for the relative lack of impact on most roads throughout the bulk of the event (maybe things will get a little more questionable now with the loss of daytime). It's a good reminder that it really doesn't matter how mild the winter has been overall or in the lead-up to the storm when it comes to getting icing on elevated/colder objects, but it is a factor for road impacts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: Welcome back to the metro Thx. Missed my brown ground. Thought temps would slowly RISE. Apparently that was too optimistic. For DTW...The peak freezing rain intensity (moderate to brieflyheavy) will persist through 04Z before it moves off to the east. Sfctemps will hold around 32 degrees through the evening, then theywill actually drop a degree or two overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Closing in on 100k without power across N IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: Closing in on 100k without power across N IL. I keep imagining if the icing was farther south to encompass more of the metro. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 22 minutes ago, michaelmantis said: I've never seen as much ice in 15 years where I live. Birch tree still standing but that thing is creeking and bent over and when the wind starts up it is a scary sound. Roads seem perfectly fine (was out a bit) but *everything* above ground is covered with a decent glaze. The wind forecast tomorrow scares me, only saving grace is my forecast says temps should rise to the upper 30's before much of the wind starts. Sustained winds with the ice on trees now would be a huge problem. Definitely hoping that bump in temps materializes because my area is a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 11 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I keep imagining if the icing was farther south to encompass more of the metro. Yikes. Like 2,000 individual outages too. Some folks are going to be without power for awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Definitely hoping that bump in temps materializes because my area is a mess. Gonna be a race as far as how much ice can melt before the winds pick up. One thing I'd say is that it seemed like the wind potential had trended downward a bit when I last checked into it. 50+ mph gusts would've been really bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Lots of power outages, trees down, and transformers blown in Wyandotte but so far all is good here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 13 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I keep imagining if the icing was farther south to encompass more of the metro. Yikes. I keep imagining if we had legit cold air and this was a snowstorm. I so wanted to stay up there. Missed it by mere hours. APX getting raked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, michsnowfreak said: Lots of power outages, trees down, and transformers blown in Wyandotte but so far all is good here. Glad to hear. So far, so good here as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just had a branch just about take out my window, power lines and transformers blowing en masse when the wind blows a little even though we’re in a brief lull 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Farm version of a street light.Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 The event has been pretty meager here. There was a very thin glaze this morning, but it never got any worse. There was never any obvious ice on the trees. Even if it was colder, there just hasn't been much precip. The deep moist plume missed east, so we've only received scattered light showers. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 I know hindsight is 20/20 but a good argument could be made that the upgrades needed to happen 6-8 hours ago when it was obvious the forecasted warming wasn’t happening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just talked to my mom. She's lost power as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 The view from DeKalb. Even the grass crusted up nicely. A few isolated slick spots on roads - but they are generally fine at least in town. Still 32 out - GFS seems to have gotten this one right (never really had us warming up during precip the way the NAM, Euro, and other hires models showed). My point and click was predicting a trace, this is in the realm of 0.1"-0.15". Oops. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Looks like one last heavy batch to move through the metro. Alot of outages have popped up on the dte outage map in macomb the past hour. Atleast the temps rise tomorrow so that will hopefully help the crews with the cleanup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Standing outside at the moment just listening to the crackling and crashing of tree branches in the distance. Power flashes look like lightning every few minutes. Several without power, half of my block is out but somehow managed at least for the time being to keep power at my place. Have approximately .50” of ice on everything. Tomorrow morning will make for some awesome pictures. Still raining here at 31°. Can’t imagine much more than maybe another .05” if that before this wraps up. Jackson and Hillsdale got absolutely clobbered. Interested to hear what they ended up with total. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Hope nobody here is without power for long. I’d take 34 and rain all day over a crippling ice storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 15 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: Jackson and Hillsdale got absolutely clobbered. Interested to hear what they ended up with total. One report of 0.6" in Lenawee County is the highest I've seen, but IWX hasn't posted reports yet. Around 0.5" in the I-94 corridor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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